The semi-final week of most leagues proved to be as electric as anticipated and portends well for an eventful final two weeks of the regular season. Heading into the championship round, it’s important to place an enormous emphasis on recent performance and nearly disregard what happened earlier this year. For example, Marvin Jones averages 13.2 FPPG on the season but is at 17.2 over the last eight weeks while Jamison Crowder is at 13.6 FPPG on the season but only 9.4 over the last six weeks. Kyler Murray’s 25.7 FPPG on the season are well ahead of Kirk Cousin’s 17.3, but Cousins has actually outscored Murray by 10.8 points in the last five weeks. In four games since Chicago’s bye, David Montgomery is averaging 26.5 FPPG compared to 16.2 from Alvin Kamara in that span.
When making key roster decisions for next week’s matchup, a narrow lens is required. Don’t be afraid to go against the grain when recent performance, even just the last couple of weeks, warrants a questionable start or sit. Bold decisions like this are what win leagues while safe choices often result in years of regret.
Jalen Hurts Crashes the Top Ten Party
Five of the six highest scoring quarterbacks on the week are among the positions top ten scorers, with Hurts being the one exception. After scoring 19.3 points last week in an upset win over New Orleans, Hurts topped that with 401 total yards, 4 scores and 37.8 points against Arizona and has awakened a dormant Philadelphia offense. A date with Dallas bottom third defense next week means that Hurts can be trusted when it matters most.
Of the other five, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert are all lineup locks with Ryan Tannehill being the lone question mark. The former Dolphin has scored at least 16 points in five straight games (24.4 FPPG average) and faces a middle of the pack Vikings defense, although Minnesota has allowed at least 24 points in each of their last five games. If Tannehill, has gotten you this far, roll with him again.
One name that could bust next week is Russell Wilson, who gets Rams top ranked secondary and scored single digits against them in week 10. Despite only averaging 15.6 FPPG beginning week 10, Wilson was still started in 83.3% of ESPN leagues, the third highest rate among quarterbacks. Many guys are better plays, including Hurts and Tannehill.
Schedule and Opportunity Dictate RB Leaders
Three of the top four running backs on the week, Derrick Henry being the exception, are there because of a combination of opportunity and schedule. This is obvious for Tony Pollard, who took advantage of Ezekiel Elliot’s surprise absence to rack up 18 touches for 132 total yards, 2 touchdowns and 31.2 points. No doubt he’d be in more than 2.4% of lineups if Elliott had been ruled out sooner, but Pollard’s performance highlights the importance of tracking players’ health leading up to kickoff. Start Pollard if Elliott misses next week as well, although it’s more likely that another backup is thrust into a fruitful role. Similar to Pollard, J.D. McKissic has capitalized on Antonio Gibson being out each of the last three weeks to post a season high 25.7 points on 51 rushing yards and 9/56/1 receiving and should be in all lineups regardless of whether Gibson plays after averaging 18 FPPG in this span.
David Montgomery is the mid-round back who became a league winner for some thanks to the production outlined earlier. Games against Jacksonville and Green Bay in the final two weeks means Montgomery will face bottom five run defenses in each of his last six games, which explains his surge. The sophomore has demonstrated how matchups are crucial late in the season and the likes of McKissic, Salvon Ahmed, Latavius Murray and Giovani Bernard should be elevated next week due to favorable games.
It will be important to monitor the backfield situations in Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New York, Pittsburgh and Washington as the week progresses as the health of the number one backs is in question. If any are held out next week, the backup could be thrust into a fantasy relevant role, especially for Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Washington.
Consistent Receivers Deliver Again
For the most part, the receivers that brought you to the fantasy playoffs came through yet again, as nine of the 12 leading receivers are top 30 at the position on the season. Also of note, the leading nine faced middle of the pack competition at the very best, highlighting the principle of playing the matchups late in the season. Among the group, the players that are floating around in some leagues include Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, CeeDee Lamb and Cole Beasley. Davis and Beasley face tough matchups against Green Bay and New England next week but the other two all have decent matchups which warrants starting consideration.
Going with the matchups, receiver corps facing the bottom defenses include Kansas City, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Cleveland and Philadelphia. Not all feature consistent starting options, but this confirms starts for most roster worthy players on this group of teams. On the other hand, strong consideration should be given to benching regular options when facing stiff opposition. On the week, Adam Thielen, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Robby Anderson and Amari Cooper all produced single digit outputs against top ten matchups. Heavily consider benching any receiver in this situation next week. Relevant receivers with this circumstance include Metcalf, Lockett, Calvin Ridley, Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Stefon Diggs, Beasley, AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Thielen, Justin Jefferson and DeAndre Hopkins. Some of this group you have to start regardless (barring an exceptional bench), but proceed with caution.
