Last time, I went over the adjustments I was making to some of the biggest names that switched teams this offseason, Trevor Bauer, George Springer, Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor. In this edition, I’d like to go over some players that are not necessarily household names, but nevertheless are likely to make a big impact on the fantasy baseball world. There’s no better place to start than a guy with one of the largest positive deltas in offensive environment, or as I’m calling it to those who will listen, the reverse-Arenado…
CJ Cron
Let’s get this out of the way. CJ Cron isn’t a particularly useful real life baseball player. He isn’t a good defender, and now being in the National League, he’ll have to at least attempt to be a defender in order to get on the field. It’s not ideal, and he may actually get fewer plate appearances due to the lack of defensive ability, but man is he going to be a force to be reckoned with in the lineup at Coors Field.
Like many others, Cron had a down year at the plate in 2020, although it comes with an asterisk as he only played in 13 games due to injury. Now healthy, his projections given his new surroundings have his ADP shooting up like Bitcoin over the same period. While I was able to nab him with the 367th pick of an NFBC DC back in January, his ADP is steadily creeping into the 200s and I suspect will continue to rise the closer we get to opening day.
I won’t spend a lot of time on Coors and why that causes all of us to view Cron’s projections through rose colored glasses. If you’re reading this, you know how much of an impact Coors can have on offensive output. But it also shouldn’t be understated how bad of an offense he is coming from, and how much the average fantasy player seems to be overreacting to his down production over a hilariously small sample in 2020. Suffice it to say, I am as bullish as they come on the CJ Cron bounce back.
Marcus Semien
Not a superstar, but certainly a well-known fantasy commodity, Semien’s move to the Blue Jays and their new digs in Dunedin, FL is another reason to get very excited. Not only would just about anywhere be a better hitter’s park than Oakland, but the Jays new park in particular also seems projects to be especially hitter friendly.
That park boost coupled with a young, dangerous lineup and a decent spot in that order could yield a return to the 2019 version of Semien, he of the 30-plus home runs and double digit stolen bases. What’s more, the presence of Bo Bichette necessitates that Semien log the vast majority of his time at 2B, which will in most formats grant him the coveted keystone sack cross-over 2B/SS eligibility. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this were one of the factors that has raised his ADP so much so that he is being taken just ahead of Swiss-army knife stalwarts Dylan Moore and Tommy Edman.
Semien is another not quite under-the-radar player that the fantasy community may still not be adjusting quite enough for his change in circumstance, but I will be going out of my way to load up on Semien until the price gets to be untenable.
Anthony DeSclafani/Alex Wood/Aaron Sanchez
Yes, I realize the triumvirate of potential Giants innings eaters are all different players. But do you really know which of them is going to get a decent amount of innings this year? I sure don’t. Maybe none of them do? Maybe they all do? What I do know, though, is that San Francisco has been very adept lately at taking reclamation projects such as Drew Pomeranz and Kevin Gausman and turning them into a useful trade chip and bona fide ace respectively.
We know they will get there differently. DeSclafani has had elite control paired with acceptable if not spectacular K% throughout his career, but took a step back in both in 2020. With superior defense and much more pitcher-friendly ballpark, he should have every opportunity to improve both in 2021. Wood has had success with deception, but often struggles when he is asked to deliver sustained innings in a game or a full season’s worth of starts. And Sanchez, while he has shown flashes of brilliance and was touching 98 on the gun during his showcase, can be charitably described as having plenty of potential, but I’d stop short of any outlook more positive than that.
So, will the Giants hit on one of these guys? Recent history shows a reliable track record, and so the odds are good. If forced to choose, I think Sanchez has the most underlying talent and untapped potential, and for that reason I would lean his way. But if you are drafting in a number of leagues, you would be wise to spread your allocations fairly evenly across all three of these SPs, especially since they can all be had for the same low 500s ADP.
Hunter Renfroe
It is hard to put into words just how good of a fit for Fenway Park Renfroe is. While it’s true that lots of hitters are good fits for Fenway Park, a powerful RHB that strikes out plenty but also pulls the ball a ton and hits the cover off the ball is probably an ideal skill set. With a high pull %, a high hard hit % and a high fly ball % skill set already starting to emerge, it’s possible the Red Sox may have found one of the best bargains available in free agency.
While it’s true that Boston’s offense isn’t what it once was with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr all having departed, what takes away in lineup potency, it makes up for in opportunity due to all three of those departures being in the outfield, Renfroe’s primary position. If he can approach 500+ PAs, it ought to yield 25+ home runs with considerable upside.
While the industry as a whole seems to be ambivalent on Renfroe despite his new surroundings, this is likely due to, once again, the recency bias of an extremely poor 2020 season. He certainly struggled with Tampa, putting up a career low batting average of .156, driven primarily by an unthinkable .141 BABIP. However, his K% and BB% didn’t raise any alarms, and he actually struck out less last season than what we would expect given his baseline. The power was also still there, with Renfroe having put up a .238 ISO and 8 HRs over 139 PAs. If he can manage to flip his hard and medium contact back to what we have seen the rest of his career, that power will play tremendously well at Fenway, and more than likely, from a spot in the heart of a still very good Red Sox lineup.
