When thinking about the 2021 fantasy baseball season, one of my goals was to spend more time watching and listening to baseball games and less time staring at my rosters and league standings (especially in April…). While the purist in me enjoys that more–always better to be engaged in the game than staring into my phone or laptop–I’m also curious if paying more attention to the actual game during the season itself will improve my in-season management and off-season planning. Moreover, I’m hoping to get a deeper sense for team and player trends that I notice from watching that may be relevant, both in the short-term and in the long run.
Of course, I’m also wary of the small sample challenges baseball presents, as 2020 perhaps magnified the impulse to extrapolate more significance from a small sample than we actually should. As we shift back to longer trends over a full season, my hope is to spend more time with the game itself, not only enjoying the longer, slower, pace of the season, but to also use that to make more informed decisions in the fantasy landscape. In this column, I’ll try to both grapple with small samples and contextualize them as best I can.
So here’s the approach: Each week I’ll profile two teams, teams that I focused on closely throughout the week. I’m not able to watch every game or every pitch, but by zeroing in on two clubs each week, I hope to spotlight players and share information that is actionable–perhaps in the short-term, perhaps in the long-run–in a variety of leagues and formats.
For Opening Week, I started with the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins.
Tigers Hitters
Jeimer Candelario: The Tigers fan in me has been pleased with Candelario’s start to the season: he has put together quality at-bats, his HardHit% is at 58.8%, and his K% is at 23.1%. Many wondered if Candelario’s 2020 breakout was legitimate, and by those metrics there’s a lot to be excited about. However, the fantasy side may not be as rosy as the real-life player, as Candelario’s launch angle has dipped down to 10.6 and his Pull% is down 22% from last year. Candelario is spraying the ball effectively all over the field, but he seems far less concerned with lifting the ball over the fence than hitting solid line drives. Combine that with the emerging information about the deadened ball, and I’m struggling to see how he clears 20 home runs this year. From a fantasy angle, I’m holding in deep leagues and dynasty leagues, as his continued real-life improvement suggests that he can be a steady compiler for years to come. In shallow redraft leagues, however, you may want to move on and find someone with more upside.
Willi Castro: I was not on the Willi Castro hype train this off-season and was stunned to see the helium in Main Event drafts (ADP 217). I’m trying to avoid confirmation bias, but during the first week he seems to be pressing at the plate. His FirstSwing% is at 46.2% (it was 33.6% in 2019 and 2020), his SweetSpot% is at 21.1%, and his GB% is at 47%. If you want something to hang your hat on, he laced a triple 115.4 MPH, so his max exit velocity is blood red, but I anticipate that 2021 will have a lot of growing pains for the young Tigers shortstop. I’m dropping Castro in 12-team leagues and in 15-teamers I see him more as a bench bat than a staple in your starting line-up. If you were on the hype train coming into the year, wait for a good buy-low opportunity in the summer, as I envision his price in 2022 being much more palatable than it was this year.
Akil Baddoo: Baddoo is the feel-good story of the spring, and it’s hard to not like the guy’s energy and approach. He’s already hit two home runs (his first one was on the first pitch he saw as a major leaguer) and had a walk-off hit on Tuesday to give the Tigers a well-earned win against the Twins. RJ McDaniel’s recent Fangraphs profile provides a great overview of his story, and if you are looking for a flier in 15-team leagues, he could certainly be a bench option that you plug in as needed. It’s unclear how much playing time Badoo will get, but you can try and ride the hot hand and see where it takes you.
Tigers Pitchers
Michael Fulmer: Fulmer’s move to the bullpen has been a bright spot in the opening week. He has better velocity on his 4-seam fastball and is utilizing his slider more frequently than he did as a starter. So far he’s logged three innings, giving up one run and zero walks with five strikeouts. This is, of course, a small sample, but Fulmer’s approach as a reliever definitely passes the eye test. On the fantasy side, I could see Fulmer being a really valuable middle reliever by the end of the season, throwing 80-100 innings with a lot of strikeouts and good ratios. Each year we try to find those middle relievers who come out of nowhere and provide a lot of fantasy value off the waiver wire, and Fulmer could be that guy. If your starting pitching is thin, he could be a great waiver wire addition, as there will be a lot of weeks where he’s a more appealing option than an SP5 or SP6 with a one-start week against a strong offense.
Matthew Boyd: There were a lot of people buying low on Boyd coming into the year, and I was certainly not one of them. As a Tigers fan, his 2019 and 2020 were brutal, and there’s only so much Pepto Bismol you can stomach throughout the season. Even though we’re only a week into the season, I’m regretting that move. Boyd has made noticeable changes to his pitch mix this season: he’s throwing the four-seamer less (down about 8%) and utilizing his slider more (up about 8%). Combine that with increased vertical movement on his sinker and changeup, and Boyd’s repertoire is keeping hitters far more off-balanced, leading to a lot more soft contact than we’ve seen in previous years. After watching Boyd on Opening Day, I was a bit skeptical: no home runs, but he wiggled out of trouble and allowed four walks in 5.1 innings. But on Wednesday he pitched a gem against the Twins, allowing no walks and no homers (along with 8 k’s) over 7 strong innings. Moreover, in the same way that the new ball hurts hitters like Candelario, Boyd profiles as a pitcher who certainly might benefit from it. It’s unlikely that Boyd is on any waiver wires right now, but I think you can re-evaluate how you deploy him on your roster, as he’s in the “set it and forget it” realm instead of a spot-starter depending on match-ups. While I’m trying to temper expectations and not get overly excited about a small sample, there’s a good chance Boyd finishes the season as a top 30 starter.
Gregory Soto: I want to spotlight Soto because I think he will end up being the Tiger with the most saves at the end of the year. Granted, that may not be more than 20 (my guess is it lands in the 15-20 range), but I think he is on the strong side of a committee right now and takes on the role more consistently because he’s the best pitcher in the Tigers bullpen. Soto’s sinker/slider combo is tough on righties and lefties, as it’s almost impossible to barrel the ball up against him. My fantasy recommendation is to treat Soto more of a full-time closer than a part-time one (even if in real-life he’s a part-time one…), as you’re better off leaving him in your line-up to get the good ratios and saves rather than yanking him in and out of your lineup depending on matchups. In dynasty leagues, he’s a good person to keep on your radar, as I anticipate that in 2022 he’ll be in the role full-time and has the potential to be a great long-term closer.
Twins Hitters
Luis Arraez: Coming into the year, I always viewed Arraez as a better real-life player than fantasy one, but 2021 might show that the fantasy skills aren’t as far behind as I previously thought. Arraez is hitting (mostly) atop a balanced and deep Twins lineup, and his contact skills are through the roof. What’s noticeable about his start this season is the decrease in his Chase% and his increased BB%, which should ensure continued success atop the leadoff spot this year. With 2B/3B eligibility (3B should get added soon if it hasn’t already), Arraez will provide great BA and lots of runs. He’s likely gone at this point in 15-team leagues, but I anticipate he’ll provide value in shallower formats too. Scoop up Arraez where you can–even if he’s on your bench for now, he’s a great player to roster given the flexibility and versatility he’ll provide.
Byron Buxton: I have never been a big Buxton fan, as the injury risk has always felt too high for the draft price. And while that risk is still there, Buxton’s plate skills look quite different this season, suggesting that 2021 could be his breakout year. Buxton’s Chase% is down 9% from 2020, and he’s already walked the same number of times in 2021 than all of 2020. Buxton previously struggled against fastballs, and this year he’s crushing them. The most noticeable aspect of Buxton’s approach is how much more balanced he looks in the box. This is, of course, anecdotal and based on a small sample, but for someone who has always been skeptical, he looks different in his at-bats than he has in previous years. There isn’t much to act on in the fantasy landscape: Buxton has always had his believers, and whoever drafted him is likely to see a huge profit. As a baseball fan, a healthy Buxton is great for baseball, so even if he’s beating up on my Tigers, I’d love to see him hold it together for the full season so we can see his true ceiling.
Max Kepler: You could copy and paste most of what I wrote about Byron Buxton for Max Kepler (minus the hype…). Kepler is quietly off to a great start this season due to a refined approach at the plate. His Chase% is down 10% from 2020 (13% from 2019) and his SweetSpot% is up 6%. Kepler has historically struggled against off-speed and breaking pitches, and perhaps the most encouraging sign of 2021 is that five of his seven hits have come against those pitches. If Kepler can hold those gains and continue to thrive against fastballs, he’s in line for an excellent 2021. If there’s any type of buying opportunity on Kepler, it’s worth making the offer: his Main Event ADP was 225, and if any of these adjustments stick he’s likely to finish the season as a top 175 player.
Twins Pitchers
Jose Berrios: Berrios and Corbin Burnes treated us to the best pitcher’s duel this season, combining for 12 no-hit innings to start the game. And although Berrios’s second start against the Mariners wasn’t quite as impressive, he appears ready to add another level to his game. Berrios has refined his pitch mix this year, increasing his 4-seam fastball percentage while decreasing his change-up usage. He’s seeing a much higher Whiff% on his curveball and sinker, and the fact that he has had so many more called strikes on his curveball suggest that the pitch will be far more effective than in previous years. Combine the refined pitch mix with impressive velocity (and–from the eye test–a little more fire in his eyes), Berrios has the makings of an SP2 that could perform at an SP1 level this season. Like Buxton, there’s not much short-term relevance here–if you drafted Berrios you are using him in your line-up, and he’s owned in all formats–but he may be a good “buy high” candidate if you need to acquire pitching. By the end of the season, I could see Berrios finishing as a top ten starter if these trends continue.
Taylor Rogers: After a great 2019 and pedestrian 2020, Rogers is in great form to start 2021. The velocity on his sinker and slider are up, and his 5/0 K/BB ratio–combined with lots of soft contact–certainly passes the eye test. A lot of people might be moving on from Rogers since Alex Colome seems to be the full-time closer in Minnesota. If that’s the case, he’s a great addition because he’ll provide exceptional ratios and could easily move into the closer role if Colome falters. In SV+HLD leagues, Rogers could be a top ten reliever this year. So much of the dialogue on closers focuses on role–perhaps even more so during the season itself. From a skills perspective, there could be a buying opportunity with Rogers that is low risk, high reward.
That’s it for this week. Next week we’ll continue in the AL Central, focusing on the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox.
