In last week’s column, I unveiled my strategy for drafting tight ends – go great, or go late. Quarterbacks is the same song, different verse. There are three greats to choose from in the quarterback pool. However, you will probably need to draft one of them in the second, or third round. If you don’t want to do that, there are some good options later on and plenty of bad ones.
One of the first things for you to decide about when drafting a quarterback in fantasy is just how much of an anomaly you believe 2022 was. Last year, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all averaged more than 28 points per game. Joe Burrow averaged about three fewer points. Six more QBs averaged close to 22 PPG. Then there were nine QBs between 19.49 and 21.61.
Assuming this is the new landscape, a decision to draft one of the “Big Three” makes sense. If you’ve been reading me for awhile, you know that I have long been an advocate for waiting on drafting a quarterback. Unlike tight ends, the quarterback position is usually deep. However, that came back to bite me last year, and I am always in a learning mode when it comes to fantasy.
When you learn the fundamentals of something like fantasy football, you are going to form habits based on underlying assuptions. However, sometimes assumptions need to change based on new information. The Oxford dictionary defines a paradigm shift as a fundamental change in approach or underlying assumptions. This is what is happening in the quarterback landscape.
However, you must also consider other options before you select a quarterback in the second or third round. If there is a run on running backs and Devante Adams slips to the end of the second round, I would take him ahead of the Big Three quarterbacks. In a recent mock draft, I took Jonathan Taylor with the 26th overall pick. That was before he was put on the PUP list Tuesday.
Taylor, who wanted the Colts to renegotiate his rookie contract, was given permission to seek a trade. When he wasn’t traded before the Colts’ team-imposed Tuesday deadline, the team placed Taylor on the regular-season PUP list. That means he won’t be eligible to play the first four weeks of the season, even if a trade materializes. But I disgress. The subject is quarterbacks.
My quarterback strategy this year is similar to my tight end strategy in that I will avoid the quarterbacks in the middle rounds. I don’t want Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson in the third or fourth round. I don’t want Justin Herbert or Justin Fields in the fourth, or Trevor Lawrence in the fifth. I’m also taking a hard pass on Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott in the seventh or eighth.
If I am waiting on a quarterback, I’m looking for one in the 10th round (12-team league). I must admit that I have toyed with the idea of taking Tua Tagovailoa as he has slipped into this range. Tagovailoa was QB15 last year, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. His favorite targets, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, were WR2 and WR8 respectively based on fantasy PPR scoring.
Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5) and touchdown percentage (6.3%) last year. But he is a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious in Week 4 and didn’t return until Week 7. He was also back in concussion protocol after a Week 16 game head injury and missed Miami’s final two games.
Were it not for concussion concerns, Tagovailoa would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback. That’s his upside. Since Tagovailoa’s ADP has fallen, I can afford to draft him in the 10th round and draft another quarterback in the 11th. Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff are all going in this range. Anthony Richardson’s ADP is rising, but he might still be available in the 11th in your league.
Did you smell what I’m stepping in? The idea of drafting two quarterbacks late in your draft gives you a chance to buy two lottery tickets at this position without burning an early-round pick. For me, the ideal pairing would be Tagovailoa and Richardson, but I’m not confident that I can get both this late. Still there are others. Let’s take a close look at seven late-round quarterbacks that I like.
TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI
Setting aside his injury-shortened game at Cincinnati, Tagovailoa put up top-five numbers in 2022, averaging 287 passing yards in 12 games, with 25 touchdowns. He averaged almost a yard more per pass attempt than any other quarterback. With Hill and Waddle getting open in secondaries and Mike McDaniel drawing up players, there will be some big numbers if he stays on the field.
ANTHONY RICHARDSON, INDIANAPOLIS
The secret of how good Richardson runs hasn’t been a secret since preseason games started. Watching him, I am reminded of Justin Fields, who sat on the waiver wire in many leagues last year until he started racking up the rushing yards on his way to QB6. Richardson’s passing arm also reminds me of Fields, but I’ll take a flyer on him if I can get still get him in the 10th or 11th.
AARON RODGERS, NY JETS
I hate to throw shade on one of the greatest quarterbacks of all times, but Rodgers ain’t what he used to be. This showed up in the boxscore last year, as he threw only 26 TD passes. His 12 interceptions were the most he’d thrown in a season since 2008. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring, but he was QB21 in points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Fade.
KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA
Cousins has been painted as an overpriced quarterback that the Vikings should move on from if they are serious about making the playoffs. That may be true in real life, but in fantasy he’s money. Cousins has finished as a top-11 quarterback in each of the last three years. He finished as QB7 in 2022, ranking fourth in passing yards (4,547) and tying for fifth in TD passes (29).
DANIEL JONES, NY GIANTS
Largely undrafted in fantasy last year, Jones finished as QB9 in fantasy. Most of his value came from his legs, as he ran for 708 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. Jones averaged only 200 passing yards per game and threw 15 TD passes in 15 starts. While his ADP is still listed outside the top 100, I’m seeing him drafted as early as the 7th round in some mock drafts. That’s absurd.
GENO SMITH, SEATTLE
On the subject of coming out of nowhere, Smith was another big surprise in 2022. Drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft, he was awful in his first two seasons. After warming the bench for six years, Smith got another chance when Russell Wilson fled Seattle. Smith finished as QB5, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. I’m eager to draft him in the late rounds.
JARED GOFF, DETROIT
After disappointing seasons with the Rams in 2019 and 2020, then a lackluster first season with the Lions in 2021, Jared Goff surprised us all in 2022, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns. Only five quarterbacks passed for more yards last year, and only four threw more touchdowns. Goff was QB10 finish in fantasy, but his price is cheap because he doesn’t run.
They say that seven is the number of perfection, so I’ll stop there. Actually, I’ll stop there because I don’t want any other quarterbacks on my team. You can draft Wilson, Derek Carr Kenny Pickett, Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, or Matthew Stafford is you want to be disappointed. You can even draft Kyler Murray and stick him in your IR spot. But that would be a waste.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
