Remember early in the pandemic when people began to realize things might get really, really bad? Everyone mobbed the grocery stores to stock up on essentials like toilet paper, bread, and liquor before the shelves were empty and everything shut down. That’s basically what this offseason has been in baseball. With a lockout looming, teams rushed to sign top free agents before the roster freeze come midnight on December 1st. The result was perhaps the most exciting week of an MLB offseason in recent memory. Now, the lockout is official and there doesn’t seem to be any consensus on when it will end. Rather than dwelling on how terrible this is for baseball, let’s remember the good times we had a week ago. Some of the biggest names in baseball will play for new teams next season (whenever that may be) and there are some major fantasy implications.
The top pitchers in this year’s free agent class have all signed already. AL Cy Young winner Robby Ray is going to Seattle, Kevin Gausman to Toronto, Max Scherzer to the Mets, and Marcus Stroman to the Cubs. Ray and Gausman strike me as two players that will likely be drafted too high this year. While both are excellent pitchers, it’s hard not to see some regression coming. Moving to the AL East could hurt Gausman’s stock. The home run ball was the biggest issue earlier in his career and became problematic again in the second half of 2021. I would certainly worry about this continuing, playing in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. On the other hand, Robbie Ray proved that you could find success as a pitcher in Toronto, thanks to a league-leading 248 strikeouts in his breakout season. Ray has always had elite strikeout stuff but had problems allowing walks. His BB% dropped drastically in 2021, from 17.9% to 6.7%, while maintaining 11.5 SO/9. These are the type of numbers that lead to Cy Young-winning seasons. The question is whether it can be replicated, and Ray’s career history would make me wary of drafting him as a repeat fantasy ace.
Even in his age 37 season, there’s little reason to expect any sort of decline from Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner has been an ace for nearly a decade and should still be drafted with confidence in the 1st/2nd round. Marcus Stroman is a more interesting case. I thought the Cubs were a curious fit, going into their first full season of an expected rebuild. He’s also unlike the other pitchers on this list (and in baseball in general), as his success comes from a high ground-ball rate, rather than strikeouts. A varied repertoire and strong command have allowed Stroman to be consistently successful throughout his career. The Cubs defense could be a concern, which would hurt a pitcher like Stroman, though a ground ball-generating pitcher makes sense in Wrigley Field. The Cubs envision him as a pitcher to build their rotation around. A low strikeout rate will limit Stroman’s upside, but the ability to go deep into games while limiting runs gives him a solid floor. At the right price, he can be a strong fantasy asset.
While some of the better hitters in this year’s class (Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Freddie Freeman) remain unsigned, but there have been some other interesting moves made already that are worth noting. The Texas Rangers made the biggest splash in this market, bringing in both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager’s injury history may scare some people off, but he’s still one of the better shortstops in the game when on the field entering his age-28 season. Even with Semien, the Ranger’s lineup won’t offer the same type of protection that Seager was afforded with the Dodgers, but his well-rounded offensive approach makes him the type of player worth taking a chance on. Semien, meanwhile, has been one of the most difficult players to project over the past few seasons. He broke out in 2019 with 33 home runs and an .892 OPS, fell back to earth in a shortened 2020 season before signing a one-year deal with Toronto where he exploded again, hitting 45 home runs with a .873 OPS. Like Seager, the Ranger’s lineup will be a downgrade for Semien, and I believe this will be more detrimental for his value. Additionally, Globe Life Field skews towards a pitcher’s park, which should hurt Semien’s power numbers. Ultimately, I’m not interested in Semien at where he’s likely to be drafted this year. No matter where he signed, his 2021 season was going to be hard to repeat, and I don’t think the conditions in Texas do him any favors. The Rangers have definitely gotten better as a team, but there are still too many holes in this lineup for them to take a significant step forward.
Javy Baez is another free agent who helped his value with a strong second-half, after being traded to the Mets at the deadline. Most notable was his walk rate, jumping from 4.2% to 7%. If Baez were to maintain this progression, he’s an elite fantasy shortstop thanks to 30+ home run power and some moderate stolen base upside. The problem is there is very little reason to believe he will maintain a walk rate that’s even close to league average, especially after signing with Detroit. Baez has long been defined by his ultra-aggressive approach. This, paired with elite fielding and base-running, make for an incredibly exciting player. However, in OBP leagues or those that penalize strikeouts, it’s tough to imagine that Baez will produce enough to make up for some of his flaws. The Tigers are still early in a rebuild, and Baez won’t have much protection in this lineup. I can’t imagine he gets many pitches to hit, so a more patient approach would certainly be to his benefit, and the benefit of the Tigers’ offense. Look for players like Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo , and eventually Spencer Torkelson to benefit from Baez’s presence in the lineup, but this team is still a few years away from competing.
Replacing Baez atop the Mets lineup will be outfielder Starling Marte. Marte always seems to be fantasy relevant, as one of the few players who can still steal 30+ bases. I’m somewhat hesitant about buying into a player reliant on speed going into his age-33 season. However, Marte hasn’t shown any signs yet of slowing down, and if he can come close to replicating his .824 OPS he’ll be productive in what should be a decent Mets lineup. Another outfielder moving to the NL East is Avisail Garcia, who signed with the Marlins. It feels like we’ve been waiting forever for Garcia to breakout, and he quietly had a great 2021 season with a career-best 29 home runs and a .820 OPS. Though not as flashy as some of the other free agents, Garcia makes the Marlins a better team offensively, and should still be a low-cost/high-upside fantasy option.
As we await the conclusion of the lockout, it’s worth taking the time to identify which players could benefit or potentially suffer from a change in scenery, while contenting to speculate on where the remaining names could wind up. Either way, there should be significant intrigue going into Spring Training – so, fingers crossed that it starts come spring.
