I’ve spent the past few days prepping for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, a collection of 15-team roto leagues organized by Justin Mason of Friends with Fantasy Benefits. For those unfamiliar with the format, 195 industry peeps are, as of this writing, navigating the league’s 13 separate slow drafts. The rosters are huge and the competition is fierce. Winners will be crowned in each individual league, and some lucky fool will hit every lottery ticket this year and take home the overall title and $1,000.
I was happy to land the third pick in my 15-team room, settling on Trea Turner. It’s more of a gamble than I’d take in a typical format, but in a 15-teamer against tough competition — and the need to really go for the glory to take home the top prize — I decided on the upside of the Nats’ 24-year-old speedster.
Part of my reasoning is that stolen bases are down league-wide and I don’t want to spend the middle rounds reaching for speed at the expense of other categories. I also like the opportunities to get discounted power up and down the draft board. For those who go heavy on speed or pitching early, the following are some of my favorite targets at their current NFBC ADPs.
Steady Dingers
Justin Upton (48.13)/Khris Davis (69.25): When your first-round pick is projected for 18 dingers, you need to invest in at least some bankable power early. Davis has hit exactly .247 three years in a row, and his two seasons in Oakland are remarkably similar: 42/85/102 and 43/91/110. Upton is a consistent bet for 30 homers, 90 RBI and double digit steals.
Consistent Pop, Fair Prices
Trevor Story (118.53): Mid-20s pop, fresh Colorado air. I’m typically looking elsewhere for middle infielders, but Story outside the top 100 is pretty easy money for those waiting on power.
Carlos Santana (170.7): Probably my favorite mid-round pick this year, Santana is leaving a fairly neutral ballpark and heading to Philly, one of MLB’s most notorious homer-friendly confines. He’s one-year removed from a career-high 34 home runs and slated to bat third in front of young slugger Rhys Hoskins.
Ian Happ (136.32): What’s not to like about Ian Happ’s rookie season? The lefty swinger hit for legit power while playing second base and all three outfield spots. The former first-round pick clubbed 24 bombs in just 413 plate appearances, with eight stolen bases to boot.
Reds and Former Reds
Jay Bruce (161.32): The fact that the Reds are so familiar with undynamic power hitters speaks to their abrupt downfall four years ago. But for fantasy purposes all of these guys can help, starting with Mr. Consistent Jay Bruce. Still just 30 years old, Bruce has 277 career longballs and has averaged 35 with 90 RBI over the past two seasons spanning stints in Cincy, New York and Cleveland.
Adam Duvall (172.96): Who needs Bruce when you can run out another .250-ish power hitter in Cincinnati’s little ballpark. He’ll probably lose a few at bats to a four-man outfield rotation, but I see the righty sitting the least out of the group (two lefties and switch hitter/.298 OBP man Billy Hamilton). And I like when a player’s previous two seasons look identical:
2016: 33/85/103 .241 average, .795 OPS
2017: 31/78/99 .249 average, .782 OPS
Scooter Gennett (204.62): The four-homer bro himself, Gennett’s lefty swing found a home at Great American Ball Park last year en route to a 27/80/97 line over just 461 at bats. The starting second base job is his, and he could end up batting fourth behind Joey Votto. You’re almost assured double digit homers, and why wouldn’t he push 100 RBI again with even more playing time and that batting slot?
Todd Frazier (285.3): Dropped off the past couple years in counting stats, but still a big swinger with plenty of playing time. The stolen bases are dwindling, but this is a guy who hit 75 bombs over two seasons prior to last year’s disappointing 27.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
