I’m going to focus this week on looking ahead to the upcoming season, in particular, paying attention to players who I think could FINALLY break out after years of hype, players who I think could be available after drafts that you should watch, followed by who I think the top teams will be to start the season.
Strike 1
These are players that I think could at least get relatively close to the hype that once surrounded them as they worked their way through the minor leagues. These players used to be hyped but haven’t quite lived up to the hype. This may be their season.
At one point, Victor Robles was viewed in the Nationals system as a better prospect than Juan Soto. Now, Soto is a perennial MVP candidate and Robles looks like an average batter. Robles had a nice, but unspectacular 2019 season, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 28 bases, while batting .255. The Nationals are planning to use him as a leadoff hitter in 2021, which could improve his value a bit. He should get more of an opportunity to steal and score runs in a much-improved Washington lineup. He has to improve the strikeout rate and his on base percentage, and he is already working on that in Spring Training. If those things improve, Robles could be one of the top leadoff hitters in baseball.
Nate Lowe should get the lion’s share of the innings at first base for the Texas Rangers, and when he is not playing there, he can be the designated hitter. He’s only had 243 plate appearances in the majors, and if he is able to start a full season, he could potentially double the numbers he’s produced in his two major league stints. His 11% walk rate and a solid OBP will keep him in the Rangers’ lineup. He also has shown that he can hit the ball hard and well. Last season he struggled to do so, but in 2019 he had a 41% hard contact rate, and nearly 60% of his hits were either line drives or fly balls. Lowe has the makings to be a good player in 2021.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers was once a 40th overall pick in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft, signifying that he had a lot of promise. Unfortunately for him, the Astros, and fantasy baseball managers, McCullers had dealt with major injuries throughout his career. He’s never made more than 25 starts in a season. He’s landed on the injured list in 4 of his 5 major league seasons, including 2019 when he missed the year with Tommy John surgery. The positives are that McCullers has high strikeout upside, averaging 10 strikeouts per 9 innings for his career. He has a career 3.70 ERA but advanced ERA metrics like FIP and xFIP have him closer to a 3.20 career ERA. The upside is still there for McCullers, and if he can make all of his starts this season, he could finally pay off for the Astros and fantasy baseball managers.
Strike 2
This is a group of players who are likely to go undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues, but who could end up adding value to a team.
Shortstop Elvis Andrus was traded from the Rangers to the Athletics in the offseason and will serve as Oakland’s primary shortstop in 2021. When considering players for a fantasy sports roster, one of the most important qualifiers is opportunity to play. Andrus will have the opportunity to play every day in Oakland. That cannot go overlooked by fantasy managers, yet Andrus is going overlooked. Part of that is because he had an awful 2020 where he batted .194, though a .200 BABIP did not do him any favors. He should see some positive regression in his batting average in 2021 with more time at the plate. Andrus is a candidate for 20+ steals, which he’s done 10 times in his career, along with double digit home runs. He should be on everyone’s watch list going into this season.
2021 presents an opportunity for improvement from new San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani, after a down year in 2020. Last season was his worst by far, and although it makes him look like a bad pitcher, he should be closer to above average or good in 2021. DeSclafani saw a decrease in velocity and spin rate last season, which led to a dip in strikeouts and an increase in walks and home runs allowed. Despite last season, he could be a sneaky pick in deeper leagues, and someone to put on watch lists if he goes undrafted. Fantasy managers should look at how the Giants helped Kevin Gausman turn from a failed Oriole’s prospect into the anchor of San Francisco’s rotation. They helped increase his spin rate and worked on his pitch selection, both of which could be focal points in improving DeSclafani’s numbers in 2021. He should improve and could improve significantly this season and reward fantasy managers who keep a close eye on him.
San Francisco Giants third baseman Evan Longoria is far from the fantasy baseball stud he was early in his career, but he still maintains great value late in drafts or in free agency. He may end up losing some time to younger players, but the potential for 20 or more home runs is still there. He is a career .266 batter, and an average in the .250-.260 range is not out of the question for him this season. Longoria has had a solid hard contact rate recently, and that, along with good but not great barrel rates and launch angles in recent years, has helped maintain his ability to hit home runs. Longoria should be on fantasy managers’ radars as an excellent replacement player at the corner infield or third base slot in lineups.
Strike 3
The one big question everyone is going to argue about in regards to the 2021 MLB season actually has to do with last year. How much stock do we put in 2020 standings, considering how strange a season it was? It would be a mistake to completely write off the 2020 season when projecting power rankings for 2021. There were so many teams with players who were struggling for one reason or another, it’s difficult to know if teams who did poorly last year just experienced a fluky season. This list reflects teams’ rankings going into the 2021 season with all of those factors and more taken into consideration.
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres
- New York Mets
- New York Yankees
- Chicago White Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Oakland Athletics
- Washington Nationals
It should be no surprise to see the Dodgers atop anyone’s power rankings. They had the winningest record in 2020, had been contending for a World Series for years, and finally won last season. Signing Trevor Bauer certainly should help them retain their status as the top team in baseball. They have arguably the deepest bullpen in baseball, and two of the best players in the sport – Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger.
The White Sox have a solid mix of young and veteran talent on both sides of the ball. They have a great mix of power and speed. Liam Hendriks could be the best closer in baseball in 2021 and should lock down a very talented bullpen. It will be a close finish in the American League Central between the White Sox and Twins.
