Felix Hernandez on the road for one start against the Yankees, or Seranthony Dominguez for six games (three v. St. Louis and three at Washington)?
In the old days, that would be a no-brainer. Even with Hernandez struggling, the allure of a potential win and a bunch of strikeouts is hard to pass up. In fantasy baseball 2018, that allure is not so hard to pass. Set-up men and middle releivers have established themselves as valuable cogs on a successful fantasy team.
Historically, non-closer releivers didn’t have significant appeal in fantasy leagues. Going back to the beginning of the NFBC, some closers in waiting were drafted, but more often, teams were drafting between nine and eleven starting pitchers, and streaming from there.
Things changed within the past few years, with set-up men commanding higher draft picks. This year, based upon NFBC ADP, the following set up men were all drafted in the first 400 picks:
- Andrew Miller (76th pitcher taken; ADP 345)
- Dellin Betances (108th; 381)
- Nate Jones (110th; 382)
- Josh Hader (120th; 390)
This doesn’t include the multitude of relievers who were in the running for the closer position prior to the draft. Since the draft, using my Main Event league as an example, over 20 set up men have been added through the free agent process. Many, again, were closers in waiting, and the teams selecting them were gambling on injuries or ineffectiveness to sitting closers. However, even if the closer doesn’t lose his job, these setup men can prove very effective.
Starting pitchers just aren’t going as deep into games as they have in the past. There were 104 complete games in 2015. That number dropped to 83 in 2016, and further dropped to just 59 last year. This year, the MLB has just 22 complete games, on pace to challenge last year’s record low.
As pitchers are throwing fewer complete games, they are also throwing fewer innings. Moreover, with six-man rotations and relief-days, pitchers are throwing less often. Other than a fantasy teams’ top three or four pitchers, it’s rare for a starting pitcher to throw more than six effective innings in a week. Indeed, only 13 MLB starting pitchers are presently averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start.
While strikeouts are up, getting six strikeouts from your fifth through seventh starting pitchers in a week is considered good.
As a result, middle relievers and set up men are becoming increasingly more valuable. Let’s look at the Hernandez/Dominguez question. Hernandez is likely to go between five and six innings, accumulating four to five strikeouts. He has about a 33% chance for a win, and a 0% chance for a save. Seeing that he is pitching in New York, his start is not likely to assist in ERA or WHIP. Basically, starting Hernandez is praying for a win and hoping for something more than five Ks.
Dominguez is not likely to get a win, as he has just one in the first six weeks of his big league career. He’s got a shot at a save (3 thus far), but with Gabe Kapler at the helm, it’s hard to count on anything there. Dominguez is averaging just under six strikeouts over the past three weeks, and his ERA (2.45) and WHIP (0.91) are both positive for a fantasy team.
Looking at the numbers, it’s an easy decision. But, you say, Dominguez is a special talent, how about less dominating setup men? Sure, let’s go to the waiver wire in my NFBC Main Event. These are pitchers that none of the 15 teams wants to this day.
Robert Gsellman (starting on 21% of teams). Over the past three weeks, Gsellman is averaging 0.33 wins, 0.67 saves, 3.67 strikeouts, an ERA of 0.96 and a WHIP of 0.68.
David Robertson (starting on 24% of teams). Robertson, over the past three weeks, is averaging 0.67 wins, 0 saves, 4 strikeouts, and ERA of 1.11, and a WHIP of 0.78.
John Brebbia (starting on 0% of teams). Look, you might not even know who John Brebbia is. I had to check the spelling of his name. He isn’t rostered on any NFBC Main Event team. So, of course, he has no value, right? Brebia, over the past three weeks, is averaging 0.33 wins, 0.33 saves, 4.33 strikeouts, has a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Times have changed and teams clinging to the past are going to be passed by teams that value middle relievers and set up men. I’m going with Dominguez over Hernandez this week, and seriously considering loading up on other middle relievers.
(Edited) However, word is that Kershaw might pitch this weekend against the Mets, which is kind of like a rehab start in A-ball, so since I invested so heavily on Clayton Kershaw, I’m going to sit Dominguez and go with the potential Kershaw start.
Best of luck,
Buster
