As the 2020 Major League Baseball season remains in limbo, many Fantasy GMs (including myself) have chosen to postpone their drafts until a start date is announced. A delayed draft protects against the dreaded injury and provides more time for analysis. Keeping all this in mind, below are players, specific to points leagues, being undervalued along with some whose talents are being exaggerated.
UNDERVALUED
Carlos Santana 1B, CLE
Back with the Indians in 2019 after one subpar year with the Phillies, Santana returned to his usual form and delivered for fantasy managers finishing as hitter 14. So why is he being drafted as hitter 73 on average? There is an extremely wide gap in Santana’s value and where he is currently being selected due to the fact that it’s easy to overlook his best skill: OBP. Last season Santana’s walk rate was seventh in MLB and he was one of two hitters to have as many walks as strike outs, meaning he adds immense value with his eye that clearly is not being taken into account. Grab Santana before anyone else does.
George Springer and Michael Brantley OF, HOU
While the Astros offseason has generated much negative press, the result has been depressed rankings of their top hitters. The adjustment is warranted for some, however this is not the case for their top two outfielders. Last season Springer and Brantley finished as hitters 31 and 25 yet they are being drafted as hitters 23 and 62 currently. Springer only played 122 games in 2019 which makes his total in limited action even more impressive, and he finished seventh in fantasy points per game. Brantley’s undervaluation is nearly criminal given the large gap between last year’s finish and his current ADP. Keep in mind he was not a member of the 2017 Astros team so his stats will not suffer as a result of playing clean baseball.
Paul DeJong SS, STL and Andrelton Simmons SS, LAA
Better known for their gloves than bats, both these guys are being passed over in favor of younger shortstops due to the common misconception that they are only in the lineup because of their fielding. DeJong is being drafted as shortstop 18 when last season he finished ninth at the position in points and made the All Star team. Even though Simmons endured a below average 2019, he still hit over .300 and had one of the lowest strikeout percentages in all of baseball. Better health (146 game average for his career, 103 last year) and a revamped Angels lineup portends a stronger 2020.
Mike Clevinger SP, CLE
Known for his colorful gloves, Clevinger should have more respect from fantasy GMs. Despite missing over two months with a meniscus injury he still finished as pitcher 29 and, if sorted by points per start, SP3, behind only Gerrit Cole (more on him later) and Justin Verlander. That’s some elite company for someone being selected as SP10 and 44 overall on average. Clevinger is a Round 3 value who is available a full round later.
Madison Bumgarner SP, ARI
Have people forgotten how good Bumgarner was just a few years ago? Injury plagued 2017 and 2018 seasons along with an under the radar 2019 have distracted from prior excellence. A successful 2019 in which he led the NL in games started is a strong indicator that Bumgarner is back on track with a more powerful Diamondbacks team in 2020. Currently being drafted as SP42, MadBum deserves more respect and should be valued as a high end third starter, two rounds earlier than where he is being taken.
Matthew Boyd SP, DET
Boyd performed admirably for a horrible Tigers team before tailing off in the second half. His 11.5 K/9 rate was sixth among starting pitchers and a 4.76 K/BB ranked tenth proves Boyd has the skills to take his game to the next level once he can limit his home runs allowed (league leading 39 in 2019). For a pitcher who finished 36th in points last season, he is being drastically undervalued as SP66. Scoop Boyd up sooner than that, he is well worth the risk.
OVERVALUED
Pete Alonso 1B, NYM
Alonso had a phenomenal first year in 2019 that culminated in him breaking Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record and a finish as hitter 22. This year he is being drafted as hitter 17, and I don’t see where there is room to grow. He may work to cut down a top 15 strikeout rate while adding a few points to his OBP, but recent history suggests significant regression in the home run department. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are the most recent players to top 50 homers in a season while the following year they only belted 38 and 27 respectively. Alonso will be one of the top first baseman in 2020, however he is going a full round sooner than he should be.
Starling Marte OF, ARI
Marte is one of the few players capable of going 30/30 and is on a new team with a better offense in 2020 which all sounds good on the surface. The issue is he is much more valuable in non-points leagues and fantasy GMs are ignoring this. A bottom 10 walk rate significantly reduces his impact, evidenced by currently being drafted as hitter 20 despite concluding 2019 as hitter 39.
Mallex Smith OF, SEA
Smith has value in non-points league as he is one of the top base stealers in all of MLB, however he is currently being drafted as outfielder 44 when last season he finished 67 at the position. Last year he had the second lowest OPS of all qualified batters, this is someone who belongs on the waiver wire in points leagues.
Any Catcher Before Round 10
Cite positional scarcity all you want, but it is never worth it to reach for a catcher. Last season 4 of the top 10 finishers (starters in other words) went undrafted in most leagues. Use the early rounds to stock up on other positions and select a catcher with one of your last few picks. The waiver wire will provide a capable starter if your choice doesn’t pan out.
Gerrit Cole SP, NYY
Don’t get me wrong, Cole is one of the top pitchers in MLB and could very well end 2020 as the number one scorer. However, he is being drafted fourth overall on average while peers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are going 14 and 15. These guys are much more valuable at the later draft slot.
Luis Castillo SP, CIN
It’s difficult to pick holes in some of the top starters as they all have upside. That being said, Castillo is the pitcher that gives me the most pause. He had a breakout 2019 and was a first time all-star, driven by a sparkling 2.29 ERA in the first half. In the second half Castillo’s ERA more than doubled to 4.78 as hitters made adjustments. He is currently going as SP 15 whereas I would value him a round or two later.
The Top Relievers
If the 2019 season taught us anything, it’s to not select relievers too early. Two of the top three names off the board, Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen, tanked while the unheralded Will Smith and Liam Hendriks finished among the top five at the position. Cheap save options are always available on the waiver wire, pounce on those gems instead of grabbing the top names early.
