Fantasy football managers think that running back is the most important position they draft each season. Therefore, there is always a great deal of interest in the top running backs in each NFL draft class. Last year, the Atlanta Falcons took Bijan Robinson No. 8 overall. Expectations were high, but managers who had Robinson on their fantasy team were probably disappointed. His 246.3 fantasy point was only ninth best.
Contrary to popular opinion, it’s rare to see an NFL running back make a huge impact in his rookie season. In spite of his superior pedigree and prowess at the University of Texas, Robinson’s rookie season did not live up to the hype. He averaged a respectable 4.6 yards per carry and totaled 1,463 yards from scrimmage. Those numbers weren’t bad, but not what fantasy managers had expected.
The first round of this year’s draft had fantasy relevancy in redraft leagues, but it none of it was at the running back position. The first running back wasn’t taken until the 14th pick in the second round. The Carolina Panthers selected Jonathan Brooks. Brooks, widely regarded as the best running back in the 2024 class, is also a product of the University of Texas. But he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered last November.
If you’re looking for a relevant rookie to draft next fall, you might find one in wideout Marvin Harrison, Jr. out of The Ohio State University. Harrison, taken fourth overall, becomes the WR1 in Arizona. Scouts find few weaknesses in his game. Imagine a bigger version of Devante Adams. Harrison will not only be the best wide receiver on his new team, he could easily finish in the top five in WR fantasy points scored in 2024.
I know what you’re thinking. “Doubting Thomas, wide receivers are a dime a dozen. I can draft CeeDee Lamb, or Tyreek Hill. Or, I could draft a sophomore like Puca Nacua, who’s already a proven commodity.” If you really don’t want to hear about the talented rookie wide receivers, I will give the people what they want. Let’s discuss all of the NFL running backs who changed addresses and uniforms during the offseason.
DERRICK HENRY, RB, BALTIMORE
Derrick Henry’s move to the Baltimore Ravens is one of the most interesting moves. The Baltimore Ravens signed Henry to a two-year, $16 million deal worth up to $20 million, including $9 million fully guaranteed in the first year. Henry, who joins the Ravens after eight years with the Titans, is likely to be an early-down workhorse and could open things up for the best running quarterback in the game – Lamar Jackson.
SAQUON BARKLEY, RB, PHILADELPHIA
Just 100 miles down the road, excitement is high in the City of Brotherly Love with the arrival of Saquon Barkley. The Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract. Barkley, an impact player since his rookie year in 2018, is a dynamic playmaker who could be a huge fantasy asset if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is willing to integrate a running back into the passing game more often than the Eagles have in the past.
JOSH JACOBS, RB, GREEN BAY
Josh Jacobs’ signing with the Packers brought an end to the Aaron Jones era in Green Bay. Jacobs, who flashed his upside in 2022 with 1653 rushing yards and 400 passing yards, became a fantasy manager favorite in 2023. Managers were disappointed last year with his performance, which was marred by injuries. However, he’ll be drafted early and often in 2024 as he joins a Packers team that is clearly on the rise.
AARON JONES, RB, MINNESOTA
Aaron Jones, the jilted lover from Green Bay, signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Vikings. The Packers soured on him because of a subpar season, marred by injuries, but he finished the regular season with four double-digit fantasy games. In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards. He should lead the Vikings backfield in 2024 as an RB2 with RB1 upside if he can stay healthy.
TONY POLLARD, RB, TENNESSEE
On the surface, you might think that Tennessee is a great landing spot for Tony Pollard. After all, the Titans are a run-first offense. But Pollard is no Derrick Henry. He’s not durable, and I have a hard time believing he’ll stay on the field. Pollard was a fantasy bust last year. He went from being one of the most explosive backs in the NFL to a rusher that left a ton of yards on the field. In spite of the high-volume workload he finished as RB23.
D’ANDRE SWIFT, RB, CHICAGO
D’Andre Swift comes to Chicago on a 3-year, $24 million contract, including a $4 million signing bonus, $15,300,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $8,000,000. It’s safe to say that expectations are high in the Windy City. The contract was a surprise since Swift finished as the RB24 in fantasy. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, Swift ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per run.
AUSTIN EKELER, RB, WASHINGTON
Austin Ekeler was looking for a long-term contract, but he wasn’t as fortunate as Swift. He wound up settling for a two-year $8.34 million deal with Washington. Ekeler, who finished as RB26 last year, is just one year removed from being RB1. After 26.4 fantasy points in the opening week of 2024, Ekeler suffered an ankle sprain. This resulted in him missing three games and probably muted production for the rest of the season.
JOE MIXON, RB, HOUSTON
If a rising tide lifts all boats, Joe Mixon is sailing into Houston at the right time. The Texans are emerging as an powerhouse, and quarterback C.J. Stroud was gifted with two new weapons – Mixon and Stefon Diggs – during the offseason. Mixon is coming off a good year in Cincinnati, and it was surprising to see the Bengals trade him. Last year’s RB6 had 1,410 total yards on 309 touches (52 catches). Expect another good year from Mixon.
ZACK MOSS, RB, CINCINNATI
The Bengals chose to trade Mixon and sign Zack Moss to a two-year, $8 million deal. Moss became fantasy relevant last season when he assumed the starting role in Indianapolis after Jonathan Taylor missed time with two different injuries. Moss is expected to handle the early down work in Cincinnati, although Chase Brown could eat into his work on passing downs. With that expectation in mind, put him in the RB2/RB3 range.
GUS EDWARDS, RB, LA CHARGERS
Gus Edwards signed a two-year deal with the Chargers that is essentially a one-year contract, with his contract money falling off after 2024. Before you get excited, it’s worth noting that Los Angeles added Kimani Vidal in the sixth round of the NFL draft. Vidal was a record-setting, three-down back at tiny Troy University, so I would not be surprised to see him actually jump ahead of Edwards on the depth chart before the season is over.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
