The 2020 NFL season kicks off in less than a week and fantasy football drafts are in full swing. Many leagues have already gone through this process, but there are still a substantial number that haven’t, with GMs actively formulating draft strategies. This past Thursday my home league, a 10 team PPR, made our annual selections and analyzing them provides bountiful insight into the thought process of the common team owner. Studying expert mocks help immensely, however the majority of leagues aren’t occupied by people who dedicate such a large portion of their time to fantasy football. Taking a look at a regular league’s picks is smart if in fact you are playing in a league made up of more casual football fans.
This isn’t going to be a pick by pick analysis of the draft. Think of it as an exercise aiming to outline those crucial early round picks using semantics, game theory and your league mates’ personal trends. Using all the knowledge available is the best way to ensure success in the draft and during the season and is also important when making transactions. If your league has already drafted use this article as an opportunity to reevaluate your roster and selections and compare them to other teams in your league. You might find deficits in the valuation of players that you can work to your advantage.
Below you’ll find the first 40 selections of the draft. I chose this number because it represents the first four rounds, the point by which the foundation for your team has already been set. Team names were removed and I will refer to each as “Team X”, with X representing their first round draft slot.
| Round 1 | Round 2 | ||
| Christian McCaffrey | Car, RB | Austin Ekeler | LAC, RB |
| Saquan Barkley | NYG, RB | Nick Chubb | Cle, RB |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Dal, RB | Kenyan Drake | Ari, RB |
| Alvin Kamara | NO, RB | Miles Sanders | Phi, RB |
| Derrick Henry | Ten, RB | Deandre Hopkins | Ari, WR |
| Dalvin Cook | Min, RB | George Kittle | SF, TE |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC, RB | Davante Adams | GB, WR |
| Michael Thomas | NO, WR | Joe Mixon | Cin, RB |
| Josh Jacobs | LV, RB | Julio Jones | Atl, WR |
| Aaron Jones | GB, RB | Tyreek Hill | KC, WR |
| Round 3 | Round 4 | ||
| Travis Kelce | KC, TE | Lamar Jackson | Bal, QB |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC, QB | Chris Carson | Sea, RB |
| Chris Godwin | TB, WR | Todd Gurley | Atl, RB |
| Mike Evans | TB, WR | Calvin Ridley | Atl, WR |
| David Johnson | Hou, RB | Odell Beckham Jr. | Cle, WR |
| Adam Thielen | Min, WR | James Conner | Pit, RB |
| DJ Moore | Car, WR | Zach Ertz | Phi, TE |
| Kenny Golladay | Det, WR | Courtland Sutton | Den, WR |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | Pit, WR | Mark Andrews | Bal, TE |
| Allen Robinson | Chi, WR | Robert Woods | LAR, WR |
The most obvious initial observation is the run on RBs to start the draft as 13 of the 18 selected in the first four rounds came in the first 14 picks. It’s no surprise to see RBs go early but this many in the first round and a half is something I had yet to see in my decade plus playing fantasy football. This trend punctuates the belief that there is a huge drop off at the position following the top fourteen, evidenced by the seven spot gap between RB 14 Joe Mixon and RB 15 David Johnson, who was a gamble considering his 43.1 ADP. According to ESPN live draft results, there is nearly a 12 spot difference between Mixon’s ADP and that of RB 15 Chris Carson on average. What all this means is I wouldn’t hesitate to go RB/RB with my first two picks, especially if selecting at the back end of the first round in a ten or twelve team league, because of the premium placed on the top fourteen backs this season, as was done by Teams 3, 7, 9 and 10 in my league.
The other notable choice in the first round was Mike Thomas going eighth despite clearly being the top receiver and going sixth on average. Team 8 got a steal as Thomas has been going as early as the fourth overall pick, and still was able to snag a top fourteen RB while rostering a beast who scored nearly 100 more points than last season’s WR 2 Chris Godwin.
The first surprise of the draft came when Team 5 picked George Kittle 2.6 despite the TE going 25th on average. Team 5 actually holds pick 25 in a ten team league but the GM wanted to be certain of rostering Kittle. Despite this being a reach, Team 5 got their guy so I can’t knock the decision. If you don’t think a player you covet will be there when it’s your turn to pick again, it’s best to take them even if it’s early.
Team 2 made Patrick Mahomes the first QB selected at pick 3.2, lower than Mahomes’ 16.4 ADP but still probably earlier than necessary. I’ve always been a proponent of waiting on QB (I took Matt Ryan round 11) but this team clearly wanted Mahomes and odds are he wouldn’t have been there by the time they were picking again.
Returning to Team 5, they again reached for David Johnson with their third pick as mentioned earlier. This isn’t to say that Johnson can’t return third round value, just that the former Cardinal doesn’t have as much potential as the receivers available mid third round. This team also took James Conner in round 4, meaning that they rostered three RBs and one TE after four picks; an interesting strategy to say the least (their next four picks were receivers). Most leagues have a wild card like this who follows a unique draft strategy and it’s important to think about who that might be and where they’re drafting in relation to you.
Starting in the third round, there was a huge run on pass catchers as fourteen of the twenty players selected in rounds 3 and 4 were either wide receivers or tight ends. The glut of quality WRs available here and even in the fifth round is what makes drafting RBs in each of the first two rounds, or a QB or TE early, manageable. There are tons of quality options, which can make it difficult to choose between them, but regardless you should be able to get around two guys in the round three to six range who are capable of posting at least WR 2 numbers every week. Among my favorite options include Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker.
Lamar Jackson was finally taken at 4.1 and I’d say pick 31 is longer than he’d last in most leagues given his 18.2 ADP. It looks like you’ll have to spend at least a third round pick to get one of the last two NFL MVPs. Following these two, Deshaun Watson went 5.9, Kyler Murray 6.3, Dak Prescott 7.3 and Russell Wilson 8.4. One QB was taken in each of rounds three through eight, then seven between rounds ten and twelve. If you’re a particular fan of any of the first six QBs selected, go get him because you’ll most likely regret it if you don’t, as is the case with any player, especially if you’re drafting near the end of the snake. Team 8 planned on picking Jackson 3.8 but decided to gamble and immediately regretted it.
As for the TE position, a total of four went in the first four rounds as expected. The next three picked at the position were Evan Engram, Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee in rounds 6 and 7 followed by Rob Gronkowski, Hunter Henry, and Hayden Hurst in 9 and 10 to round out the starters. Some of the middle group went earlier than anticipated but overall the distribution of TEs was near chalk.
If your league is yet to draft, this piece is best used as an outline. On the other hand, if you’ve already drafted, look through the early rounds and see where teams may have deterred from the conventional thinking and keep that in mind for trade opportunities. For example, Team 5 didn’t draft a receiver until round 5 whereas Team 6 took pass catchers with six of their first nine picks. Teams whose drafts appear lopsided will be looking to make moves eventually and that’s your chance to pounce and swing a favorable trade.
