Three weeks of the NFL season is enough time to start seeing trends, and with bye weeks starting this week it’s also the final time to check year-to-date stats without considering the number of games played. Certain teams are already giving up tons of rushing yards, high per-carry rates and lots of TDs on the ground.
Let’s see where we might find some fantasy points on the ground in Week 4.
Bengals at Falcons
We could be looking at yet another shootout in Atlanta, where two solid offenses and suspect run Ds face off.
The Bengals were gashed by Carolina for 230 yards last week, with Christian McCaffrey putting up 184 on just 28 carries (6.6 Y/A). Devonta Freeman returned to the Falcons’ practice this week but is no sure thing for Sunday, so Tevin Coleman is again looking at a heavy workload in a solid matchup.
Coleman didn’t go nuts last week, finishing the day against New Orleans with just 33 yards on 15 carries, but he caught a touchdown pass and last week put up 107 yards on 16 totes. Coleman also punched in a TD in Week 1. We’ve already seen the Falcons offense support two usable fantasy backs, and this week there should be plenty to go around against a Cincinnati defense that can’t get middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict back soon enough.
On the other side, Bengals running back Giovanni Bernard gets a second shot at bell-cow status, with Joe Mixon still a couple weeks away from returning from a minor knee surgery. Bernard, a former second-round pick, is a Coleman-esque dual threat who the coaching staff trusts after five-plus seasons as a pro. Bernard put up 61 yards on the ground on 5.1 Y/A against Carolina last week with a TD and also saw nine targets (five catches) for 25 yards.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Arizona isn’t getting torched on a per-carry basis, but the Cardinals have spent so much time trailing that their defense has seen the league’s highest number of carries through three weeks. The resulting five touchdowns is the most in the league, and Seattle comes to town banged up at receiver and operating with an O-line struggling to protect Russell Wilson.
The question is whether Chris Carson sees another monster workload — 32 carries for 102 yards and a spike against Dallas last week — or if Rashaad Penny gets out of the doghouse after fumbling early in the second half against the Cowboys and hitting the bench.
Recall that in the Seahawks’ Week 2 loss to the Bears, Penny out-carried Carson 10-6. With plenty of touches likely to go around in Arizona, look for the first-round pick Penny to get back in on the action this week.
Bills vs. Packers
Green Bay has yet to rush for a TD on the season but hosts a Bills squad it very well could torch. Buffalo has given up four rushing touchdowns and two more through the air to running backs through three games.
But who will break through and actually help us? Jamaal Williams at the goal line? Aaron Jones with a big game? Ty Montgomery in the mix through the air? It’s basically last-call for Green Bay running backs — if we can’t get points out of someone here against Buffalo it’s probably time to move on.
Browns vs. Raiders
Anyone who owns Beast Mode should be dialing him up with confidence against a Browns defense that has given up multiple rushing TDs in two out of three games. This is again more of a volume-based problem for Cleveland, whose per-carry and rushing-yardage numbers are middle-of-the-pack.
The Browns’ pass rush could encourage the Raiders to keep the ball in Marshawn Lynch’s hands as much as possible. James Connor and Isaiah Crowell each splashed the end zone against the Browns twice.
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Will the Bears’ tough defense slow down the Mighty Fitzpatrick, with the Chicago offense grinding out the game on the ground? Or will Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen be needed through the air to keep pace with Fitzy & Co.? Either way, look for the Bears backs to be a focal point for Chicago and second-year man Mitch Trubisky.
So far this season, Tampa Bay has given up two rushing TDs each to New Orleans and Philadelphia, with Alvin Kamara adding another through the air.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
