The Arizona Fall League started up last week, after taking 2020 off due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While there are a few marquee names participating, like Spencer Torkelson and Marco Luciano, it always seems like a few less-heralded prospects put themselves on the map with strong performances in the AFL. These are six players (three batters, three pitchers) that I’ll be watching to make that jump this fall.
Batters
Curtis Mead – Tampa Bay Rays
Mead finished the season with a .911 OPS across low/high A and a handful of at-bats in Triple-A (where he went 6-for-14 with a home run). The Australian-born infielder was signed as a minor league free agent by the Phillies in 2017, and traded to the Rays in 2019 for Christopher Sanchez. As is often the case with Rays prospects, Mead seemed to come out of nowhere this season. He has a very solid hit tool, thanks to a smooth, compact swing and a career strikeout rate below 20%.
His swing, in addition to his 6-foot-2 170 lb. frame, lead to decent power projection as well. Mead certainly offered a preview of that this season, with 15 home runs. With a player as raw as Mead, it’s always nice to see the hit tool play before power, and it’ll can continue to build on his improvements as a power hitter, without sacrificing his high-contact approach. Mead is a decent fielder with a chance to stick at 3B long-term, though he certainly carries the risk (though, mitigated with the coming universal DH) of shifting to first.
Carlos Cortes – New York Mets
This is my homer pick. Honestly, I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Cortes as a prospect. Drafted as a second basemen out of South Carolina in the third round of the 2018 draft, Cortes transitioned to the outfield this season at Double-A. Like Mead, Cortes is a hit-tool first batter, with a career minor league slash line of .257/.335/.423 and a very impressive sub-17% strikeout rate. However, it’s much harder to project any significant power from Cortes, as he stands only 5-foot-7. That said, some scouts do see some raw power potential, backed by the 14 home runs he hit this season. Currently, Cortes’ profile reminds me a lot of Jeff McNeil as a prospect; very little hype, despite elite bat-to-ball skill and developing power, with some questions on the defensive side.
Joey Wiemer – Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee’s farm system was one of the most surprising to me this year, in terms of player development. This certainly starts at the top, with guys like Hedbert Perez and Ethan Small. However, it also includes players like Joey Wiemer, who wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a fourth round pick out of Cincinnati in 2020. Wiemer posses the type of potential that is incredibly rare in a mid-round college prospect. At 6-foot-5 and 215 lbs, there’s clear power projection, and Milwaukee bet on his ability to tap into it, despite questions of his ability to hit consistently.
Wiemer responded with a .295/.403/.556 slash line across low/high A in 2021, with 27 home runs. Oh, and he stole 30 bases in 36 attempts. So yes, this is a player to be excited about. He’ll continue to face questions about his hit tool until he shows the ability to make contact at the higher levels, as his swing is certainly unconventional (expect to see the Hunter Pence comparison in anything you ever read about Wiemer). That said, there is certainly a path to the majors as a corner outfielder – his arm strength rates as his strongest tool, above both power and speed.
Pitchers
Caleb Kilian – Chicago Cubs
An eighth round pick of the Giants in 2019, Kilian was the main piece acquired by the Chicago Cubs in the Kris Bryant trade, and one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects this season. Kilian opened the year in High-A, where he was absolutely dominant in four starts. He allowed only three earned runs in 21 1/3 innings, recording a WHIP of 0.46 (nine hits and a single walk) and 32 strikeouts. Kilian continued to open eyes in Double-A, with a 2.75 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts over 78 2/3 innings.
Kilian has both the pitch mix and durability to project as a starter long-term. His rise in 2021 coincides with increased fastball velocity (maxing at 98), in addition to an improved curveball, changeup, and cutter. If Kilian can develop his secondary pitches, while maintaining the excellent command he’s demonstrated, it won’t be surprising at all to see him push the Cubs rotation at some point in 2022.
Landon Knack – LA Dodgers
The Dodger’s ability to develop pitchers has been well-noted. Knack pit himself on the draft map as a senior with East Tennessee State, and was drafted with the Dodger’s second round pick in 2020. The combination of system and potential make Knack an incredibly exciting prospect, and he met my expectations in 2021, to say the least. Across High-A and Double-A, Knack recorded 82 strikeouts while walking only eight (yes, eight) over 62 1/3 innings. To put it simply, that is insane. Knack’s top-end command lead to a 2.50 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 39.2 innings at High-A. The home run ball hurt him a little following a promotion to Double-A (six in as many starts), where Knack posted a 4.37 ERA. However, his WHIP was still an impressive 0.97 and he maintained a 27/3 K/BB ratio.
Knack seems to profile best as a future reliever, which carries significant risk for fantasy purposes. He has an electric fastball, sitting in the high 90’s, paired with a solid slider. He also throws a curveball and changeup that have shown improvement. Therefore, if Knack’s secondary pitches are able to develop like his fastball has, he could position himself to remain in the rotation long-term. With the Dodgers knack (ha) for maximizing pitching talent, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.
Cole Henry – Washington Nationals
Henry doesn’t have the same hype as fellow Nats pitching prospects Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge, but remains an intriguing prospect in his own right. A second round pick in 2020 following his Freshman season at LSU, injuries have been the biggest knock on Henry early in his career. Unfortunately, that trend continued in 2021, with an elbow injury suffered in early August. Prior to the injury however, Henry looked incredibly sharp in High-A. He pitched to a 1.88 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over 43 innings. He also struck out 63, while walking only 11.
Henry’s arsenal will allow him to remain a starter moving forward. He features both a four and two-seam fastball, which sit in the mid 90’s. He also features an advanced curveball and changeup. Ultimately, health will be the biggest factor in determining whether or not Henry can reach his potential as a mid-rotation starter. It’ll be interesting to see if Henry can match his early season performance against some older pitching prospects in the AFL.
