For fantasy baseball owners, the All-Star break should be a time to, well, take a break. Take a break from scanning box scores and your league’s standings. Give your eyes a rest. Maybe listen to some music or spend more uninterrupted time with family and friends. For a few days, you won’t need to politely excuse yourself in the middle of a conversation to grab your phone and check if the runner that your struggling pitcher left on base before getting pulled from the game ended up scoring, further bloating your team’s ERA. And then, if asked what exactly you were checking on your phone, instead of telling the truth (because it would be too embarrassing to tell the truth), you mutter something about wanting to know the temperature outside.
The All-Star break should be a time to take that break; but, unfortunately, my break usually lasts about a day before I start to think about the second half. Out of curiosity, one of the things I like to do is look at player stats, mostly hitter stats, from the previous season’s second half to refresh my memory as to which guys ranked among the league leaders in the various roto categories. Maybe this little exercise won’t amount to much, but if I own any of these players, knowing that he performed exceptionally well in the second half last season would at least slightly increase my confidence in him. If I don’t own the player, I might be more motivated to trade for him.
OK, time to take a trip back to the second half of 2017 and look at five hitters (one for each standard category) who ranked among the top-10.
Batting Average (minimum 200 at-bats)
Adrian Beltre (.329) – The 39-year-old Beltre has already made two trips to the DL this season due to hamstring issues, but when healthy enough to play, the future Hall of Famer has been a solid contributor in the batting average department (.288). However, his counting stats leave a lot to be desired, even factoring in the missed time. Through 63 games, Beltre has managed to hit only four homers to go along with 26 RBIs and 20 runs scored. He also sports the lowest ISO (.111) and highest strikeout rate (21.1%) of his career. If we have learned anything in recent years, we know that underestimating Beltre is dangerous, but it’s hard to imagine him all of a sudden reemerging as a fantasy force. He’s still worth a roster spot in mixed leagues, but there’s not a whole lot to be excited about going forward.
Home Runs
Brian Dozier (21) – Dozier was widely viewed as a surefire top-5 fantasy second baseman heading into this season, and while the Twins’ keystone man has been far from a bust, Dozier’s owners have to be a little disappointed. His .230 AVG is more than 40 points lower than last season’s mark and with only 15 homers through 91 games, he will need to pick up the pace in order to post his third straight 30-plus home run season. The good news is that Dozier’s 21-homer second-half total last year falls well short of the 28 home runs that he launched following the All-Star break in 2016, so a third consecutive second-half power outburst would not be a total surprise.
RBI
Nick Castellanos (55) – I guess Castellanos’ 2017 breakout campaign, which was punctuated by a red-hot month of September (.368 AVG, 7 HR, 25 RBI), was no fluke. The 26-year-old, who is batting .306 with 15 homers and 56 RBIs through 92 games this season, has now officially established himself as a 25-100 guy who can also post a strong average. And he’s making further strides in the plate discipline department, as evidenced by his career-high walk rate (6.7%) and career-low K/BB ratio (3.19). What’s not to like?
Runs
Tommy Pham (53) – I avoided Pham in drafts this spring, coming to the conclusion that his price tag was too high when taking into account his rather thin track record. As it turns out, I was partially right. While Pham’s 59 runs places him in the top-20 in the category, he carries a lowly .240 batting average into the final weekend before the break. Although he’s launched 13 home runs, only four of those longballs have come since the beginning of June. The nine steals are nice. The significantly increased K/BB ratio compared to a year ago (1.65 to 2.37)? Not so much. The bottom line is that Pham owners have not gotten what they paid for, so I was right about that.
Stolen Bases
Whit Merrifield (20) – Like with Pham, my relatively conservative draft day approach that heavily values a player’s track record steered me away from Merrifield this year. But unlike with Pham, I’m sort of regretting the fact that I don’t own any shares of the Kansas City second baseman. Speedsters who hit for a high average are rare these days, and Merrifield is certainly one of those guys. He boasts a .307 AVG through 90 games this season and after swiping 20 bags in the second half last year, he’s racked up 17 thefts so far in 2018. Barring a serious second-half power surge, Merrifield isn’t going to match last season’s 19 home runs, but did you really draft him for homers? I didn’t think so.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn
