Not too long ago, there was something special about 30-home-run players. Throughout my years as a fantasy baseball owner, my draft day goal was to grab two or three of those guys and then fill out the rest of my hitting roster with a group that would contribute on average 20 homers, then I’d be all set in the power department. With five days remaining in the 2019 season, 55 players have slugged at least 30 home runs, while the 35-home run club has 22 members. Last season, those numbers were 27 and 15, respectively.
Maybe it’s the juiced ball. Maybe the quality of pitching, especially starting pitching, just isn’t at the same level as in years past. Whatever the reasons, the fantasy value of the 30-home-run player has taken a hit this year unless that 30-home-run player contributes significantly in several other categories. That said, it would be a mistake to simply point to the spike in homers and conclude that waiting on power in drafts is a winning strategy, because it isn’t. The fact that home runs aren’t scarce also means that you will need more of them to compete. In the Mixed Auction Tout Wars league, 12 of the 15 owners head into play on Wednesday with more than 300 homers for the season. Last year, only two teams reached that benchmark. Crazy, right?
Let’s now shift our focus back to this year’s 30-home-run group and take a look at some of the more surprising names on the list. And yes, I know that Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suarez and Jorge Soler have exceeded their home run expectations, but fantasy owners who drafted them were counting on high-end power production. The same cannot be said for the players below.
Kole Calhoun
Although Calhoun has been a batting average liability, his 33 homers dwarf his previous single-season high of 26 longballs set in 2015, which also happens to be his only other 20-home-run season. So, what’s the explanation for this 2019 power surge? When comparing this season to last year’s 19-home-run campaign, Calhoun’s HR/FB is 23.2% compared to 14.8%, yet many of his other metrics, including FB% and Hard%, are similar to last year. In fact, he’s actually making slightly less hard contact this season. I find it tough to believe that a soon-to-be 32-year-old has all of a sudden transformed himself from an adequate power source to a slugger. If he continues to bat under .250, this isn’t someone worth targeting in mixed leagues next spring.
Ketel Marte
Anyone who claims they knew Marte’s 2019 power outburst was coming simply isn’t being truthful. I remember drafting him in Tout Wars several years ago expecting double-digit homers, 20-plus steals and a decent batting average, and he ended up falling well short of those expectations. He’s no longer much of a speed threat but, oh, the power. Marte has more than doubled last season’s home run total while improving his batting average by nearly 70 points. Unlike Calhoun, Marte has age on his side, as he will be only 26 on Opening Day 2020, so I’m fairly optimistic that he can at least come close to matching his 2019 stat line next season. The fact that he will be eligible at two and in many cases three positions adds to his fantasy appeal, and congrats if you drafted him in a keeper league.
Austin Meadows
Despite being a highly regarded prospect, Meadows never hit more than 12 homers in any minor league season, so he is undoubtedly the most surprising player on the 30-HR list. But I’m a believer, and his exceptional second half in which he has posted a .297/.366/.626 slash line while launching 20 home runs is a big reason why. Maybe the 32 homers (and counting) will end up being a slight outlier, but Meadows doesn’t even turn 25 until next May, so the most likely scenario is that he will maintain most of his power gains while serving as a reliable five-category fantasy producer. Even if we ignore Tyler Glasnow, that Chris Archer trade is looking like one of the most one-sided deals in recent memory.
Marcus Semien
Heading into drafts this year, Semien was near the top of my target list. Fresh off an underappreciated 2018 season in which he came one steal short of going 15/15 while scoring 89 runs, he was being drafted as the 25th shortstop-eligible player in NFBC leagues. His overall ADP was outside of the top-200. This made little sense to me, but it also presented an obvious buying opportunity, and I was able to draft him in three of my leagues, one of them being Mixed Auction Tout Wars. Semien did hit 27 homers back in 2016, so I knew there was room for improvement in that category. I was also hoping that he would mostly bat in the leadoff spot to maximize his runs total. Let’s just say it has all worked out rather well for the Oakland shortstop this season. I knew it would work out well, but did I foresee 32 homers, 91 RBI, 120 runs and a .287 average? Not quite. I’ll again be interested in drafting Semien next year, but I have an uneasy feeling that his price might be above my comfort zone. We’ll see.
Mitch Garver
Like Semien, Garver landed on three of my rosters this year. But while I actively targeted Semien, Garver fell to me sort of by accident. I tend to wait as long as possible to draft my second catcher, and when I couldn’t wait any longer, Garver was the last projected starter still on the board, so I took him. Little did I know that with a handful of days remaining in the 2019 season, Garver would rank in the top-seven among backstops in homers (31), RBI (67) and runs (68) while batting .274 and getting on base at a .366 clip.
In nearly 20 years playing this game, I’ve never before accidentally drafted a 30-home run catcher.
What a season.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
