Last week, I told you that trading is the best way to strengthen your roster. In the early weeks of the fantasy football season, managers will overreact to the performance of players on their rosters. If you can master the art of making savvy trades, you can cash in on the overreactions.
This means knowing when to sell high on overrated players and buy low on undervalued assets. Injuries can also pressure owners into making trades – especially when high-profile players like J.K. Dobbins are lost for the season. But you have to be able to identify these opportunities.
Let’s start with two examples from the Thursday night game, with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Minnesota Vikings. One of these is actionable, and the ship has already sailed on the other. I’m talking about D’Andre Swift of the Eagles and Alexander Mattison of the Vikings.
Last week, Swift got one carry and caught one pass. He scored 1.3 fantasy points in a PPR league. This week, he carried the ball 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown. He also caught three passes and 27.1 PPR. If you had Swift rostered, you probably had him on your bench.
Don’t fault yourself for not starting Swift. Even with with Kenneth Gainwell sidelined by a rib injury, you couldn’t have seen this kind of volume coming for Swift. He had an incredible night, and it could have been even better if Jalen Hurts hadn’t vultured two other touchdown runs.
If you look up “sell high” in the fantasy football dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Swift – at least this week. There are two reasons for this. First, Gainwell’s injury isn’t expected to sideline him for long. Second, the Eagles’ passing game is going to be better as the season continues.
My suggestion would be to offer a trade to the manager who drafted James Cook. The Buffalo running back had a quiet game last week against the New York Jets. But in that game, it was also clear that he was the featured running back for this offense and got a majority of the work.
I think buying relatively low on Cook makes sense, but don’t buy low on Mattison. The Vikings running back scored 13.4 fantasy points in his first game – three more than Cook. But he was actually terrible, and I was on a mission to trade him before Thursday’s game kicked off.
Fortunately, I was able to accomplish my goal, swapping him for Jerry Jeudy and Treylon Burks. Both Jeudy and Burks have plenty of upside. I can’t say the same for Mattison. His poor play was on display before a national audience who saw that his play was even worse than his 4.9 FP.
If you have Mattison rostered, he’s probably a hold for now unless you can find someone who’s really desperate for a running back and didn’t see how bad he’s played in these first two games. In that case, trade him if you can get a startable running back, wide receiver or tight end.
Now, let me give you eight players to consider trading for, or trading away. There’s four to buy and four to sell. I’ve identified two running backs, two wide receivers, two quarterbacks and two tight ends. Read more to find out who they are and why you should buy or sell them ASAP.
RUNNING BACK TO BUY
Jahmyr Gibbs was fantastic on his nine touches in Week 1. He broke a league-high six tackles despite getting just seven carries. He caught two passes and had only eight FP. Gibbs’ snaps were limited in the first wee but David Montgomery won’t be the lead back in Detroit backfield.
RUNNING BACK TO SELL
Derrick Henryhad a solid game in week 1, with 15 carries for 63 yards, and two catches. However, Tyjae Spears is going to be a large part of this offense. The Titans won’t be running Henry into the ground this year. Trade Henry away before other managers figure this out.
WIDE RECEIVER TO BUY
Tee Higgins isn’t going to have zero points again. He’s a star wide receiver on a very good team that was drafted in the first 50 picks for a reason. He’s an elite fantasy wideout capable of being your WR1. This week was just a stinker, played under terrible conditions. Trade for Higgins.
WIDE RECEIVER TO SELL
Keenan Allen had a productive week 1, earning nine targets and 14.2 FP. But his production was skewed as Mike Williams missed most of the game with an injury. Despite Allen playing in the highest-scoring game of the week and mostly without Williams, he was just average.
QUARTERBACK TO BUY
Maybe Justin Fields’ manager is panicking after the Bears quarterback scored only 14.54 FP in week 1. If he has forgotten that Fields finished as the fantasy QB5 in 2022, don’t remind him. Just offer to trade him (or her) a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa. Why, just keep reading.
QUARTERBACK TO SELL
There is no denying that Tagovailoa was amazing in the Dolphins’ opener against the Chargers, throwing for more than 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. Tua is going to have more great games if he can stay on the field. But he’s just one concussion away from his season being over.
TIGHT END TO BUY
Waller entered week 1 nursing a hamstring issue and was targeted only five times in the Giants’ blowout. Despite limited playing time he had a 52% route per team dropback rate and was targeted on 22 percent of his routes. But his 6.6 FP were a disappointment. Buy low on Waller.
TIGHT END TO SELL
T.J. Hockenson caught 7 of 8 targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns Thursday night. That’s added up to 25.6 FP. Hockenson had two games over 30 points in 2022 and eight games with only single digits. You probably used some draft capital to get him, but I’m just saying…
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
