One of the messages often repeated by Todd Zola in his weekly written assessments of our Tout Wars bidding activity (posted on the Tout Wars website) is his personal resolve to be aggressive in his early-season bidding in 2018.
There are several potential motivations for taking such an approach. One is likely the most obvious – to receive the benefit of the players’ stats as soon as possible. Right after that is to avoid leaving money on the table at the end of the year.
Another that is low-place Tout finishers the year before are docked FAAB money the next season. That makes hoarding money until the July non-waiver trade deadline a less likely-to-succeed strategy.
There are others, but you should get my point by now – there are seemingly more good reasons to spend than to not spend out of the gates.
True to his intent, after three FAAB periods in National League Tout, Zola is down to $619 (on a base of $1000). However, that is not the lowest total remaining. Craig Mish of SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio has just $600 to carry him the remainder of the season. (Like Zola, Mish was docked 2018 FAAB based on the 2017 standings.)
A third NL Tout owner, Mike Gianella, now has the third-least money remaining, at $738. The Baseball Prospectus writer was the most aggressive player in the Week 3 bidding, nabbing Colorado setup man Adam Ottavino and Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra for a total of $216.
Because bidding is blind and the top offer is taken as submitted, Gianella had no way of knowing that a total of $35 would have gotten both players. That is also the amounts that would have been paid under the old Vickrey Rules, which dropped the top bid price to $1 more than the second-highest offer.
Though it might appear I am sitting on my high horse, picking apart Gianella’s approach. That is not the case. He decided on who he wanted and what he was willing to pay for them on April 15. When all is said and done, his bids were winners. There is no value in worrying about money “wasted”.
Still, there is risk in any strategy.
At-bats are very hard to find in these leagues. Such an example is Miami’s Martin Prado. The third baseman, who has yet to even start his minor league rehab games, was the cause of a bidding war that resulted in a $105 price tag this week.
Interestingly, Gianella had cashed in Prado for a FAAB reclaim of just $10 this past week, which is why Prado was available on the waiver wire. (Owners of injured players can receive a rebate of 10 times the initial price paid, on in this case, $1 x 10 = $10.) Since Prado could have remained on Gianella’s unlimited-in-size disabled list until activated by the Marlins, I was surprised to see Mike give up on Prado for a relatively small take.
Then again, who am I to talk?
At the other end of the NL Tout league spending spectrum is me. I have $998 remaining – and not coincidentally perhaps, have skidded in the standings to a lowly 11th.
I’d be lying if I said I am following a carefully-architected plan to grab Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson or Chris Archer or whoever is traded into the Senior Circuit later this season. The reality is that I have tried to obtain a number of players in Tout, but have been unable to acquire them.
In my self-analysis, some of it is being cheap and some of it is not being delighted with the choices.
In Week 3, I had three bid groups calling out a total of nine players, including the aforementioned Prado. I had two openings due to DL moves, so wanted to be encompassing.
You guessed it. I was outbid on all nine players. Clearly I was too conservative in every single case. My sentence is to go the entire week ahead with two glaring roster openings. Not cool.
Sure, I can rationalize it by suggesting that none of the nine are going to be major factors this season – but no one really knows that. Certainly not me!
One also has to be realistic about the player pool. In a single-league format like this one, not only is the talent level extremely shallow, the difference-making minor leaguers – such as Nick Senzel and Ronald Acuna – were bought on draft day and are safely stashed away on others’ reserve rosters.
If I don’t get off my rear end and increase my aggressiveness level – even if I am not thrilled about the choices on the waiver wire – I am going to parroting my friend Todd in 2019, after a disappointing finish in 2018.
If your situation in your leagues is anywhere similar to mine, take stock of where you currently stand and get to work – while there is still plenty of time.
Do as I say, not as I do!
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
