After taking a closer look at four National League prospects who stood out for their play this season, today I will be discussing four American League prospects. While there were not as many huge breakout performances from AL rookies, it did produce one of the more intriguing Rookie of the Year races in recent memory. For the last six weeks, you couldn’t be involved with the baseball community without seeing someone talking about Luis Robert versus Kyle Lewis. The race was intriguing as we entered September, but fizzled out down the stretch, mostly due to Robert going ice-cold.
Plenty of other prospects emerged onto the scene this season, and have now been placed firmly on the radar for a lot of fantasy managers. Countless players throughout history that have excelled in the first taste of Major League action, only to be exposed once teams and pitchers develop a book on them. We all must dig deeper into these players to figure out what we have. Check out their Minor League track record. Get an understanding of what type of player they can become. It’s exciting when players outperform expectations, but it can also be a trap if you don’t take the time to investigate.
Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners | Age : 25
Before the Season – During his brief September call-up in 2019 he hit six homers in his first 10 big league games, but also struck out nearly 40% of the time. His injury history since being drafted was considered a red flag and the general feeling was that he would show power when making contact, but his swing and miss issues would relegate the slugger to hitting for a low average. He was a very late-round pick in a majority of leagues.
This season – It didn’t take long for Lewis to begin making noise, which is easier said than done for a relatively unknown player in the Pacific Northwest. Though he ended up September in a bit of a slide, Lewis was able to finish his rookie season slashing .262/.364/.437 with 11 home runs, which tied for the league lead amongst rookies. He topped it off by leading all rookies in total bases with 90.
Long-term – The front runner for the AL Rookie of the Year is already 25 years old, so he should be stepping into his prime seasons shortly. Although he flashed some excellent power, we’re still looking at a player with a 31.5 K% in his career thus far. He profiles as a player who should be able to hit 30 home runs in his prime, but it will likely come with a low batting average and a huge number of strikeouts.
Advice – Considering his advanced age for a prospect, combined with the fact that his stock is at an all-time high, my recommendation would be marketing Lewis in the offseason to see if you can trade him for a player that profiles as a more complete hitter. It takes a certain skill set to be a standout fantasy option in the outfield, and Lewis falls short of that barring a sudden change in approach.
Luis Robert, OF, White Sox | Age : 22
Before the Season – Considered by many experts to be among the very best rookies for fantasy, Robert was being selected in the early-to-mid rounds of standard league drafts this season and was being taken even higher in expert leagues. His power/speed combination was considered very intriguing and the consensus was that he was a top 5 fantasy prospect for dynasty leagues and a front runner for Rookie of the Year.
This season – The well-rounded Robert came out on fire from the beginning of the season. At the half-way point, he was widely considered the runaway favorite to take home the hardware. While he did slump hard to end the season, Robert still managed to lead all rookies in RBIs (31) and stolen bases (9), while tying for the league lead in homers with Kyle Lewis (11).
Long-term – There is a lot to like about the Cuban sensation and he is still considered amongst the very best options at his position in dynasty leagues. His plate discipline still needs some work and he’s shown a tendency to be very streaky. That being said, the five-category upside is real and he can be a major help in multiple categories, even if he never reaches his ceiling.
Advice – Anytime you have such a highly decorated prospect break out, you have to be open to listening to offers. But unless you can land a young stud who profiles as even better than Robert, you can’t realistically expect to upgrade him. If you’re lacking stolen bases and need an outfielder long-term, this is your man. Despite likely falling short of the Rookie of the Year, Robert is the player I’ve discussed here that you most want, and it’s not particularly close, in my humble opinion.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Orioles | Age : 23
Before the Season – Generally considered an underwhelming prospect, despite being on the radar for a few years now. His hit tool was considered plus, but his lack of speed and 4.3 BB% at Triple-A indicated he wasn’t a very exciting prospect. Most thought he would debut this season and get regular at-bats eventually because of the lack of talent currently on the Orioles.
This Season – After receiving the call-up, Mountcastle was impressive with the bat, slashing .333/.386/.492 in 36 games while splitting time between first base and the outfield. While his defense remains a work in progress, he showed he’s capable enough to justify keeping his bat in the lineup. He generally outperformed expectations in what has been a wildly successful rookie campaign.
Long-term – The same concerns that have plagued Mountcastle through his rise up the organization still exist today. His lack of plate discipline will be his undoing in OBP leagues, but he does project to be a standout in AVG leagues. We’re talking about a first base prospect with a little bit of pop, a low OBP, no speed, who’s counting stats will be suppressed playing in a bad lineup.
Advice – Simply put, I would recommend trading him this offseason. When trying to fill the first base position long-term, we should be targeting hitters with big power and plate discipline, ideally. Barring some unforeseen change in his approach, Mountcastle doesn’t profile as a player that can be counted on for consistent high-level production at a position it’s required.
Triston McKenzie, SP, Indians | Age : 23
Before the Season – The slim righty was mostly off the fantasy radar after missing all of 2019. Even preseason prospect lists didn’t look at him favorably. Not that his stuff didn’t warrant consideration, it was mostly a case of out of sight, out of mind.
This Season – A mixed league asset who has given up a of couple home runs, but has done a good job limiting base runners, while flashing front-end starter upside. The righty was moved to the bullpen in the last couple of weeks to prepare for a postseason role there. McKenzie finished the season with a 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, with 42 K in 33.1 IP.
Long-term – Multiple plus pitches combined with good command and an organization that has developed numerous high-level pitchers in recent years. While his slight frame still needs some added muscle, the ingredients are present for McKenzie to be a solid dynasty asset. If the Indians sprinkle in the magic they used on Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber, a world exists where he’s a top 20 pitcher in his prime.
Advice – His innings still need to be built up, so I wouldn’t expect a full-season breakout until 2022 at the earliest. That being said, McKenzie is a borderline top 20 pitching prospect, who looks like he belongs immediately, and has upside for more. There’s a decent chance a buy-low window opens at some point next season, so try to get McKenzie on your roster before the 2022 season begins and you’re in good shape.
Other Rookies Who Played Well
Cristian Javier, SP, Astros
Jared Walsh, 1B, Angels
Willi Castro, SS, Tigers
James Karinchak, RP, Indians
Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B, Red Sox
Sean Murphy, C, Athletics
Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays
Matt Foster, RP, White Sox
Kyle Zimmer, RP, Royals
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Rookie of the Year – AL Edition
