This week’s profile continues along the eastern corridor, profiling the Yankees and Orioles. Both teams are 14-16, which is unexpected for both squads. Let’s look at six players who are off to interesting starts.
Gleyber Torres: I was bullish on Torres coming into 2021, and if I’m trying to confirm that outlook, I can hang my hat on his plate discipline (K%, BB%, and Chase Rate). However, I’m worried about his Barrel% and steady drop in ISO since 2019. What is tricky with Torres is that the power decline that started in 2020 has continued this season, as he only has 15 extra-base hits in his last 258 plate appearances. I’d be lying if I had clarity on what to do with Torres, particularly in dynasty leagues, as my best guess is that his value is somewhere between what we’re seeing now and what we saw in 2019.
Clint Frazier: Like Torres, Frazier’s plate discipline suggests he might be unlucky this year, as his ZoneSwing%, ZoneContact%, and Chase% are all in line with his 2020 numbers. His .222 BABIP also supports that narrative. However, there are some concerns in his batted ball profile and approach that raise concerns: Compared to 2020, his Chase Contact% is up 20%, his launch angle is up 8 degrees, and his LineDrive% is down 15%. My take? He’s swinging for homers and is pressing to hit the ball out of the park instead of utilizing all parts of the field. I’m curious to see how Frazier adjusts in the upcoming weeks, as I think this will tell us a lot about his long-term prospects in the majors.
Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery is off to a mediocre start, sporting a 4.39 ERA and 24/8 K/BB ratio. Montgomery’s ZoneContact% is up 7% and his Chase% is down 3.5%; couple that with an increased HardHit% against his changeup, and it’s not surprising that his numbers aren’t as strong as many hoped. I’m curious to see how Montgomery’s cutter performs in the upcoming weeks, as it’s his new pitch and the expected statistics are better than the actual ones against it. My take on Montgomery is that hitters have a better pulse on how he’s attacking them and have adjusted accordingly. The question is what adjustment he makes in upcoming starts. If he can refine his approach and limit walks and homers (both up considerably relative to 2020), he can certainly right the ship. Keep an eye on Montgomery’s next two starts (Houston and Tampa Bay), as I sense they’ll tell us a lot about the direction he’s trending as we get closer to the summer.
Cedric Mullins: Mullins’s BB% is up (5.2% → 8.1%), his K% is down (24.2% → 20.7%), and he’s hitting lefties far better than ever before (.432 average in 2021; .227 career). Mullins’s plate discipline has also improved, as his chase rate is down 8% from 2020. Mullins is due for some regression, as the .400 BABIP isn’t sustainable, but the Statcast metrics suggest that some/most of his performance reflects a solid step forward as a hitter. Like many players noted above, I’m curious to see how Mullins adjusts to whatever adjustments pitchers make against him and see what his stat line looks like after a larger sample of plate appearances. Regardless, Mullins is trending towards a player who–when we get to the end of the season–is likely to provide quite a bit of profit on his draft day price.
Ryan Mountcastle: Mountcastle’s decreased BB% (7.9% → 4.2%) and increased K% (21.4% → 31.3%) are concerning, but his plate discipline is mostly in line with 2020. What stands out is Mountcastle’s increased launch angle (10.8 → 16.8); he’s hitting more fly balls, but fewer are leaving the park, and I’m curious if this balances out as year goes along or if the launch angle change leads to a considerably different set of outcomes. Mountcastle’s 2020 stats were due for regression, and 2021 looks like a year where we’ll see how he adjusts to big league pitching.
John Means: Means is off to a nice start (38/10 K/BB; 1.70 ERA; 0.84 WHIP), but it does appear that some regression is coming. His.186 BABIP, 100% LOB% suggest that his xERA (3.14) is a better indicator of what we’ve seen so far. What’s hard to make sense of is the increased soft contact (16.3% → 23.1%) coupled with the increased SweetSpot% (21.1% → 31.9%) and Barrel% (8.1% → 12.1%). Like many of the players noted above, I’m in a “watch and see” mode with Means, as I’m curious to see how the profile balances out over a larger sample.
That’s it for this week. Next week we’ll continue with the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
