The spring of 2018 was an exciting time in baseball. On April 25th, Ronald Acuna, Jr. was called up by Atlanta and made an immediate impact. Four weeks later, Juan Soto was called up by Washington and also made headlines. I was fortunate enough to grab Acuna off the waiver wire before everyone found out just how good he was. I wound up winning my league championship with that team.
When you catch lightning in a bottle with an Acuna or Sosa, you become addicted to trying to repeat the feat. But it’s not that easy. One year after Acuna and Sosa took the league by storm, the Blue Jays announced that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be called up from Triple-A Buffalo. Guerrero, considered the top prospect in baseball, had been drafted in the top 50 before the season started.
The optimists that drafted Guerrero in 2019 called him a disappointment. The pessimists called him a bust. Guerrero hit 15 home runs, scored 52 runs and had 69 RBI in 514 plate appearances, slashing .272/.339/.433. The following year, he played all 60 games but still only slashed .262/.329/.462. But in his third season, it all came together as Guerrero blasted 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601.
The lesson here is that it usually takes time for a top prospect to reach his potential. Acuna and Soto were clearly outliers. This year, the top prospect was Bobby Witt, Jr. Fantasy managers were drafting him in the middle rounds – usually somewhere around pick No. 100. I took him with the 92nd pick in a Yahoo public league draft and was able to nab him with the 119th pick in an ESPN draft.
Witt got off to slow start. In mid-April, he was slashing .107/.138/.250, with a .388 OPS. Then, things started to turn around. Through Monday night’s action, Witt is slashing .236/.276/.448, with six home runs, 23 runs and 24 RBI in 185 plate appearances. Those aren’t Hall of Fame numbers, but Witt managers have to feel a lot more encouraged now than they did six weeks ago.
My point is that while prospects are the lifeblood of dynasty leagues, their impact in redraft leagues is often overestimated. But not always. Just because a player hasn’t played a single major league game doesn’t mean he can’t make a significant contribution to your team. But drafting him in the early or middle rounds is risky. Consider the case of Oneil Cruz, another 2022 fantasy draft darling.
Cruz electrified the fantasy baseball world with 38 plate appearances last year. He started out with a strong run at Double-A last season, slashing .292/.346/.536 with 12 home runs and 18 steals in 62 games. He followed that with six games at Triple-A and two games with the Pirates in the majors. He hit .466 with six home runs, nine strikeouts and eight walks in those eight games.
The accolades about Cruz were rolling in, and it propelled him to an ADP of 219. I was singing his praises in a column I wrote for CreativeSports, posted February 14th. “His most bankable fantasy-relevant tool is his power,” I wrote. “Cruz’s 6-foot-7 frame enables him to leverage the ball in a manner matched by few sluggers…He has the flexibility to golf out balls below his knees for home runs.”
As I write this, Cruz is still languishing in Triple-A and is currently out with an ankle injury. He’s barely hitting over .200. He has two chances of being called up by Pittsburgh before the end of the season – slim and none. I dropped him last Sunday night to add a starting pitcher on my TGFBI team. I simply don’t want to waste one of my seven precious bench spots on Cruz.
Please consider Cruz as nothing more (or less) than a cautionary tale. Another one is Jarred Kelenic, the 2021 rookie flavor of the spring. He was being drafted by fantasy managers in the 2021 draft alongside Wander Franco. Franco eventually paid off for managers willing to wait on him, but Kelenic was a bust. If you were riding the Kelenic hype train last year, you remember it vividly.
After crushing in Triple-A, Kelenic was called up and made his highly anticipated Major League debut on May 13, 2021. His first appearance came against Cleveland, and he had a double and his first home run. Then the wheels fell off. Kelenic ultimately struggled in his first stint with the Mariners, ended up with an 0-42 drought at the plate before being sent back down in early June.
The lesson for me is that I’m not going to use a draft pick to take a prospect in the early or middle rounds of another draft – especially when they’re not even on the major league team’s roster. However, later in the draft, I’ll add a prospect I like to my fantasy team roster. This is especially true in deeper leagues. I’m always looking for a player with a huge upside at a cheap price.
The premium prospects being selected in drafts this year included position players Witt, Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Gabriel Moreno, Cruz, Brendon Davis, Triston Casas, Jeremy Pena, M.J. Melendez, Josh Lowe, Alek Thomas, amongst others. Some of the top pitchers were Shane Baz, MacKenzie Gore, Grayson Rodriguez, George Kirby and Nick Lodolo.
If you’re a fantasy manager, you know that some of these players have already made their presence felt. I lost out on MacKenzie Gore in my TGFBI league, grossly underbidding on him. I wish I had known that he would pitch his way to a 3-1 record, with a 1.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 47 strikeouts across six starts. I would have gladly paid up for him. I did get Gore on one of my other teams.
I drafted Shane Baz in one my other teams but was then disappointed to learn that he was forced to undergo arthroscopic right elbow surgery at the end of March. He’s on the 60-day IL, and I’m holding him and hoping he will rejoin Tampa Bay on in early June. There’s still plenty of time for him to make an impact. Check your waiver wire and see if he’s out there. If so, get him now.
Here are more prospects that are widely available that you might consider adding – especially in deeper leagues. I am in no way guaranteeing that any of these rookies are going to help you win a fantasy championship. All I am saying is that they have the potential to help your team. You need to take a look at your roster and understand your situation before adding any of them.
JUAN YEPEZ, 1B, ST. LOUIS
I wrote about Yepez last week, and I just want to add that he’s still widely available in all leagues. A little history for you. When Matt Adams was traded to Atlanta in 2017, Atlanta sent Yepez to the Cardinals. At the time, this seemed to be a very minor trade, but when it’s all said and done, it could turn out to be an absolute steal for St. Louis. He’s now an everyday play, so you should get him.
ROANSY CONTRERAS, SP, PITTSBURGH
Contreras, 22, has been impressive in his first two starts for the Pirates since returning from the minors. He has compiled a line of two earned runs on eight hits and three walks, with eight strikeouts in those 10 innings. Again, this is a small sample size, but Contreras has an impressive pedigree and certainly has the potential to be a front-line starter for the Pirates.
DEVIN SMELTZER, SP, MINESOTA
Talk about a prospect who came out of nowhere, Smeltzer showed up on the Twins roster a few weeks ago and has done nothing but impress. In his first three starts, he went 1-0, with an ERA of 1.04 and a 0.81 WHIP. His fourth start ended as I was wrapping up this column on Tuesday, and he’s on his way to earning his second victory. I picked him up in my TGFBI league last Sunday.
JOSE MIRANDA, 3B, MINNESOTA
Fresh off the press, Miranda is back with the Twins. He was called up on Monday to replace Royce Lewis who hit the injured list with a bone spur. If you had Miranda earlier this season, you probably dropped him. He slashed .164/.200/.284 in 19 games and was sent down last Sunday only to be called up a day later. In his first game back, he went 2 for 4, with a home run and two RBI.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, will be on vacation for the next two weeks. He will return to write more about baseball and football for CreativeSports. In the meantime, follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
