There are a number of things that I just don’t understand. Modern Art and the Bitcoin come to mind. Why the words bike and trike rhyme, but Nike doesn’t is also up there. Oxymorons like “awfully good,” “unbiased opinion” and “growing smaller“ are perplexing. Now, as of today, you can add Jon Lester to the ever-growing list of things that are beyond by ability to comprehend.
The man was a truly impressive pitcher from 2008 through 2016, only once having an ERA above 3.75, and four times having an ERA below 3.00. Additionally, in all but one season, Lester’s WHIP was between 1.02 and 1.29 during that time span. Remarkably, his wins were fairly consistent, winning 16, 15, 19, 15, 9, 15, 16, 11 and 19 games during that period. He struck out 152, 225, 225, 182, 166, 177, 220, 207 and 197 batters respectively. Lester was 32 years old when the 2016 season ended and had just over 2,000 major league innings on his arm.
2017 was not a good year for Lester. He threw less than 190 innings (180 2/3) for the first time as a full-time starter. When on the mound, Lester simply wasn’t any good. His K/9 remained strong at 9, but his walk rate increased (60 walks), and he gave up a hit an inning, causing his WHIP to rise to 1.32, the second worst of his career. Not coincidentally, his ERA was 4.33, also the second worst of his career.
Pundits pegged him as finished, and Lester’s ADP fell to 102 as he was the 40th pitcher off the boards in the NFBC. Lester made these pundits look silly, as he posted a pre-All Star break ERA of 2.58, with a WHIP of 1.19 to go along with his 12-2 record and 88 strikeouts. Nonetheless, we were still being warned that regression was in store and that Lester could not be counted on.
Regression has been an understatement. Lester has had four starts since the All-Star Break and it hasn’t been pretty. Overall, his post-All Star break ERA is an unsightly 8.53 with an alarming 1.89 WHIP. No surprisingly, Lester hasn’t won a game in that time. Lester’s pre-All Star K/9 was concerning at 7.1, and that has fallen off the proverbial table to a wretched 5.7 post break.
Had it been all bad, we could dismiss Lester and assume that at the ripe old age of 34 he’s done. Perhaps the Cubs could manufacture an injury and give Lester a few weeks for rest and rehabilitation. But it hasn’t been all bad. Lester’s second start post-break was a gem against the Diamondbacks, with Lester going six innings, striking out seven and walking zero. The Diamondbacks managed just four singles in those six innings and failed to score against Lester. That game had followed a three inning, eight earned run outing against the Cards. Seeing how dominant Lester was against the Diamondbacks, it would have been easy to assume that the Cardinal game was a blip.
Apparently it wasn’t. Following the D-Back masterpiece, Lester tossed two stinkers, giving up four runs (seven hits and three walks) in five innings at Pittsburgh, and then five runs (eight hits and two walks, along with two home runs) in a five inning start against San Diego. Three of the five runs came in the second inning with two outs on a three-run home run by Freddie Galvis after Lester had walked Padre pitcher Joey Lucchesi. To add insult to injury, Lucchesi was trying to give Lester a free out as he went up to the plate to sacrifice, but instead took four balls well out of the strike zone. Lucchesi came into the game with one major league hit and strike outs in 14 of his previous 21 at bats.
It hasn’t been about home/road splits, as Lester has flopped after the break at home (twice) and in St. Louis. Indeed, Lester’s season long home (3.41) ERA is almost identical to his road (3.48) ERA. Lester doesn’t have a history of bad second halves, as his three-year average shows a post All-Star break ERA more than a half run less than his pre-All Star numbers. Even last year, in Lester’s worst season, his post-All Star break ERA was almost identical to his pre-All Star break ERA. His WHIP and K/9 rate between the halves were also similar.
Lester is a problem not only for the Cubs but also for his owners. Even those pundits who preached regression could not have expected Lester to be this bad. And yet he is. Competing teams have to make the tough decision each week now on whether or not to include Lester in their nine-man pitching rotation.
I am one of those owners. My Main Event team is in contention for the league title, and currently sits in the top 60 in the overall. After picking up Josh Hader on waivers this week (not exactly understanding why he was available), I have one spot available for
Lester, Jake Faria and Wade Miley. Until today, that would be an easy decision, and some of you might think it is still an easy decision. However, watching Lester pitch, I’m not so sure. I imagine other Lester owners are facing the same dilemma.
Best of luck, especially to other Lester owners.
Don’t blink.
Buster(follow Buster @BusterH_esq.
