Sunday was one of my worst DFS days ever. Got that? EVER?
If we actually start with Saturday, I was #289 out of almost 8,000 players in the DraftKings Hybrid Golf contest, where Brian Harman was tearing it up and even though Danny Lee missed the cut, and my other five golfers were there and all around -6.
Sunday was worse and Harman, then his mates, all had bad rounds, dropping me 1,000 slots where 1,073 get a payback.
Still, a hot back nine for Harman and Cameron Smith could have helped around the time the Saints and Vikings were hooking up, but that was not to be as each had their worst round of the weekend.
But, I had Latavius Murray and Tedd Ginn, Jr. going in the night game of my football matchup of 400 teams, and I was sitting at #95 with the kickoff with payouts to the top 79 and a bunch of folks ahead of me out of player minutes.
Before the final play of the game, I was sitting comfortably, in 64th place with 150.98 points, and then Stefon Diggs caught that damn pass with no time left and dropped me to 104th place. And I was even rooting for the Vikings.
A cruel game is DFS.
Last week I hit four of eight suggestions, with Dion Lewis, Mohamed Sanu, Murray, and Ginn, so let’s foray off into the championship games this coming Sunday and see if we can come up with some picks and pans.
Vikings at Eagles:
It will likely be cold, and these are two defense-based teams, so that suggests a low score. But both teams are so good against the run, and something has to give, so in the end I think the air will decide things. 24-22, Vikes.
Adam Thielen (WR): I was one of those lucky or prescient or whatever enough folks to draft Thielen as a #2 receiver in a several leagues, and all the wideout has done is increased his value in my esteem. Thielen is a heady player and I think this game will be decided by throwing the ball in the end, and I will go with the heady player. (Pick)
Latavius Murray (RB): Funny how last week Murray was a pick, but this week he becomes a pan. Murray has had a successful year, but largely predicated upon the Vikes controlling their games and having the luxury of of a ground game. Facing a team good against the run (#2 in league) does not bode well, neither do his 3.9 yard average during the season nor 2.2 last week against a good team. (Pan)
Zach Ertz (TE): I do think it the game, or at least the long game, will be decided in the air, though the Vikes are pretty wicked against both pass and run. That suggests possession to me, and that points to Ertz, plain and simple. (Pick)
Jay Ajai (RB): For pretty much the same reasons I am reticent to grab Murray, Ajai is on the same path in my view. Ajai did post a 4.2 yard average over the season, but rushed for just one TD and against the #1 defense overall. There is little reason to be optimistic about Jay’s day. (Pan)
Jaguars at Patriots:
There is no question how great a quarterback Tom Brady is or how smart and effective a coach Bill Belichick is. And, at some point they will have to lose. I would be happy for that to be today, but somehow I don’t think so, as the seemingly porous Patriots will adjust and be tougher than paper indicates. 31-17, Patriots.
Tom Brady (QB): At this point, starting Brady in a DFS format is much like starting Clayton Kershaw in a playoff game. I need points, and I need a good return on an investment to score a base of points. So, Brady is the man. (Pick)
Brandin Cooks (WR): Cooks caught five of 11 targets, but was otherwise quiet last weekend, and I am thinking the double coverage Cooks and/or Chris Hogan might engage will leave Danny Amendola as the sneaky pick for the Pats. (Pan)
Leonard Fournette (RB): Coming off a big game, Fournette might well be able to take advantage of the focus on the Jags’ passing game, especially in the anticipated close. Thus, Leonard, who showed some good wheels against Pittsburgh, should do OK. (Pick)
Blake Bortles (QB): The Jags are so much fun, and Bortles can be dazzling, but as stated, I think Belichick is just too smart and able to defend meaning Blake could have a long afternoon. This is another reason I favor the Fournette selection. (Pan)
Tune into the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY network, hosted by me, with Justin Mason and featuring Lord Z every Sunday at 2 PM ET/11 AM PT, and you can follow me @lawrmichaels.
