Before 1980, La Rotisserie Francaise restaurant on 52nd Street in New York City was mainly known for their French cuisine. But when a group of sportswriters began to regularly meet there in 1980 to draft real life baseball players onto their imaginary teams, the restaurant became best known for the birthplace of fantasy baseball and fantasy sports. No longer would baseball fans have to participate in simulated games. They would now be rewarded by the actual, real-time performance of the players they picked for their teams. Of course, in the early days of rotisserie baseball, “real-time” was a relative term in that most teams received their players’ statistics and the standing of their team once a week by fax or mail.
Fantasy baseball has since grown into an industry that has spawned new phrases and words into our common lexicon. “Roto” we know refers to a particular format of fantasy baseball. We now refer to players whose true value is hidden from the masses as “sleepers.” Before fantasy baseball, a “keeper” was how your parents might have referred to your latest boyfriend or girlfriend. But now if you run a dynasty team, you need to identify who your “keepers” will be from the previous season. Then we have those enigmatic late bloomers called “post hype prospects” whose star tragically faded after initial acclaim only to see it rise once again in their later years unexpectedly.
Many factors are involved in what creates a post hype prospect in the first place and evaluating whether a prospect will remain irrelevant or become a draftable commodity once again. Some are not ready or become injured when their opportunity comes. Others become ready at a time when there is no opportunity. Still others simply mature more slowly than expected.
One of the most recent cases of a post hype prospect is J.D. Martinez. Drafted in the 20th round of the June Amateur Draft in 2009 by the Astros, J.D. made quick work of the minor leagues. From 2009 to 2011, he batted .348, .341 and .338 with OPS marks of .997, .937 and .959. Many dynasty managers were hot to get their hands on him when the Astros promoted him to the big leagues in 2011. After an encouraging 53 games as a rookie batting .274, the wheels fell off over the next two seasons as he painted the picture of a mediocre journeyman outfielder. He hit .241 and .250 in 2012 and 2013 getting part time at-bats for the then rebuilding Astros along with the likes of Brandon Barnes, Brian Bogusevic and Justin Maxwell. The Astros released him during spring training of the following season on 3/22/2014, probably well after all his dynasty managers had done the same. But when the Tigers signed him only two days later, a post hype prospect beast was born. He went on to average 37 home runs a year from 2015 to 2019, had an OPS of over 1.000 in 2017 and 2018 and led the majors in RBI with 130 for the Red Sox in 2018.
Let’s look at who might assume that post hype prospect mantle this year. Feel free to draft these players conservatively in your dynasty league. Most managers have probably written them off.
BRENDAN MCKAY, TAMPA BAY RAYS
Once upon a time, if you missed out on drafting Shohei Ohtani, your thirst for a two-way player was quenched by drafting Brendan McKay.At the University of Louisville, McKay was a true two-way star. An Ohtani at the collegiate level. In three years, he had OPS figures of .849, .928 and 1.116. On the mound, he had a 32-10 record and posted K/9 figures of 10.9, 10.5 and 12.1. After the Rays made him the number four overall pick in the 2017 draft, the hype was on. In 2018 playing in his first professional season at the Rookie, A and A+ levels, he did nothing to douse that prospect fire. He pitched 78 1/3 dominant innings with a 2.41 ERA and a sparkling BB/K ratio of 14/103. At the plate, he had a respectable .727 OPS. Entering the 2019 season as MLB’s number 29 prospect, however, his hitting began to seriously diminish his two-way appeal. His OPS dipped to .629 while he remained dominant on the mound with a 1.10 ERA and another unworldly BB/K ratio of 18/102. So it was his prowess on the mound, not his hitting, that earned him a call-up to the majors where he made 11 starts and pitched to a 5.14 ERA in 49 innings. However, his FIP was 4.03 due largely to another impressive ratio of 16 walks to 56 strikeouts. It was becoming clear that as a professional, it would be on the mound where his bread would be buttered. The steady erosion of his hitting skills no longer had fantasy managers dreaming of another Ohtani. But still he entered the 2020 season on everyone’s draft radar, peaking as MLB’s number 15 prospect.
Alas, to create a post hype prospect, there must be a valley not just a peak. The valley was shoulder surgery, a forearm strain and thoracic outlet surgery since 2020. Furthermore, coming back in 2021 in the minor leagues, he limped to a 7.82 ERA at the Rookie, Double-A and Triple-A levels and went only 2 for 22 at the plate. Suddenly he was all but forgotten as a fantasy asset, probably remaining so for this year’s drafts. But consider his prospect pedigree and the team he plays for. After enduring so many injuries, how could anyone not expect him to struggle? The impeccable command of the strike zone he displayed both in the minor leagues and majors at such a young age bodes well for his future. Remember, he was not just a high prospect. He produced at every level until he was hurt. Now finally healthy, couldn’t one also expect a return to that command? The team he plays for only enhances that possibility. The Rays have a history of providing a plethora of roles under which a pitcher might succeed. Whether it be as an opener, a starter, a bulk reliever, a middle reliever or a set-up man, McKay could step into any one of them after beginning the season in the minors and become an asset to a fantasy team. Just don’t expect a Shohei Ohtani.
LOGAN S. ALLEN, CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
First of all, there are entirely too many Logan Allens playing professional baseball these days. There’s Logan Shane Allen, a left-handed pitcher drafted by the Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2015 draft, traded to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel deal, then traded to Cleveland in 2019 as part of the Trevor Bauer deal. Then there’s Logan Taylor Allen, also a left-handed pitcher drafted by the Orioles out of high school in the 16th round of the 2017 draft and then (quite unfairly) drafted by–yes, you guessed it–Cleveland out of college in the 2nd round of the pandemic shortened 2020 draft. So the Guardians now find themselves with two left-handed pitchers named Logan Allen. Then there’s Logan Neil Allen, an outfielder (thank goodness) drafted by the Rays in the 14th round of the 2019 draft. And of course there’s Logan Allen the 17-year-old actor who was in the movie Sweet Magnolia and will be in the 4th season of the series Stranger Things.
Logan S. Allen began his career with the Padres with a couple of impressive seasons in the minors. In 2017, he made 23 starts in A and High-A and registered a BB/K ratio of 3.2/10.2. Importantly, his performance did not suffer after a promotion to Double-A and Triple-A in 2018 where he posted another stellar BB/K ratio of 3.1/9.1 in 24 starts. It was a performance that catapulted Logan S. Allen to the number 74 spot in MLB’s top 100 prospects entering the 2019 season. He confirmed that prospect standing with a sparkling major league debut on June 18, 2019 for the Padres, pitching seven scoreless innings against the Brewers, allowing only three hits and striking out five. But here’s where the wheels started to mysteriously come off. He finished his stint with the Padres before the Trevor Bauer trade with a 6.75 ERA in 25 1/3 innings with a BB/K ratio of 13/14. Perhaps the absence of a 2020 minor league season was a detriment to his development because he was equally unimpressive in 2021 for Cleveland. His ERA in 11 starts was 6.26. It was even higher in Triple-A at a whooping 7.95. By this time, most fantasy managers had all but forgotten Logan S. Allen and moved on to Logan T. Allen who performed well last season at Akron in Double-A for Cleveland and is now the number 17 prospect in the Guardians system.
But don’t forget about Logan S. Allen just yet. There are some encouraging signs that might indicate this post hype prospect might still be draftable. Even though his ERA last season was 6.26, his xFIP was 4.84 indicating that he can still make hitters swing and miss. That capability can be directly traced to the optimal 10 mph difference between his fastball and changeup he’s been able to maintain even through his struggles. His fastball velocity in 2019 was 92.7 compared to 82.4 for his change-up. In 2021, his fastball remained at 92.7 with his change-up at 83.4 mph. Remember that when Cleveland traded away Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline in 2019, they must’ve saw something in Allen. They had to be thinking they wanted to get a viable starting pitcher for the future in return. Perhaps they put stock in that scoreless debut they saw against the Brewers just six weeks before the trade. Still only 24 years old, Allen has plenty of time to figure things out. Starting pitchers traditionally take longer to mature than position players. Not everyone can be Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber. More than likely Allen will start the season as a long reliever for the Guardians, but he should be next man up should anyone get injured or falter in the rotation. He did not have a particularly good spring training, but still maintained a good BB/K ratio at 2/9. That swing and miss is still there. Just be careful not to pick the wrong Logan Allen. Stranger things have happened.
JO ADELL, LOS ANGELES ANGELS
After drafted out of high school in the first round of the June amateur draft with the 25th overall pick, this Angels top prospect impressed in his third professional season in Double-A. He hit 11 HRs with 38 RBIs in 91 games with a .326 batting average and .958 OPS. However, when the Angels called him up as a 19-year-old, his prospect status took a hit in the eyes of many fantasy owners as he struggled in his first taste of the majors hitting only five homers in 40 games with a .220 batting average and .672 OPS. Many thought he was called up too early.
I’m not talking about Jo Adell. I’m talking about Mike Trout.
Jo Adell was also a first-round pick of the Angels out of high school and put up impressive numbers in his third professional season hitting 10 home runs with 36 RBI in 76 games with a .289 batting average and .834 OPS. His prospect status also took a hit when the Angels gave him his first taste of the majors in the shortened 2020 season as a 21-year-old. In 38 games, he hit only three homers with a .161 batting average and .478 OPS. His fantasy managers cringed even more last season when he hit only 4 homers in 35 games with a .246 batting average and .703 OPS.
This comparison is not to say Jo Adell is going to turn out to be a Mike Trout. It is to say that those fantasy owners who gave up on Trout after his initial call-up to the majors in 2011 suffered the same amount of anguish that current fantasy owners will experience if they give up on Adell. Considering he entered the 2020 season as MLB’s number six prospect, one would have to consider him a post hype prospect after his 2020 and 2021 production. But Adell is still only 22 years old with a truckload of raw talent and athleticism. He did take some baby steps forward at the plate in 2021. After an abysmal 41.7% strikeout percentage in 2020, he improved to 22.9% last season. His OPS improved from .478 to .703 and his wRC+ improved from 27 to 90. Yes, he was still worse than the league average in runs created last season but the improvement was still there. Then there’s his encouraging exit velocity numbers. His average exit velocity in both seasons was elite despite the lack of production, sitting at 90.6 mph in 2020 and 86.2 mph in 2021. By way of comparison, Bryce Harper’s exit velocity sat at 92.5 both of those seasons. Joe Maddon recently stated that he wants to get Adell 450 to 500 at-bats this season, so we’re going to get a representative body of work in which to see whether he improves or not. But if you’re a dynasty player, don’t let someone else reap the benefits of that improvement. It’s so easy to move on to the next shiny object in the prospect cupboard. Everyone is excited to see the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Jr. and Matt Brash in the major leagues this season. But who’s to say they won’t experience the same growing pains as Adell. You’ve already endured the worst of Adell. Now is the time for your investment to pay off.
It’s not a guarantee that all these players will repeat the J.D. Martinez career path, but just remember while La Rotisserie Francaise has gone out of business, the post hype prospect has not.
