It’s easy to forgive a hitter for a poor performance through 25 games of the 2018 season even though it feels like Edwin Encarnacion is going to single-handedly tank thousands of fantasy squads across the land before April is over.
But a month in the life of a starting pitcher can be more telling — and actionable. Three or four starts is enough time to begin speculating on starters, especially if you’ve been forced to jettison the likes of Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman after they lit your ratios on fire right out of the gate.
The following five arms are worthy of a test drive this coming week with hope that their solid early performances continue. (Each has a Yahoo ownership of 40% or less.)
Jake Faria (Ownership: 40%)
Faria was blown up for eight earned runs in one disastrous April 7 start at Fenway Park, so his line is going to look skewed until he gets to start over next season. But the righty has been solid if not spectacular in three turns since then: 15.2 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 3.00 K/BB. Walks have been an issue early for the Rays’ second-year man, though his 3.22 BB/9 last year wasn’t concerning. He’s getting hit harder and giving up more flies through a small sample size for those metrics, so it’s worth seeing if this evens out. Faria threw 86.2 innings of 3.43 ERA ball last year.
Tyson Ross (37%)
Remember this dude? Ross fell off the map for 15 months after posting two excellent full seasons in 2014 and 2015, throwing nearly 200 innings in each with ERAs of 2.81 and 3.26, respectively. Now fully recovered from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, the 31-year-old is back in San Diego and looking a lot like his old self. Ross is 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 10 strikeout performance under his belt, and his 25.2 K% also looks a lot like his ‘14 (24.0) and ‘15 (25.8) seasons.
Chris Stratton (33%)
Stratton’s impressive spring has translated to the early days of the regular season. The former first-round pick has given up only 19 hits in 31 innings en route to a 2.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. There’s certainly an ERA correction coming, as he’s yet to give up a home run and currently sitting on a .224 BABIP. But the righty is also limiting walks and plays in a forgiving park. If Stratton’s strikeout rate (6.97) nudges up to last year’s (7.82 over 58.2 innings) or his spring mark (28 Ks in 27.1 IP), we could see his ERA easily beat the 4.30 Steamer projection the rest of the way.
Mike Minor (11%)
Like Ross, Minor is an intriguing bounce-back bet, having posted solid full seasons as both a starter and reliever in recent years. The Rangers are giving the big lefty another shot as a starter, and he’s off to a 3.86 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .213 batting average against over four starts and 21 innings. After scuffling in his final season in Atlanta, Minor was lights-out in relief duty for the Royals last year, striking out 88 over 77.2 innings. His fastball ticked up to 95.0 out of the pen, but the 92.7 he’s working with this season is actually little higher than it was in Atlanta, and his SwStr% is nearly identical to last year. The upside here might look a lot like that 2013 campaign when Minor threw 204.2 innings with a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 7.96 K/9.
Daniel Mengden (6%)
Oakland’s mustachioed righty is rocking a 23:3 K:BB rate over 30 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 1.12 WHIP after putting up 43 innings of 3.14 ERA ball last season. The 25-year-old has yet to walk more than a single batter in any start and looks even better if you remove his five earned over 5.2 innings his first start of the year. Mengden’s career 7.62 K/9 might not play in innings-capped leagues, but his current 15.7 K-BB% demonstrates that even without an elite strikeout rate there’s some quality work being done here. He plays in a pitcher’s park behind a resurgent offense. You can do worse than kick the tires in 15-teamers.
Follow Danny @_DannyCross_.
