Last season’s barrage of home runs is reshaping the way we approach our drafts this year. Power is available up and down the draft board, and it’s going to take more than ever to compete for a top-three finish in home runs in a standard 5×5 league.
But the big swingers are also sucking down our averages, and stolen bases have become collateral damage as organizations stray from small ball.
We’ve seen fantasy drafters respond to the stolen base decline by placing a premium on speedsters, especially early in drafts. But what about the dwindling number of players who consistently hit for a high average?
I want to make the case for bumping this type of player up your draft board, or at least settling coin flips during the middle and late rounds.
Over the past 10 years, there has been a dramatic decline in elite batting averages. Last year, only 12 players who qualified for the batting title hit .310 or better, with another 13 falling between .300 and .309. Compare these totals to 2007, when 26 guys hit .310 or better and another 14 were over .300.
Let’s stop and take this in:
2007: 26 players hit .310 or better, and 14 more fell between .300 and .309.
2017: 25 players hit .300 or better.
This trend goes further than just a cross section of power hitters sacrificing average for home runs. Even the little guys today are swinging for the fences at the expense of on-base numbers. As recently as 2014, only 16 total players hit .300 or better over at least 502 plate appearances.
Within the fantasy context, the elite batting averages we can find at a discount are even more rare: Of last year’s 25 players to hit .300, 15 are being taken within the first 70 picks this year. We’re drafting these guys for across-the-board production — they just happen to be the best of the best in AVG, too.
Here are 10 players who hit .300 or better last year and are currently being drafted outside the top 70.
- Avisail Garcia (.330 AVG / 192.0 ADP)
- Justin Turner (.322 / 85.8)
- Josh Reddick (.314 / 264.1)
- DJ LeMahieu (.310 / 129.3)
- Joe Mauer (.305 / 391.9)
- Ender Inciarte (.304 / 118.6)
- Ryan Zimmerman (.303 / 126.3)
- Marwin Gonzalez (.303 / 114.6)
- Lorenzo Cain (.300 / 98.7)
- Jean Segura (.300 / 78.1)
The first player who jumps out to me — especially in leagues that use an MI spot or OBP — is DJ LeMahieu. The 29-year-old is one year removed from putting up a .348 average en route to the 2016 NL batting title. His .310 mark last season ranked 12th in all of baseball. The second baseman’s single-digit home run totals in two of the past three seasons are probably freaking out the average drafter — but that’s not what we’re here for. Giving up a handful of home runs for 600 at bats of an elite batting average — and 90-plus runs, 60-plus RBI and a few stolen bases — is worth the concession at pick 129.3.
(I have a couple concerns about LeMahieu’s batted ball stats — last year’s look more like 2015, when he produced a .301 average, than 2016 — but Steamer still has him projected for a .310/89/10/63/10 line this year.)
Garcia and Gonzalez are due for some batting average regression, and Turner has missed 30 or more games in three out of four seasons (he could definitely win a batting title, though). These issues seem to be priced in when you consider the upside.
It’s hard to bet on old guys like Zimmerman and Mauer repeating, but Segura and Cain have proven production over multiple seasons, and what’s not to like about Reddick at pick 264? Inciarte is a quiet contributor who chips in 15-20 steals along the way — a poor man’s Cain.
In drafts, I’ll offer a slight bump to players consistently hitting even .280 and .290, along with certain veterans who aren’t on this list, like Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre, who haven’t amassed elite batting averages in recent years but who are capable and very likely to considerably outpace the league average. Others like Adam Eaton and David Peralta bring bankable averages to the table along with enough counting stats help in other categories. There’s a potential profit off injury plagued guys like A.J. Pollock, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley, depending on your appetite for risk.
Some of these players will regress because of unsustainable BABIPs, injuries and other issues. New guys will join the fray with full seasons.
As the bar lowers for a workable team AVG in 5×5 — and with fewer players hitting .300 — a single elite batting average can make a bigger difference than ever.
Follow me on Twitter @_dannycross_
