Previously, I introduced the concept of using Statcast to generate expected stats. To quickly revisit, by taking the Exit Velocity (EV), Launch Angle (LA), handedness of the batter, and whether the ball was pulled, centered or hit the opposite way, we can calculate the expected stats for all Batted Ball Events (BBE). By taking the unique combination of each player’s Batted Ball Events and summing their odds we are able to then generate each player’s expected stats. In addition to figuring the player’s expected stats like Batting Average, Home Runs and RBI I also like to include a valuation system for these stats.
The valuation system I prefer is reducing the statistic being analyzed by the league average before assigning it value. For today’s discussion, the adjusted SGP Value (aSGP) are the Standings Gained Points above the average MLB pitcher.
Example: Starting pitcher A wins 15 games. The average starting pitcher wins 12 games. The SGP Value for wins is 3.0
The Typical SGP Valuation: Starting pitcher A wins 15/3.0 = 5.00 SGP in wins.
My aSGP Valuation: Starting pitcher A wins 15 games – 12 League Average SP W’s = 3/3.0 = 1.00 SGP in wins.
I prefer my aSGP method as it sets ratio SGP’s on an even footing with counting stat SGP’s and it easily allows for position scarcity calculations.
I’d also like to introduce a metric that I use called K%-xOPS. I’ve found this metric to be incredibly useful. Among starting pitchers in 2019 it had a .94 correlation to full season expected aSGP’s and a .74 correlation to actual aSGP’s. Those correlations rise to .98 and .81 when the aSGP value of wins are taken out of the equation.
Pick
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox, Starting Pitcher
| K-xOPS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K% | H% | BB% | HR% | SwStr% | aSGP | |
| Actual | -0.318 | 176.2 | 14 | 3.41 | 1.06 | 32.3% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 15.0% | 4.22 |
| Expected | -0.301 | 176.2 | 14 | 3.00 | 1.06 | 32.4% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 4.82 |
| Actual Full | -0.318 | 201 | 16 | 3.41 | 1.06 | 32.3% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 15.0% | 5.87 |
| Expected Full | -0.301 | 201 | 16 | 3.00 | 1.06 | 32.4% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 6.55 |
aSGP Values based on a 10 team, 5×5, 9 pitchers league. without Win SGP’s included.
Lucas Giolito came into the 2019 season with the highest ERA among qualified starting pitchers from 2018 but ended it as the 13th best starting pitcher, according to my player rater. All of the expected data completely back up Giolito’s break out season, from hit rate to HR rate to K rate. The expected ERA of 3.00 versus the actual ERA of 3.41 suggests that he was actually a little unlucky in that department.
The indicators check out as well. The swinging K% of 15% supports the K% of 32.3% (league average K% to SwK% is about 2.08:1 and the 2:15:1 ratio that Giolito sported in ’19 was well within norms). The two areas of some concern with Giolito’s indicators are his ground ball rate of 36% and his BB% of 8.1%. However, there’s some good news regarding both. While it’s true that Giolito has a low GB% he does not allow a high rate of quality contact, as evidenced by the expected HR rate of 3.3% (top one-third of the league). The BB% is a little higher than we’d like (54th percentile) but the Strike% shows some room for optimism (68th percentile).
The K-xOPS of -30.1% was also excellent, good for 7th best in the league. Giolito possesses four offerings of a fastball, slider, changeup and a show me curve (4.1% usage). The slider is a plus pitch while the fastball and changeup are “plus-plus”. According fantasypros.com ADP, Giolito is coming off the board as the #17 SP. In 29 starts last year (typical full season is about 33) he ranked as the #13 SP. His full season aSGP would have made him the #7 SP and his expected full season aSGP would have put him at the #5 SP. The indicator percentile rankings that I assembled from fangraphs.com include SwK%, Strike%, Zone Contact% and O-Zone Contact% rank him as the #5 SP, just behind household names like Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Blake Snell, landing just ahead of Jacob deGrom.
Verdict: At 25 years old and on an up and coming team, Giolito has the makings of a top 5 SP but is going as the #17 SP. Buy
Pan
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers, Starting Pitcher
| K-xOPS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K% | H% | BB% | HR% | SwStr% | aSGP | |
| Actual | -0.406 | 177.1 | 16 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 26.6% | 20.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 14.0% | 4.49 |
| Expected | -0.451 | 173 | 16 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 26.0% | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 14.0% | 2.52 |
| Actual Full | -0.406 | 209 | 19 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 26.6% | 20.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 14.0% | 6.66 |
| Expected Full | -0.451 | 204 | 18 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 26.0% | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 14.0% | 4.39 |
aSGP Values based on a 10 team, 5×5, 9 pitchers league. without Win SGP’s included.
Clayton Kershaw was the undisputed ace of fantasy baseball for six seasons spanning from 2010 to 2015 where he put up Hall of Fame ratios and counting stats and hefty workloads that ranged from between 204 and 236 innings pitched. Since 2016 we’ve seen the IP pared down to between 149 to 178.3, while the ERA and WHIP have crept up from all-time elite numbers to “mere” MLB ace numbers.
In addition to the usage and surface stat erosion, upon further inspection, there are definitely some cracks in the foundation. Kershaw had some good fortune in a hit rate of 20.5% as the Statcast data tells a different story of an expected hit rate of 22.3%. The additional expected hits balloon the actual ERA (3.05) and WHIP (1.05) to a much less exciting 3.75 and 1.14. This correction would take Kershaw from the #11 SP to the #19 SP.
Further, a large part of his value came from a high win total. Even over a 162 game season wins can be a fickle mistress. But, in a shortened season, expanded rosters and the Dodger’s propensity to utilize their numerous rotation options, wins should be even more difficult to count on. When we take wins out of the equation Kershaw finished as the #15 SP. When we take away wins and base him solely on his expected stats, Kershaw drops even further to SP #28. Kershaw’s K-xOPS of -45.1% ranks 42nd and the indicator percentile rankings that I assembled from fangraphs.com rank him as the #29 SP.
Kershaw still has two positive PVal pitches in his fastball and curveball and a “plus-plus” offering in his slider, he plays for a World Series contender and the man knows how to pitch.
Verdict: Last year Kershaw rated as the #11 SP and, according to ADP, fantasy owners are paying the full freight as he is being drafted as the #10 SP. In his age 32 season, a history of injuries, the Dodger’s judicious use of their staff options and a SP #30 downside I’m staying away from Kershaw at his current price.
