It’s never too early to start looking under the hood of struggling bullpens across the league. Dominant relievers have more roto value than ever, so it’s worth rostering these guys for the strikeouts and ratios now, with potential saves later.
I use three main criteria for closer speculation: a current closer struggling, a dominant set-up man outperforming his team’s closer or a stopper likely to be traded at the deadline, bumping everyone in the pen up a notch.
There are already a few situations worth getting in on.
Tampa Bay
Surely, there was an offseason trade offer the Rays brass wishes it had accepted after witnessing Alex Colome struggle to a 9.00 ERA and 2.86 WHIP through eight appearances. The righty has saved four-of-six opportunities, but he’s given up runs in two of them and batters are hitting .424 off him. Even if Colome turns things around, he’s a likely July trade candidate.
So who’s next in line? Veteran Sergio Romo (five-of-six scoreless appearances, 1.50 ERA) might be next up if things don’t get straightened out soon, but he could also be worth flipping at the deadline. The intriguing arm here is Jose Alvarado, a young lefty averaging 98.7 mph with the fastball and currently sporting a 1.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The second-year man graduated to eighth-inning duty during a win April 18, making quick work of the Rangers in front of Colome, who allowed a run on two hits with a walk before nailing down the save.
Detroit
The Tigers have high hopes for 23-year-old Joe Jimenez, who put up a 13.0 K/9 in the minors and made his MLB debut last season. Longballs led to a 12.32 ERA over the 19.0-inning sample, but that has subsided as the righty has yet to allow a bomb through 7.2 innings this season. He’s giving up an inordinate amount of fly balls (65%) over this small sample size, but it’s not hurting him thanks to a minuscule 15% hard contact rate.
Jimenez is currently setting up Shane Greene, who has thrown 6.2 innings of 4.05 ERA and 1.20 WHIP en route to three saves in four chances. With two full years of team control after 2018, the Tigers would certainly put a high price tag on Greene if his name pops up in July, but the team should certainly consider offers. That’s if Greene can hold the job all season — if not, Jimenez is up.
Atlanta
A.J. Minter’s 2018 stats are slightly skewed by the fact that he didn’t punch out a batter through his first 3.1 innings pitched. But that changed quickly — over his last 5.1 IP, the 24-year-old has eights Ks against three walks. He’s yet to give up a home run and is sporting a 0.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP overall.
The strikeout upside is very real — in his 15-inning debut last season, Minter whiffed 26 and walked only two. Atlanta closer Arodys Vizcaino has been fine so far (2.08 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1 save), but he’s basically been a fill-in stopper for the past three seasons with save talles of 9, 10 and 14. The future belongs to Minter, and he can help us now.
Houston
There’s a saves free-for-all going on in Houston these days. The defending world champs have split four saves among three relievers so far, and something’s up with last year’s leading man Ken Giles, who has only two strikeouts through five innings after nailing down 34 saves with an 11.92 K/9 last year. Chris Devenski (1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 2 saves) and Brad Peacock (4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 1 save) are in the mix, but Houston manager A.J. Hinch isn’t afraid to call on his lesser-used guys — last year, five relievers split 11 saves outside of Giles’ count.
Joe Smith (30 career saves), Will Harris (16 career saves) and Hector Rondon (77 career saves) all have closing experience and are virtually free to test drive in most leagues.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_
