With the playoff upon us, this is a good time to take a look at the best fantasy rookies this season, starting in the National League. Most of these players have been on the radar for dynasty managers for a couple years or more, but the shortened 2020 season was the first opportunity for people to see them play somewhat extended roles in the Major Leagues. There is no doubt these players have helped numerous managers this season, and all of them are viewed as more intriguing players than they were before the season. If history is any indication, there will be a lot of hype entering next season surrounding the players I will discuss here. They all have some track record of success in the Minor Leagues but also dealt with some kind of obstacle that kept them from being viewed as safe, elite options a few months ago.
As someone who’s been burned by more prospects than I care to admit, it is often wise to investigate each player coming off a small sample size, to figure out if they are what the numbers suggest. Often, I will conclude there is more value trading the player when their stock is high, as opposed to counting on the same level of consistent value for years to come. There are certain players in which it’s advisable to hold on tight, and it can be a risky game to play if you aren’t able to accurately identify who is legitimate and who is an ideal sell-high candidate. The best way I can describe it is a game of musical chairs. You just want to make sure you have the right prospects on your roster when the music stops.
Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B, Padres | Age : 26
Before the Season – Outside of optimistic Padre fans, Cronenworth was well off the radar for fantasy purposes. You would’ve been hard-pressed to find the versatile infielder on any top 100 prospect list, and for good reason. Although he did produce in Triple-A in 2019, he was 25-years old and was mostly labeled as a low-ceiling utility type that would have a difficult time breaking into the talented Padres organization.
This season – He emerged as an everyday player for the Padres as they secured a playoff spot. With a .285/.354/.477 slash, Cronenworth helped managers who took the gamble adding him as he began emerging. His multi-position flexibility has certainly been a positive addition, and the advanced metrics indicate this isn’t a fluke.
Long-term – It’s become pretty clear that Cronenworth is a good Major League player, and this season should help build a foundation for a successful career. Because he is already 26 years old, it is safe to assume there isn’t a ton of room for upside going forward. The next few years very well could end up being the prime of his career. He should be relatively productive going forward, assuming he can keep an every-day job on a loaded Padres team.
Advice – This may be controversial, but I would strongly consider marketing him this off-season to see what kind of interest lies in your league. If you can find the right match, more often than not, I would recommend trading a player like Cronenworth, who doesn’t necessarily fit the profile of an elite prospect or a dynasty cornerstone long-term. Occasionally a late-bloomer will come back to bite you, but you’ll come out ahead long-term, in my experience.
Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins | Age : 22
Before the Season – Widely considered a top 10 pitching prospect, the flame-thrower has been highly touted since his days in the Phillies organization. Essentially his height and concerns of a future arm problem (due to his velocity) kept Sanchez from being in the running for the top pitching prospect. It’s fair to say most fantasy managers were cautiously optimistic because of the pedigree.
This season – With a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in seven starts, the buzz is picking up for Sanchez to win the National League Rookie of the Year honors. The righty has been solid, surpassing even his most rabid supporters’ expectations to begin his career. Sixto has performed like an ace and a waiver wire hero for redraft managers chasing down their league championships.
Long-term – An elite pitching prospect, who regularly touches triple digits with his fastball, has two good secondary pitches, as well as plus command. His upside is a fantasy ace and top 10 pitcher during his prime. This is a really good one that dynasty managers would be wise to invest in. Simply put, he has great stuff and knows how to pitch.
Advice – While the window to trade for him relatively cheaply is closed, don’t be afraid to target him in trades next season. Particularly after the league has had an offseason to adjust to him, there should be a small window that opens back up when he struggles for a couple of starts. Bottom line, if you’re going to plant your flag on one player we discuss in this article, this is the player you want.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies | Age : 24
Before the Season – Viewed as one of the most MLB-ready prospects and generally fell between #25-50 on preseason prospect lists. Widely regarded as one of the top two or three third base prospects who would get an opportunity for the Phillies soon after they secured an extra year of team control.
This Season – Bohm has played well and was a popular waiver add down the stretch. For the small sample size, the righty has more than held his own, posting a .338/.400/.481 line in 180 PA.
Long-term – Although he has the frame, it’s no guarantee that plus power develops. Considering he’s already 24 years old, there probably isn’t a ton of upside remaining, though that doesn’t mean he won’t still improve. The most likely outcome is a corner-infielder that is lacking elite power but makes up all of it with his hit tool. Should settle in as a top 10-15 option at his position.
Advice – If you have a hole at third base, you could do much worse than Bohm over the next few years. I wouldn’t pay for him like he’s on the verge of becoming a premium slugger, but he should be a safe, steady, and solid option for dynasty managers. I believe he falls short of becoming a cornerstone player in most leagues, therefore trading him in the right deal is an option if your team is set up for it.
Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers | Age : 23
Before the Season – He was on the radar for managers as an MLB-ready pitcher that flashed upside in 2019. The concerns were based on his position in the bullpen, and whether or not he would start enough to make a big difference in fantasy leagues. With the Dodgers organizational depth, he made for an intriguing multi-inning reliever with upside for more, if things broke right.
This Season – After moving into the rotation immediately before the season, May was a consistently solid starter for the Dodgers. In 12 outings, he posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The biggest red flag from a fantasy perspective is that he only had 44 strikeouts in 56 innings, and some are questioning if his strikeout upside is lacking.
Long-term – While he will never end up leading the league in strikeouts, May is a quality pitcher capable of filling various roles for the Dodgers. His long-term fantasy value comes as a starting pitcher, and his ability to pitch makes him a safe bet to maintain his skills through the years. May should be a solid keeper capable of having seasons where he’s a top 30 SP.
Advice -There is a decent chance you can acquire May for a reasonable price this offseason. I would certainly recommend a rebuilding team that needs some pitching to consider May as a relatively safe and solid option. He probably won’t be highly touted enough for contending teams to consider keeping, so he will likely end up on the team who is willing to take the low-risk gamble.
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Rookie of the Year – NL Edition
