So, with the Eagles upset of the Patriots Sunday, the NFL season is over. With it, the NFFC Playoff Challenge has ended as well. The Challenge had 1419 entries. I finished 221st. Part of me was sort of ok with that, “heck I was in the top 15% and beat almost 1200 of the 1419 participants.” Then it hit me, I won as much money as the player in 1419th place. Zero. Only the top 25 places cash, with first place garnering the $80,000.00 grand prize. 25th place received $250.00, a $100.00 profit. 221st place, like 26th place and 1419th place, got nothing.
Briefly, the rules required each participant to draft one player from each of the 12 teams. Each team could take two quarterbacks, four running backs, four wide receivers/tight ends, one kicker and one defense. Each week a player was on the roster would result in a multiplier. Hence, if a team took Rob Gronkowski, he was worth double points in the Divisional round, triple points in the AFC Championship, and four times points in the Super Bowl.
In my first Creativesports2 column, I wrote about the import of predicting the two Super Bowl participating teams, and choosing quarterbacks from those teams. I went with Tom Brady and Case Keenum, figuring that the Patriots would once again win the Super Bowl, and that the Vikings would beat the Rams in the NFC championship game. (Yes, there’s a good reason I finished out of the money, my predictions didn’t exactly work out.)
But, was my underlying thought process of taking the predicted Super Bowl quarterbacks, no matter the fantasy talent on the rest of the team, as lone players in the first round for those teams flawed?
New England has a myriad of first-rate fantasy players, including Brady, Gronkowski, and even Brandin Cooks. So, by taking Brady in week #1, a team would have to pass on Gronk and take a lesser receiver. Yet, as I surmised, the quarterback position would be key.
The winning team, Team Trezza had Brady (4x in the Super Bowl), and Nick Foles (also 4x in the Super Bowl). The second place team, Team Daniels, also had Brady and Foles starting in week #1. The third place team? You got it, Brady and Foles. Fourth and Fifth place? Yes, Brady and Foles.
The highest scoring team that didn’t start with Brady and Foles was a team tied for 5th, Team Wheeler. Team Wheeler started with Brady but didn’t take Foles until the League Championship series. Five teams that cashed between seventh and 25th place also passed on Foles in the first week. Two of those five picked up Foles in week #2, while the other three waited until week #3. All told, 19 of the cashing 25 teams had Foles.
What about Brady? Certainly, a number of teams in the top 25 must have gone with Gronk, Cooks, or perhaps a flyer on James White or Dion Lewis, right? Well, yes. One team, the 25th place team picked up Brady in week number two, opting to go with Gronkowski for all four weeks. That team cashed for $250.00, a $100.00 profit. That team drafted Drew Brees and Alex Smith as quarterbacks. Yes, hindsight is 20:20, but had the owner taken Brady and the Chief’s wide receiver Tyreek Hill, instead of Smith and Gronk, and then picked up Gronk in week #2 to replace Hill, that team would have received 35.2 more points that it did with the Smith/Gronk start. Those 35.2 points would have vaulted this 25th place team to 12th place overall: a difference of $850.00.
The bottom line has been clear even before the NFFC Playoff Challenge started. To cash in, you must have at least one of the two Super Bowl quarterbacks on your roster from the start. If you only have one, you better be incredibly good and/or lucky with the rest of your picks. If you have neither, you should start studying baseball once each of your quarterbacks are eliminated.
The old saying, “you can’t win your league at the draft, but you certainly can lose it,” applies to the NFFC Playoff Challenge as well.
Don’t panic yet, but you only have 335 days to set your lineup for the 2018-19 NFFC Playoff Challenge.
Best of luck, Buster
