The beauty, I suppose, of rebuilding is that when the process works, tis truly a thing to behold. When the Rays years back deconstructed and pioneered, rebuilding via youth while being willing to suffer a few years, was great to watch.
Similarly, the Red Sox and then Cubs, under the tutelage of Theo Epstein, was as much of a pleasure to see evolve as was it to watch the emergence of the West Coast Offense under Bill Walsh and Joe Montana in the early 1980’s.
One of the things that drives me the craziest is when teams don’t appear to have a plan or, worse, initiates a plan and then changes paths mid-stream. In fact, this should hold true — whether you are an MLB GM or directing your Ultra Team, having a plan and sticking with it at least for a couple of seasons has to be the test.
Anyway, I was paying attention to the Giants and Marlins offseasons, since both teams need a lot of help, and both are taking such divergent routes to respectability.
Amazingly, I thought those teams would be among the worst, although hardly. In fact, per the Vegas line, via ESPN earlier in the week, the odds to win the World Series are thus to name a few:
- Dodgers 5-1
- Astros 6-1
- Cubs 10-1
- Cardinals 20-1
- Giants 50-1
- Marlins 80-1
- Athletics 80-1
- Tigers 300-1
Perhaps, because the Giants are local and the Marlins so spectacular, I paid little attention to the Tigers and their woes, so that can be fodder for another day. But I wanted to look at the change in rosters from Opening Day 2017 to projected starting lineups per CBS Sports as of today.
| 2017 Marlins | 2018 Marlins (age) | 2017 Giants | 2018 Giants (age) |
| Realmuto C | Realmuto (26) | Posey C | Posey (30) |
| Bour 1B | Bour (29) | Belt 1B | Belt (29) |
| Gordon 2B | Castro (27) | Panik 2B | Panik (27) |
| Dietrich 3B | Anderson (24) | Nunez 3B | Longoria (32) |
| Hechavarria SS | Riddle (26) | Crawford SS | Crawford (30) |
| Ozuna LF | Prado (34) | Parker LF | Pence (34) |
| Yelich CF | Yelich (26) | Span CF | Duggar (24) |
| Stanton RF | Dietrich (28) | Pence RF | McCutchen (31) |
Going into this, I figured the new Marlins would be young while the 2018 Giants, particularly with the addition of Andrew McCutchen, were getting older.
The average Opening Day age of this year’s Fish is 27.5, while that of the Giants is 29.75. However, if we pull the youngest Giant, Steve Duggar, who is 24, and the oldest Marlin, Martin Prado, a decade older, the Marlins drop to 26.5 while the Giants jump to 30.57.
Not that a team of 27-year olds — theoretically players going into peak years — will all turn into stars any more than the Giants, who are pushing the edge of the peak year arc of 28-32, will suddenly all come through with healthy veteran seasons.
The thing is, I just don’t see a real plan or nucleus in either organization.
Sure, the Giants have the core of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and maybe Brandon Crawford, and McCutchen is good enough, but not such that he can really carry the team. Evan Longoria is on the downside and was swapped so he would not finish 10 years in Tampa, making him potentially untradable. Belt, Panik, and Pence are injury-plagued. As for Steve Duggar, I saw him at the Fall League, and the outfielder has a good swing, but I am not sure he is ready for an everyday gig.
But, ultimately, San Francisco has nothing in the minors, so nothing more to trade in case the team finds themselves in the thick of a pennant race. Although, after Bumgarner there are four more days of game that need pitchers.
With the Marlins there are some potential new pieces who could be of use among the likes of Magneuris Sierra, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. In fact, Derek Dietrich hit .279-7-42 in 2016, then .249-13-53 with a drop from .374 to .334 in on-base percentage. There is something in just that piece of roster management that spells disaster to me.
Either way, though a plan might indeed be bubbling somewhere in the respective front offices of Miami and San Francisco, I cannot see it.
Do not let that be the case for your Ultra or Dynasty team. Trade with purpose, not for the sake of trading or because a player is attractive to you.
Trade because you see a tangible way of improving your roster so that by draft or auction day the correct set of possible players lives within the free-agent pool to fill your team into a winner. Or because you have a surplus that allows some flexibility, or, finally, if you are rebuilding and see how you can deconstruct and project building realistically over the next year or two.
The key word there is “realistic,” for that means honestly assessing what you have, what is available, what the competition is, and where things might change. Though this obviously involves some iffy speculation, it still is not hard to project which team is the strongest, or at the other end of the spectrum.
In the end, rebuilding is really a lot of fun (well, I get a kick out of it), but rebuilding, especially successfully, can be beyond satisfying.
So, fear not the process, and get into it. Just mindfully!
Tune into the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY network, hosted by me, with Justin Mason and featuring Lord Z every Thursday night at 9 PM ET, and you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
