Expectations for rookie wide receivers was high entering the 2023 season because rookies have elevated fantasy teams in recent years. Consider what Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have done for their respective teams. Then fifth-round pick Puka Nacua exploded out of the gate, averaging 23.1 fantasy points in his first five games, and rookie mania was the rage.
Nacua has been inconsistent since his hot start, but other rookie wideouts have emerged. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell Jr. put up big numbers in his previous five games before a season-ending injury on Sunday. Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers also had breakout games in Week 12. Jayden Reed averaged 17.87 PPR fantasy points in the three games before taking a step back in Week 13. Reed is available in half of the leagues.
In my home league, I have leaned heavily on rookie wide receivers, with Nacua, Dell and Rice rostered. In Week 13, with Stefon Diggs on a bye, I had two WR spots to fill in my starting lineup and chose Dell and Rice. I left Nacua on my bench, and he went off for 23.9 FP. Rice led the Chiefs in targets for the second straight week, catching eight of nine. Dell had zero points after suffering a fractured left fibula early in the game.
In spite of the rookie mania, it’s actually quite rare for a player to be a top 24 wide receiver in his rookie season. Those that accomplish this feat have plenty of factors working in their favor that allowed them to be immediate fantasy football producers. Some of them, like Lamb, had excellent quarterback play and high-end team passing volume. Others, like Waddle and Wilson, fell into situations with very little target competition.
The point is that when it comes to fantasy success, especially for a rookie, it takes more than just that player’s individual talent. They need the right situation, the right environment and a few things to break their way. Consider the talented Olave, who has been hampered by inconsistent quarterback play in New Orleans. Or, Drake London, who was been held back by even worse quarterback performances in Atlanta.
The right situation emerged unexpectedly for Dell. It was difficult for the Texans to ignore him since he ascended to stardom at the University of Houston. With electrifying speed and an uncanny ability to separate in his routes, Houston used a third-round pick to pair him with another rookie, C.J. Stroud. This boded well for the future of this young team, but no one expected Stroud to break out like he has in 2023.
The rookie wide receiver that was expected to be lead the way heading into the season was the Vikings’ Jordan Addison. Of all the rookies, he had the clearest path to an immediate role in Minnesota. After all, he was sure to benefit from defenses having to focus on Jefferson, who led the league last year in receiving yards. With Kirk Cousins at the helm, Addison seemed like a lock. Then, both Jefferson and Cousins got injured.
It’s not like Addison has had a bad rookie season. Heading into his bye week, Addison was the third-best rookie wideout at WR15. He trailed only Nacua, WR 10 and Dell, WR14. Still, fantasy managers can only wonder what Addison might have done after Jefferson went down in Week 5 if Cousins hadn’t been lost for the season in Week 8. In those four weeks, Addison averaged 20.7 fantasy points before Cousins tore his Achilles tendon.
Another promising rookie wide receiver is Josh Downs. Indianapolis selected the North Carolina star with the No. 79 overall pick in the draft. After a slow start, Downs averaged 14.3 fantasy points in the next six games, but was slowed by injuries in the next two weeks. Coming off his bye, he had 13 targets from Gardner Minshew in Week 12, tying for the team lead. However, he caught only five for 47 yards and did not find the end zone.
In Week 13, Downs garnered only five targets but remains an important part of the Indianapolis passing attack. While Dell, Nacua, Rice, Flowers and Addison are widely rostered in fantasy leagues, Downs is available in almost half of fantasy leagues and could be a sneaky pickup for fantasy managers still in the playoff picture. Since Week 6, Downs has five games in which he has managed at least 65% of the snaps playing with Minshew.
A highly regarded rookie who has been inconsistent is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle took him in the first round, right ahead of Quinton Johnston, Flowers and Addison. The Ohio State star started with five straight single-digit games. He’s had four double-digit games since then and garnered a season-high 11 targets against Dallas Thursday night. Smith-Njigba is available in almost half of fantasy leagues and should be added if available.
While this rookie class has proved to be one of the best in recent years, there have been some disappointments. Johnston, drafted in the first round by the Chargers, has proven to be a bust so far. But the rookie wideout, who skipped his senior year at TCU to come out early, did manage to corral five of his seven targets Sunday at New England for 10.2 FP. In spite of a dropped touchdown pass, this was Johnston’s best game of the season.
Another highly-regard rookie who is showing signs of life is Jonathan Mingo of Carolina. in Week 13, Mingo had a season-high 10 targets against Tampa Bay. He didn’t get into the end zone but was the Panthers’ leading receiver, topping 60 yards for the third time in the last six games. He set new career highs in catches and targets. Mingo, taken early in the second round, will benefit if Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall draft pick, continues to improve.
Overall, the 2023 rookie class has been one of the best in recent years. If you’re in a dynasty league, you should already have a lot of these players rostered. If you’re in a redraft league, you can still get a late boost from players like Reed, Downs, Smith-Njigba, Mingo and even Johnston. As we look ahead to 2024, many of these rookies may take the next step. You can expect to see Dell, Nacua, Addison and Flowers all going in the early rounds.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
