Baseball season is still in full swing, but it’s time to turn at least some of our attention to the upcoming Football Season. Today we’ll look at some general principles that have served me well over the years. This includes what I do for preparation, as well as some guidelines that play a role in player evaluation.
The NFL preseason kicks off August 2nd. Every year I watch as many preseason games as I possibly can. The NFL Network broadcasts nearly every single one of these games. Every year I watch at least parts of every…single….game. This is a key component to developing my own opinion of players and helps protect me from the influential opinions of pundits and the deceptive seduction of ADP and supposed ‘value’ picks. If you can’t watch all of the games, note that Week 3 is by far the most important week, as the starters usually get the most playing time and this week is considered a dress rehearsal for the regular season. You want to make your evaluation of the skill positions when playing against defenses with their first stringers still on the pitch.
A lot of running backs can break a lot of tackles while facing scrubs, and many a wide receiver can outrun cornerbacks that are about to be cut. So week 3 is preeminent, with the second week being the next most important to watch. Get familiar with depth charts and focus on all the position battles, as well as players changing teams, and any rookies that have a chance to make a splash. If you need to be economical with your viewing time, then cut out the obvious players. You don’t need to watch Tom Brady to know that he’s going to be good. He’s a proven commodity. Similarly, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell’s numbers will be there. Focus more on the unknown commodities, both for this year AND next year. Take notes. Last year Mack Hollins and Joe Williams stood out as potential impact players. They did nothing during the regular season. But I still have my notes from the 2017 preseason to point me in the right direction this year. For whatever reason, Williams was in Mike Shanahan’s doghouse, but whoever gets the lion’s share of snaps in the 49er backfield will be an RB1, making Jerrick McKinnon’s(previous back surgery) handcuff plenty valuable, especially in deeper draft champions leagues. So when you scout during the preseason, look towards 2019 as well.
Pay attention to players coming off of injury. Are they 100%? Or have they lost a step. Hyped rookie running backs – do they block well? Do they understand protection schemes? Elite runners that don’t know quarterback protection schemes can spend a lot of time on the sidelines. Similarly, with young receivers, can they block? Are they good route runners? If not, they might have low snap numbers, which puts a low ceiling on reception numbers. Generally I lean towards big receivers, 6’2” or taller.
Yes, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill and Doug Baldwin are only 5’10”, and Odell Beckham only an inch taller, but that’s still not the norm. With inexperienced players having little to no NFL track record, the percentages favor wideouts with size. Again, this is just a general rule, with exceptions, but it may save you from burning an early pick on the next Tavon Austin. Ideally tailbacks will be between 69 and 72 inches tall. That means I’m not on the Tarik Cohen bandwagon this year. Getting the Bears talented scat back in the closing rounds in 2017 NFFC drafts was one thing, the price tag of a late 5th round pick in 2018 is too expensive. Quarterbacks should stand at least 6’2” tall or they will have trouble seeing over the Line and be prone to batted balls from the same.
I recommend fading first year Tight Ends. There’s a lot to learn at this position and players that are wet behind the ears take a while to learn all of the ropes. Evan Engram’s success last year doesn’t change the fact that drafting rookie Tight Ends is a low percentage play. While we’re addressing the position, one rule I never break, is to never draft TE’s from Cincinnati, Green Bay, or Arizona. That takes Jimmy Graham off my board. Push your QB1 until the 7th or 8th round, focusing on Running Backs and Wide Receivers for the first half dozen rounds or so. Tailbacks and wideouts are the meat and potatoes of fantasy football and the foundation of most championship teams.
Follow Greg @Liquidhippo.
