While many roto and category fantasy baseball leagues adopt standard 5×5 or 6×6 scoring, I’ve always been a proponent of the simpler points leagues because of the more balanced approach to team building and player evaluation. Player value in today’s game stems from sabermetrics and predictive stats like WAR (wins above replacement), wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) and FIP (fielding independent pitching). While numbers such as these can help in roto and category formats, they’re importance is far greater in all-inclusive points leagues that reward well-rounded players rather than super producers in the glorified standard roto categories.
I’m not here to talk down those formats as I play in a fair share of them myself. The emphasis is to know your league’s format so that you can properly evaluate players and identify bargains. For instance, Adalberto Mondesi is one of the top batters in roto leagues but in most points he’s outside of the top-100. This is the same player with the same statistics experiencing drastically different results according to format.
That advantage is walks and OBP in points leagues where walks are worth the same as a single, whereas they have no value (other than possibly leading to a run or stolen base) in other formats. The league is addicted to the glorified batting average, but taken directly from Fangraphs,” OBP is considered more accurate than Batting Average in measuring a player’s offensive value…” Focusing on the overlooked base on balls in points leagues will reveal which players are being incorrectly valued. When crossed with strikeouts, a stat that is also of greater value in the points format, we can identify players with increased potential due to maximizing walks and minimizing strikeouts.
The two stats used to measure this are BB% (walk rate) and K% (strikeout rate) which are calculated by walks or strikeouts divided by plate appearances. To compare them, I subtracted K% from BB% for the 310 players with at least 100 plate appearances last season and obtained a list of the batters who benefit most from patience. The 10 players who walked more than they struck out last season are found below and may surprise you.
There are a few studs and solid contributors with the less helpful Yandy Diaz and Tony Kemp thrown in. When crossing this list with each players’ points league finish and current 2021 ADP, not all are valuable, and I’ve swapped out such players for those who have more strikeouts than walks but are still elite when considering both rates. Below you will find the batters who carry far more value in points leagues and are being undervalued as a result.
Juan Soto WSH, OF | 99.7 BB-K percentile
How good was Soto in his junior season? In addition to leading the MLB in OBP, OPS and slugging, he posted the ninth best WRC+ in history and the eighth best OPS+ since 1950. While it may be tough to top that, Soto is currently going fifth among batters according to current ESPN ADP behind Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis. Last year Soto finished first in FPPG and is easily ahead of the more hyped Acuna and Tatis in points leagues due to his keen eye.
Will Smith C, LAD | 95.5 BB-K percentile
It’s difficult to call the third catcher taken on average undervalued, but Smith was actually 24th in FPPG last season and walks are why. The sophomore cut his strikeouts by 10% last year in addition to raising his walks by 5% and the result was a .401 OBP. Austin Barnes will receive his fair share of playing time behind the dish and a loaded roster with no DH means the bench for Smith in that scenario, but he’s a gifted hitter (.937 career OPS) and manager Dave Roberts will find ways to get his bat in the lineup.
Didi Gregorius SS, Phi | 88.1 BB-K percentile
Simply put, Gregorius was shortstop five on a FPPG basis last season yet is going as hitter 81 and shortstop 15. The main reason for Gregorius’ resurgence, other than health (played all 60 games), was a career-best 11.8 K%. When coupled with a 6.3 BB% near a career average of 6%, the shortstop is one of the best values at his position especially if he’s able to make positive strides in the walk department.
Giovanny Urshela 3B, NYY | 91.9 BB-K percentile
Since joining the Yankees in 2019, Urshela has posted a .310/.358/.881 slash line in 175 games and a role as the team’s starting third baseman in a stacked lineup means plenty of scoring and run-producing opportunities. The only primary third baseman who performed better than Urshela last season were Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon and Ke’Bryan Hayes, so his questionable 160 ADP despite finishing as hitter 35 in FPPG is a bit puzzling. Don’t hesitate to reach for Urshela.
Carlos Santana 1B, KC | 97.7 BB-K percentile
Santana has probably been my favorite bargain over the past five years because people tend to focus on his subpar batting average instead of his ability to draw walks. This was on display last season when he finished 93rd in FPPG despite a batting average below .200. Currently the 117th hitter taken on average, Santana should easily exceed that benchmark in points leagues.
Kyle Seager 3B, Sea | 96.8 BB-K percentile
A down 2018 and injury-plagued 2019 caused Seager to go undrafted in many leagues last year which allowed him to be one of the top waiver adds on his way to finishing as the 43rd hitter in FPPG. A big reason for the resurgence was a near identical 13.3 K% and 12.9 BB%. These numbers represent career bests in each category and a regression toward career averages of 17.3% and 8.6% is likely, but for someone going as hitter 130 with a 226 ADP he’s well worth the investment.
Aaron Hicks OF, NYY | 97.4 BB-K percentile
Going shortly after Santana as hitter 131, Hicks is in a similar spot. Most have forgotten his breakout 2018 due to an injury-plagued 2019 and other big names on the roster. As is, Hicks finished as the 95th best hitter last season according to FPPG and is set up well given he hardly costs anything on draft day.
Tommy La Stella 2B, 1B, SF | 99.4 BB-K percentile
La Stella built on a 2019 breakout to finish as the 29th best hitter in FPPG, yet he’s going as the 153rd hitter currently. This is a guy who was at least a top 50 batter in each of the past two seasons with a current ADP of 247. Yes, he’s on a new team but La Stella is no stranger to relocation and his .283/.352/.787 slash line with 64 walks and only 67 strikeouts in 258 games over the last three seasons is large enough to show that La Stella’s breakout is legitimate.
Brandon Belt 1B, SF | 92.9 BB-K percentile
Similar to other players featured, Belt paired a career-low K% and career-high BB% with the fourth highest OPS in MLB to finish as a top 50 batter last year. Expecting more of the same this year isn’t feasible, but Belt is going undrafted in most leagues and is still clearly a useful player.
Luis Arraez 2B, Min | 94.5 BB-K percentile
Relegated to a super-utility role after Minnesota signed Andrelton Simmons to be their everyday shortstop, Arraez is one of the league’s premier contact hitters evidenced by his top three 9.1 K% last season. Managers always find a way to get such players in the lineup. Even if a consistent role isn’t immediately apparent, Arraez doesn’t cost anything on draft day so at least keep him on the radar in points formats.
