Last week, I gave you seven principles for building a winning team in your fantasy baseball draft. This week, we’re going to dig deeper into Principle 1 – respecting ADP. If you’ve read my column for any length of time, you know I’m a former financial advisor and believer in the Efficient Market theory. This theory holds that market prices of stocks reflect all available, relevant information and are already baked into the price. I believe the Efficient Market Theory can be applied to the “pricing” of players in an Average Draft Position (ADP) list.
The gold standard for an ADP list is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) list. The NFBC leagues are where the best fantasy managers in the world play. Many of these managers are high-stakes players who spend hundreds of hours evaluating major league (and minor league) baseball players. Their drafts start in November and continue through March. Meanwhile, NFBC keeps track of all these drafts and updates their ADP. In my opinion, it’s just like pricing stocks because all of the relevant information is reflected in the ADP.
How do you utilize this information to your benefit in the draft? Look for players who are available at a price below their ADP in your league. The bigger the spread, the better. While the spread is unlikely to be much in the early rounds, it will start to grow as the draft progresses. Please understand that to maximize the benefit of this approach, you should have the ADP memorized. Unless you have a fantastic memory, you probably won’t have be able to recite the correct ADP for the top 500 players. But you should be able to memorize the top 100.
Of course, looking for ADP value in your league should be only part of your draft plan. You’ve also got to decide your draft priorities at the various positions. For instance, I have a good idea about how the early rounds are going to go. I’m plan to take hitters in the first three rounds, relief pitchers in rounds four and six and a whole lot of starting pitchers between 7 and 15. It’s also likely that I will take a first baseman in the first three rounds (Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, or Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.) because they’re the cream of the crop.
Another position that will get my attention in the early rounds is outfielder. My plan is to take two outfielders in the first three rounds, but this will depend on my draft position and who’s available. This gets back to getting players who have been passed over at their ADP. If managers in my league push up starting pitchers, I am sure to find some values. For instance, if Rafael Devers slips to the third round, I would jump on him there. I actually like Devers at his current ADP of 24, but I would love him at the end of the second of beginning of the third round.
Again, I repeat that players available at a discount is only part of my screening process. There are some players that I really don’t like at their current ADP, and I probably won’t like them at a discounted price. One example is Elly De La Cruz, with an ADP of 21 at this time. Frankly, if De La Cruz slipped to the third round, I still might pass on him. While the stolen base upside is alluring, the rookie hit only .235 across 98 games and only .191 in the final 38 games of the season. That’s way too much batting average risk for me at his price. I’m out on Elly.
There are players that I would reach for because I really like them at the price. However, I will not being reaching as much as some managers because I respect the ADP numbers. An example of a player I would reach for early in the fifth round is Manny Machado. I’m surprised to see his ADP at 74. Keep in mind that Machado is one year removed from a season where he hit .298, with 100 runs scored, 102 RBI and 32 home runs. Last year’s .258/.319.462 slash line was close to the worst in his career. The team context is not going to be good, but he’s a steal at this price.
Keep in mind, that ADP won’t be as dependable later in the draft as it is in the early rounds. For example, consider Drew Waters at ADP 387. After a good showing in his first cup of coffee in 2022, Waters was an early sleeper last year before he was sidelined with an oblique injury in February. When he did make it back he had eight home runs and 16 stolen bases in only 98 games. If Waters has a good spring, he’ll see a lot of playing time in the Kansas City outfield and could deliver real value. The 387 ADP is fair based on what we know – but that’s not much.
Trusting ADP and not reaching for players is a good guiding principle, but it’s not a draft panacea. You should still do your homework, and look at what you need at each position. Let me give you another example. I already told you how much I like Machado in the fifth round. But if I still didn’t have a first baseman, I would probably take Paul Goldschmidt instead. The reason is that I don’t like the players at that position being drafted after Goldschmidt. At least, not enough to be trusted as my starting first baseman. In a situation like this, I’d have to make a choice.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
