An unlikely pair of quarterbacks will face off in Minneapolis on February 4th. On one side there is Tom Brady, a five-time Super Bowl Champion with four Super Bowl MVP honors. On the other side lives Nick Foles, a former starter for the Eagles who never quite lived up to expectations.
But, while it’s clear that the Eagles will be underdogs in this matchup, I think Super Bowl 52 will certainly be a closer game than people think.
Patriots Offense vs. Eagles Defense:
Similar to The AFC Championship Game, the next Super Bowl will feature a Strength vs. Strength scenario. What
does that mean exactly? Well, the Eagles Defense is the strength of one team, whereas the strength of New England is offense. Not only do the Patriots have a strong offense,
Tom Brady’s crew is first in yards per game and second in points per-game. On the other hand, The Eagles posses a top tier defense which is much stronger against the run than against the pass. Philadelphia allows 79.2 YPG on the ground (1st) and 227 YPG through the air (17th).
That means The Patriots should be able to move the ball effectively considering the team is second in the league in passing yards per-game and have a plethora of receiving options. In order to find success the Eagles must contain the New England receiving backs, for those players provided a safety valve for Brady. For over the past two games alone, Dion Lewis and James White have compiled a whopping 23 receptions: That’s 38% of Brady’s completions!
Eagles Offense vs. Patriots Defense:
Efficiency has been the staple of the Eagles offense this year has been efficiency, a situation we saw last season with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. In fact, Philadelphia is converting 65% of their red zone opportunities into TDs whereas the 2016 Falcons turned over 64.56%. That efficiency trend must continue if the Eagles want a chance at dethroning the current Super Bowl Champions.
Nick Foles was very inconsistent during the regular season but appears to have kicked it into a new gear. The pro bowler has completed 78% of his playoff passes and most recently threw for 3 TDs against a stout Minnesota Defense. So, while the matchup may seem like it is weakness vs. weakness, when it comes to the red zone the game is strength vs strength.
So, even though this pending Patriots defense is the weakest its been in a while, the squad matches up surprisingly well against Philadelphia. It’s almost insane to think that New England is 28th in yards allowed but fifth in points allowed. This is a clear example of their bend don’t break, so if Matt Patricia’s defense can continue to apply pressure in the red zone, Foles and the Eagles may find it difficult to finish off drives.
X Factors:
The impact factor forthis matchup will be the turnover differential. In The NFC Championship game Philadelphia had a pair of huge turnovers in the first half which essentially sealed the fate of the Vikings. The Eagles are 4th in the league at Takeaways, so that must translate to the big stage.
As for New England, Brady’s late game heroics must continue. We saw that composure in the AFC Championship game and it reminded us all of why he has four Super Bowl MVP Honors. Down by 10 in the 4th quarter Tom Terrific threw for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. You can never count him out and Falcon fans will all remind you that you’re never safe even if the score is 28-3
Prediction:
The current spread is Patriots -5.5, which frankly surprises me a little, the reason being The Eagles blew out Minnesota by a larger amount than did the Patriots sneak by the Titans. We all can agree that a blowout is a blowout but Minnesota is was far the better team of the two, at least on paper.
Super Bowl 52 does have firework potential just on the unique matchups that each team provides. In the end I believe the Eagles will upset the Patriots. The loss of Wentz has proven that Philadelphis is dynamic in all areas. A combination of the subpar Patriots Defense and the Eagle’s hunger for the Lombardi Trophy are going to be the deciding factors.
Final Score:
Patriots: 23
Eagles: 27
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