This week’s spotlight continues in the AL Central, focusing on the White Sox and Indians. Both teams feature three strong starters, a collection of anchor bats, and a whole lot of question marks filling out the bottom of their line-ups. There’s also plenty of firepower in both bullpens.
Both teams also feature individuals whose stat lines look wonky after 13 games. Carlos Rodon threw a no hitter in the same game when Zach Plesac gave up six earned runs in .2 innings. Both teams have several noteworthy names with an OPS under .650 (Abreu; Moncada; Grandal; Hernandez; Gimenez; Rosario). As a whole, my main takeaway from the week is how easy (and silly) it is to extrapolate too much from a small sample. I don’t envision that what we’ve seen from many of these individuals is what we’ll see throughout the season.
Let’s dig in on a handful of players that are worth watching as the season unfolds.
Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert: There are several White Sox hitters who have garnered more attention for fast starts (Yermin Mercedes), slow starts (Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada) or a lack of starts (Andrew Vaughn), I’m profiling Robert because there are some encouraging signs about his plate discipline that show his already-impressive profile taking another step forward. Robert’s K% is down 8% from 2020 (32% → 24%), and most of that improvement is linked to his increased success against fastballs. He’s pulling and lifting the ball more as well, and his ZoneContact% is up 15% from 2020. I’ve always been below the market on Robert, as the swing-and-miss in his profile has worried me, but I might be singing a different tune at the end of the season. Keep an eye on Robert to see how sticky these gains are, as he could quietly deliver on his third-round draft price.
Michael Kopech: Kopech is off to a great start, and I’m intrigued by how the White Sox are using him. He’s appeared in four games, facing 7-8 batters each time. In 7.2 innings, he has a 13/3 K/BB ratio and hasn’t allowed a home run (heck, he hasn’t allowed a barreled ball). Kopech’s slider has been filthy (72.7% Whiff%), and when you combine that with an excellent four-seam fastball, it’s not surprising that he’s had so much early-season success. Kopech is likely rostered in most formats, but I want to spotlight him because I’m curious to see how the White Sox continue to deploy him: Is he the next Josh Hader? Or will the Sox ultimately try to stretch him out into a more traditional starter? Those questions will influence how we approach Kopech in 2022, but for now enjoy the healthy version we see on the mound, as he’s a great player to use in your line-up in all formats.
Lucas Giolito/Lance Lynn/Carlos Rodon: Let’s spotlight the best starting trio in the majors to-date. This group has a 69/10 K/BB ratio, allowing seven earned runs and two homers over 51.1 innings. Moreover, there are subtle but important changes to their profiles that bode well for continued success: Giolito’s change-up has taken another step forward; Rodon is getting better movement on his four-seam fastball; Lynn is utilizing his cutter and sinker more effectively, improving his already-impressive walk and contact rates. The takeaway here: be wary of hitters that go against this trio, particularly in leagues with weekly and semi-weekly moves. This is a match-up to avoid when possible, as it wouldn’t surprise me if this group continues to dominate throughout the season.
Cleveland Indians
Franmil Reyes: On the one hand, I could write a paragraph about Reyes’s hot start and how the statcast numbers support his early production: His Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel% are in the 89th percentile or better and show continued improvements from 2019 and 2020. However, I’m concerned about Reyes’s Chase% (35.9%) and ChaseContact% (51.4%), both of which are at career highs and suggest that he may be running hot right now and that the start isn’t sustainable. I’m not overreacting or underreacting to Reyes’s start, but am curious to see how his plate discipline evolves (or doesn’t evolve) as the season goes along. If he can make more gains on that front, he’s ready to take another step forward, but let’s see how he adjusts to the adjustments we know pitchers will make as the season rolls along.
Andres Gimenez: Gimenez may be one of the most disappointing starts to 2021: He’s sat several games against lefties and has hit 9th in the line-up in seven of his eight starts. The most noteworthy concern about Gimenez is his K% (27.6%): he was at 21% last year and in the minors always lived in the 15% range. However, I’m more inclined to see this is as a slow start, or perhaps just typical growing pains for a 22-year-old, than a reflection about what we can expect in the long-run. Gimenez is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (although he’s making more contact on the ones he does chase), and he’s swinging at more pitches in the zone (although he’s making less contact on the ones he swings at). The sample size is far too small to justify any specific narrative, but I share that because Gimenez embodies the overreaction vibe I’m seeing at the start of the season. If you are in keeper or dynasty leagues, don’t sell low on Gimenez, as you’re better off seeing how he adjusts and works through this slump than cutting bait for pennies on the dollar. Redraft leagues are tougher, but I’d try to hold on and keep him on your bench, as it wouldn’t shock me if he’s trending in a better direction by Memorial Day.
That’s it for this week. Next week we’ll continue the spotlight with the Royals and the Rays.
