This week’s spotlight is on two of the more successful small-market teams, the Royals and Rays. The Royals are 10-7, and the most noteworthy stat is that they are 6-1 in games decided by two or fewer runs. Statistically, they are a bit in front of their skis, but they’ve managed to win a lot of close games. The Rays won five of six this week, sweeping the Yankees while taking two of three in Kansas City. They’ve managed to stay above .500 despite a thin rotation (except for Tyler Glasnow) and several bullpen injuries. Let’s look more closely at some noteworthy starts on both teams.
Royals
Andrew Benintendi: I wasn’t banking on a Benintendi bounce back, but I thought the change of scenery might help and that his speed and gap-to-gap hitting profile would play well at Kauffman Stadium. The early signs aren’t encouraging. There’s nothing in Benintendi’s batted ball profile or approach that indicates his 2018-2019 form is in sight, particularly with an elevated K% (25.4%) and diminished ISO (.049). The outfield free agent pool tends to be thin, so I’m not sure he’s a clear drop, but there isn’t a lot to be excited about here.
Kyle Isbel: For the first week of the season, Isbel looked like a sharp late-round pick or early FAAB addition after an excellent spring training that garnered plenty of attention in Kansas City. It’s been a rough stretch since, as Isbel is sitting against most lefties with a 41.7% K%. Isbel is likely to adjust–he’s done so effectively at different minor league levels–but there are likely to be growing pains here with a potential trip back to the minors. I have Isbel rostered in several dynasty leagues and am holding him there, but in redraft leagues he’s an easy drop.
Danny Duffy: Duffy has tossed six innings in each of his three starts, and with a slight uptick in fastball velocity and incremental adjustments to his pitch mix (throwing fewer sinkers and curveballs), he’s seen a nice boost in K% (26%). Duffy’s start mirrors what we saw in 2016 when he finished with a 3.51 ERA and 188 strikeouts over 179.2 innings. It’s naive to think he’ll repeat that, but if he stays healthy, he should certainly outperform his pedestrian numbers from 2018-2020. Duffy gets the Tigers this weekend and then has a big test at Minnesota next week. I haven’t seen enough to fully buy in, but I’m eager to see how these next two starts go. If nothing else, Duffy seems like a viable option to mix and match in your rotation depending on match-ups each week.
Rays
Joey Wendle: Wendle getting off to a hot start is the most Rays thing ever. On the one hand, he’s a bit lucky (.408 BABIP; 1.5% BB%). On the other hand, there are some impressive improvements in his power profile: Wendle already has three home runs (his career high in a single season is seven), and his HardHit%, Average Exit Velocity, and ISO, are all noticeably higher than in previous years. Wendle has had hot stretches before, as he hit .321 in the second half of 2018 over 249 plate appearances. However, we haven’t seen the combination of power and contact skills at the same time. This may be a stretch, but I can see Wendle as DJ LeMahieu lite. Like LeMahieu, Wendle has hit for average before and is seeing more power in his age 30 season. He fits in perfectly with the Rays–just as LeMahieu fits in perfectly with the Yankees. If Wendle is unowned in your league, scoop him up, as there’s a good chance he finishes as a top 200 overall player.
Randy Arozarena: Arozarena’s high K% (32.4%) and low BB% (5.4%) are concerning, but I’m more worried about his struggles against fastballs. His xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA are down considerably, and when you couple that with his struggles against breaking and off-speed pitches, there are some red flags that raise concern. Arozarena’s start feels like an easy case in confirmation bias, as the early profile captures what his doubters suggested could happen. It’s far too early to come to grand conclusions about Arozarena, but keep an eye on the K% and his performance against fastballs, as those are the two areas I’m most curious about as the year rolls along.
Austin Meadows: Meadows’s BB% (17.1%) is up, his K% is down (23.2%), and his ISO and plate discipline looks quite similar to his 2019 breakout season. Meadows expected statistics are also stronger than his actual ones, suggesting that there’s more batting average and counting stats coming soon with his power numbers. Meadows was a trendy rebound candidate coming into the season, and his start is encouraging for fantasy managers who bought back in.
Michael Wacha: I picked up Wacha in a few leagues and will drop him before his next starts against Oakland and Houston. Wacha is struggling with walks (3.48 BB/9) and has been quite lucky with homers (3 allowed, but 5.8 expected HR allowed). His HardHit% and xSLG worry me, and if you look at the Statcast Leaderboard, he’s in the bottom five pitchers in xSLG, xwOBA, xISO, and AVG EV. Unless you’re desperate for innings, I’d drop Wacha and avoid the ratio hits that are probably coming sooner rather than later.
That’s it for this week. Next week we’ll continue with the Yankees and Orioles.
