In a few days, I’ll begin to make the list. After spending more than a month reading player profiles, examining projections, participating in mock drafts and reading some more, I’m just about ready to transfer this newfound knowledge to two sheets of paper. These documents will serve as my main resource during the Mixed Auction Tout Wars draft in less than two weeks. One of the pages is titled “Hitting” and the other is titled “Pitching.” I’m ready to formulate my plan.
How do I make this list? It’s actually simple. I map out an ideal team that I project will fit under the $260 auction budget, assigning each roster slot a dollar value with specific players listed. Along with my primary targets, I include several lower cost fallback options. If the bidding on my first choices exceeds my assigned dollar value by more than a buck or two, I’ll move on to my second choice and use the savings elsewhere on the roster. The key, though, is to have alternate options, and one or two alternate options isn’t enough. Four or five is better.
Flexibility at the auction table is so important. Focusing on one guy at each position is a recipe for disaster, as you will be sucked into one bidding war after another, and before you know it you will be limited to $1 bids. The goal should be to identify certain positions where you would be almost as happy with your cheaper second or third choice as your first choice.
Even though my Tout Wars draft is an auction, I can still use snake draft results to spot potentially undervalued players who could make for strong backup options. So, using the results of my NFBC DC Draft still in progress, here are a handful of examples in which Option B might be a better investment than Option A.
Luis Severino (Pick #26)
Yu Darvish (Pick #51)
OK, Severino topped Darvish in all four starting pitcher rotisserie categories last season, most notably in ERA (2.98 compared to 3.86). But would it be a total shock to see Darvish, playing in his first full season in the NL, significantly narrow that ERA gap in 2018? His rocky World Series outings aside, Darvish pitched well in both the NLDS and NLCS last year and did register a strong 3.44 ERA in nine regular season starts following his trade to the Dodgers. As for Severino, will he show any ill effects from last season’s hefty innings increase? Sure, I’d rather have Severino, but is he really 25 picks more valuable than Darvish?
Andrew Benintendi (Pick #52)
Lorenzo Cain (Pick #75)
The 23-year-old Benintendi has the “upside” edge, and he also has the RBI advantage over Cain. Benintendi will probably hit more homers, but Cain will likely post the higher batting average and steal more bases while the runs totals should be similar. And at 31 years of age, it’s not like the new Brewers centerfielder is in the twilight of his career. Factoring in the 23-pick difference, I’ll take Cain. Will I regret this decision a few months from now? Possibly.
Jonathan Schoop (Pick #74)
Robinson Cano (Pick #89)
Schoop is on the rise while Cano is past his prime, but this draft spot differential kind of assumes that Schoop will duplicate his 2017 stat line. It also assumes that Cano will not improve upon last season’s 23 home runs or .280 batting average. Maybe he won’t, and it’s better to bail on an accomplished yet declining veteran a year too early than a year too late. I guess I’m just not as down on Cano as most are. Oh, and I was the one who took Cano at #89.
Travis Shaw (Pick #77)
Mike Moustakas (Pick #121)
Both of these third basemen are coming off career-best seasons, and overall, their stats were similar. Moustakas launched seven more homers than Shaw while Shaw won the RBI matchup 101-85. But note that Shaw cooled off considerably in the second half, recording only 36 of his 101 RBIs and 12 of his 31 homers following the All-Star break. After posting a .937 OPS in the first half, his second-half OPS was .768. How can one explain the 44-pick difference? Well, it probably has something to do with Moustakas being unemployed, but some team is going to sign him. Right? In the meantime, owners drafting right now can take advantage of Moose’s free agent status and grab him at a discount.
Eric Hosmer (Pick #61)
Carlos Santana (Pick #157)
Speaking of career years, Hosmer picked a good time to have one, and he was rewarded with an eight-year, $144 million contract from the Padres. While Petco Park is arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in the game, Kauffman Stadium is no hitter’s paradise, so it remains to be seen how Hosmer’s numbers will be affected by the move. Still, this can’t possibly be a good thing. Meanwhile, Santana simply isn’t getting the respect he deserves within the fantasy community. The 31-year-old switch-hitter has averaged 26 home runs, 84 RBIs and 80 runs per year over the past four seasons, and he’s now found a new home at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Aside from batting average, the Hosmer vs. Santana 2018 matchup should be competitive. For Tout Wars purposes, this gets very interesting, as Tout is an OBP league.
And who has the higher career OBP?
He plays in Philly now.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
