The goal of fantasy baseball is simply to accumulate as many points as possible, or at least more than your opponent during a weekly matchup. Please keep in mind my focus is on points-league scoring as opposed to rotisserie.
Points are awarded based on the standard batting and pitching stats, so clearly you want to roster the players who produce the most and who score more points. In today’s article we’ll look at two advanced stats that can predict which hitters have yet to reach their peak value and help you get a leg up on the competition.
Our focus will be hard hit rate (Hard%) and line drive percentage (LD%), statistics that demonstrate which batters are making solid contact most often. Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) has a specific algorithm for tracking whether a ball is hit hard, medium or soft and whether it is a ground ball, line drive or fly ball that utilizes hang time, general location and trajectory. The exact calculation is murky, but their classification is accurate enough for our purposes. Below, batters who excel at Hard% and LD% and who are being under drafted based on their projected point total will be highlighted. Ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) and home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) were referenced to ensure these hitters are making their fly balls count and every hitter profiled is above average in at least three of the four stats. The player pool is all 360 players who had at least 200 plate appearances in 2019.
Hard%
It goes without saying that the harder a ball is struck, the more likely it is to fall in for a base hit. The batters profiled were among the best in 2019 at squaring up the baseball while also performing well in LD%, GB/FB and HR/FB.
Marcell Ozuna OF, Atl
Ozuna is a popular bounce back candidate this season after having a down year, which appears to be the result of some bad luck based on the advanced statistics and was recently aided by the advent of the NL DH. He boasted a top 20 Hard% to go with above average rates in the other three metrics. ESPN projects Ozuna as hitter 28 in standard points leagues while his ADP of 65 indicates he is being left on the board too long and is worthy of a Round 5 or 6 valuation.
Max Muncy 1B/2B/3B, LAD
After his 2018 breakout, Muncy proved last season he is here to stay as an impact bat yet is still being passed over in drafts. Projected as hitter 41 behind the strength of a top 30 Hard%, Muncy’s ADP of 89 is far too low, especially considering his ability to play three infield positions.
Matt Olson 1B, Oak
If Olson hadn’t missed nearly all of April, the secret that he’s one of the top power threats in the game would probably be out. Fortunately, he’s still available as a Round 8 target who can turn in Round 6 or 7 value, backed by a top 20 Hard% and GB/FB ratio.
Christian Walker 1B, Ari
Walker is an under the radar name who ESPN projects as hitter 131 yet his ADP of 227 indicates GMs haven’t realized his talents. Walker’s Hard% is in the 90th percentile while remaining average in LD%, GB/FB and HR/FB, proving he is worth a selection at the back end of drafts.
Hunter Dozier 3B/OF, KC
After breaking out last season, drafters are hesitant to trust Dozier as his ADP of 204 falls short of his ESPN projection as hitter 134. Dozier combines a top 50 Hard% and GB/FB while remaining average in LD% and HR/FB ratio, all of which supports continued production.
Mike Yastrzemski OF, SF
While not particularly excelling in any of the four metrics, Yastrzemski finished in at least the 65th percentile for all of them, demonstrating his ability to contribute across the board. His projection as hitter 160 makes Yaz borderline rosterable but he’s well worth a late flyer based on his ADP of 244 and solid rates.
LD%
Line drives are more likely to result in hits than ground balls or fly balls, which makes batters who connect with them at a higher rate noteworthy. Line drives produce 1.26 runs per out while fly balls and ground balls produce .13 and .05, which should be all you need to know about batters who drive the ball frequently.
Whit Merrifield 2B/OF, KC
Merrifield is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, evidenced by his top 10 LD%, yet remains undervalued due to his lack of power. He easily makes up for that by playing every day, chipping in stolen bases and sporting multi-position eligibility. Projected as hitter 46, Merrifield deserves to go two rounds sooner than his current ADP of 91.
Justin Turner 3B, LAD
Turner pairs a top 30 LD% and top 10 Hard% with solid ratios to prove why he’s a professional hitter. There is a wide gap between his ADP of 120 and projected finish as hitter 55 and Turner is worthy of a selection Round 9 or 10.
Ramon Laureano OF, OAK
Laureano is similar to Yastrzemski in that he isn’t one of the top hitters in any one of the four statistics but is above average in all of them, ranking in at least the 56th percentile. If he can continue his success from an injury-shortened second half of 2019 he is worth more than his current ADP of 131 and could exceed his projection as hitter 87.
Corey Dickerson OF, Mia
Despite playing on his fourth team in four years, Dickerson has always produced quality numbers but can be acquired at a discount on draft day due to his reputation as a journeyman. A top 50 LD% along with above average rates in the other three metrics demonstrates Dickerson’s worth, and a projected finish as hitter 99 coupled with a 199 ADP proves that Dickerson is more of a Round 15 player than Round 20.
Kyle Seager 3B, Sea
Seager’s dip in batting average the last two seasons has depressed his value, however the advanced numbers indicate he can still help your team. Ranking above the 70th percentile in LD% and GB/FB ratio while remaining above average in the other two stats justifies ESPN’s projection as hitter 101, and an ADP of 184 means you can snag Seager in Round 16 or 17.
Brandon Lowe 2B, TBR
Lowe is an interesting case as he’s in at least the 78th percentile for all four statistics but sports one of the highest strike out rates in all of baseball. The upside is clear, evidenced by his 2019 All-Star nod as a rookie, but unless Lowe can limit the strike outs it may be difficult for him to remain roster worthy. At an ADP of 250 he is easily worth a late round flyer.
