Running backs are among the most entertaining and frustrating players to own in all of fantasy football. In general, RBs have an extremely high injury rate and the volatility makes it difficult to know what you’re truly paying for on draft day.
The excitement of having a top rusher is matched only by the frustration of having your RB go out with an injury in a must-win situation. The fact that running backs score more fantasy points than any non-QB position makes them an integral part of a successful fantasy season. One of the best ways to fill your empty roster spots is to draft rookie running backs. Let’s take a look at some of this year’s rookie backs and what types of outcomes you can expect from them.
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – RB6
- Current ADP: Round 1
- Best Case: Top End RB1
- Worst Case: Back End RB2
Not much is needed to be said about Barkley. The Giants drafted him at no.2 overall for a reason. 75 receptions is 
not an impossible result from a player as talented as Barkley, making him a prime target in any PPR format. The only real knock on him is that Jonathan Stewart is still on the roster so goal line and short yardage work may not immediately be given to Barkley.
Derrius Guice – Washington Redskins – RB25
- Current ADP: Round 5
- Best Case: Back end RB1
- Worst Case: RB4
Touted by most experts as the second best RB in the draft. Surprisingly fell but landed in a good spot. He is not guaranteed to get a massive amount of touches from the start but the inefficiencies of Samaje Perine and the durability concerns of Chris Thompson guarantee him an opportunity. ADP will change so to take him at RB25 presents a decent amount of risk but if he falls in drafts this pick could really pay off.
Sony Michel – New England Patriots – RB32
- Current ADP: Round 7
- Best Case: Back End RB2
- Worst Case: Top End RB4
Patriots running backs are impossible to predict. The touches simply won’t be there for Michel. Thankfully he is a solid pass catcher which gives him a decent floor in the Tom Brady led offense. Considering James White, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are able to catch passes, it is unlikely he will be featured in that role. It remains to be seen if Mike Gilislee or Jeremy Hill will make the team.
Rashaad Penny – Seattle Seahawks – RB36
- Current ADP: Round 8
- Best Case: Top End RB2
- Worst Case: Backend RB4
This is my favorite rookie pick so far based on these early ADP projections. There is plenty of time left in the offseason for things to change and depending on how well these backs look in preseason we could face major shakeups between now and the start of the season. As it stands today Penny is valued on the RB3/RB4 turn. That presents little risk in drafting him with loads of upside. The poor offensive line and success of Chris Carson limit his potential but regardless he is one of the best values as it stands today.
Ronald Jones II – Tampa Bay Bucaneers – RB40
- Current ADP: Round 9
- Best Case: Backend RB2
- Worst Case Scenario: Waiver Wire
Jones enters a backfield with absolutely no name value. Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers have each had success in limited work but no single back has truly been successful since Doug Martin. Barber stands at 225 while the other two RBs hover around 200. This would indicate Barber would get the first crack at the early down/ goal line work. That isn’t a death sentence for Jones’ value because Tampa Bay has had a history of success with high volume passes to the backfield.
Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns – RB44
- Current ADP: Round 9
- Best Case: RB3
- Worst Case: Waiver Wire
This pick was a bit of a headscratcher. Chubb was a great value based on his talent but his fit in this offense is a big question mark. If anything this is great news for 2017 breakout Duke Johnson. Chubb should not be heavily involved in the receiving game and will likely spell carries from Carlos Hyde, This isn’t to say he has no value because Hyde’s injury history warrants a roster spot for the “next man up”. If this offense isn’t as improved as it looks on paper he could be this year’s Isaiah Crowell at best.
Royce Freeman – Denver Broncos – RB47
- Current ADP: Round 11
- Best Case: Top end RB2
- Worst Case: Top end RB4
I absolutely love this pick and will have every share of Freeman I can get if he falls to the 11th round. Nothing Davontae Booker has done throughout his career has made me believe that he should be a starter level back. Freeman has a ton of experience as both a rusher and a receiver giving him the ability to fit in the offense in any place they need him. We don’t expect a ton from the Broncos in 2018 but if he receives 12+ touches a game he would warrant a start on most rosters.
Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions – RB49
- Current ADP: Round 11
- Best Case: Top End RB3
- Worst Case: Waiver Wire
This is a wait and see situation. We have to find out exactly how many RBs are on the roster to start the season. Currently there is LeGarrette Blount, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, Zach Zenner, Dwayne Washington and Kerryon Johnson. That is a lot of mouths to feed on a team that hasn’t had a fantasy relevant RB in years. Things can certainly change and The Lions did invest a high pick in Johnson but as it stands there are better values to be had at this point in the draft.
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