Understanding positional depth will give you an advantage when putting together your draft strategy. It is a concept which may be foreign to some inexperienced drafters. Knowing what will be available (or not) to you a few or even a dozen rounds later can help you to make an informed and strategic selection now. I am always drafting about four to five rounds at a time. I am always trying to forecast what my next moves might be based on the current selection, and what the contingency plan might be when it doesn’t go as planned.
I have already, somewhat painstakingly, participated in 11 drafts this offseason, with five more scheduled and countless mock drafts as well. I have been through it, made the mistakes and learned the lessons and the strategies. Here is my overview and quick breakdown to help you write a roadmap for your upcoming draft.
CATCHER
The catcher position is the fantasy baseball abyss. The first strategy to consider is whether to draft J.T. Realmuto. There is no scenario where an inexperienced drafter should be taking him at an ADP of 38, the opportunity cost is simply too great. In a one catcher league, which, if you are starting a new league it should be only one catcher, you should be treating the catcher position as you do your fantasy kicker or defense in football. Let it go and take the last one and work the waiver wire if the one you got doesn’t work out, especially if it is 12 teams or fewer. In 15 teams or higher, you have to pay attention to ADP tiers. Realmuto would be prohibitive in round 3 unless you truly grasp how to fill out a team in rounds 15-20 with productive players.
Tier 2 is Sal Perez and Will Smith in round 8, and Tier 3 is about round 10 with Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, and Travis D’Arnaud. If you don’t get one of the top six, don’t panic and reach…just sit on it until the run starts much, much later and take what is there.
In two catcher leagues, I strongly recommend jumping in at Tier 3 and ensuring production from one of your two. Certainly, there are some decent quality late fliers, such as Alejandro Kirk or Ryan Jeffers, but those are best left for a C2 or deep bench spot.
12 Team Leagues: don’t dive in until Tier 3
15 Team Leagues: don’t dive in later than Tier 3
My Dynasty Targets: J.T. Realmuto, Will Smith, Daulton Varsho or punt
Quality Rating: Extremely scarce in 2 C leagues
FIRST BASE
First base has been a vast wasteland in recent years, but it has seen some improvement this year. With the addition of Jake Cronenworth and Vlad Guerrero, and the emergence of Dominic Smith, there is a lot more meat on the bones. Still, this is generally a Tier 1 or massive punt position for me. Cody Bellinger is one of my absolute favorite first round, even early second round, targets at ADP 14 in all formats. He is only 25 years old and being pushed down dramatically because of a sub par 2020, which most people seem to not realize is a small sample size, basically what we would normally call a slump or a hot streak. Reigning NL and AL MVPs Freddie Freeman and Jose Abreu each offer very solid production at a premium cost.
Looking at the rest of the positional landscape, it appears to be about 10 deep before a cliff. I’m not a believer in Luke Voit as an elite fantasy asset, and once exciting sleeper Rowdy Tellez seems to be the biggest loser in the acquisitions of George Springer and Marcus Semien. The opportunity cost at the position is simply too high until Paul Goldschmidt at about ADP 97 and, much later, for Rhys Hoskins at ADP 144, especially in OBP leagues.
12 and 15 Team Leagues: Bellinger or punt
My Dynasty Targets: Spencer Torkelson, Andrew Vaughn, Rhys Hoskins
Quality Rating: Pretty thin in most formats
SECOND BASE
I have been playing fantasy baseball for about 30 years, and for about the first 20 of it the middle infield positions only had two to five players you would have any interest in. That’s simply not the case anymore. Second base in 2021 is a place to win leagues. I don’t feel the need to use second round capital on DJ LeMahieu or Ozzie Albies when there are some three category dandies such as Nick Madrigal, Andres Gimenez, Ryan McMahon and Gavin Lux drafted outside of the top 200. It is plausible to wait that long before selecting your first 2B, but it also makes for a beautiful lineup build if you jump in the middle rounds for recency bias fallers Ketel Marte, Jose Altuve, or Mike Moustakas, making those sub 200 darlings an MI or bench/UT option for you.
In roto leagues, this is one of the best spots to attack steals, as there are at least 15 2B with the ability to get you over double digit steals.
12 Team Leagues: Jump in tier 3 after round 8, pair with a 3 category dandy in late rounds
15 Team Leagues: Can wait for sub 200 players and build your OF and SP early
My Dynasty Targets: Nick Madrigal, Jeter Downs
Quality Rating: Better than 1B and 3B
Shortstop
Shortstop is one of the deepest positions this year. ADP shows four going in round 1, three to four in round 2, and then a very high upside group after ADP 65 of Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez, both of whom were no lower than top 35 players before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Carlos Correa has an ADP of 116, which is completely disrespectful for the 26-year-old. It’s almost impossible in a 12 team draft this year to not love your first shortstop. The trade of Marcus Semien, addition to the pool of Ha-Seong Kim, and quiet solid production of Paul DeJong gives plenty of late targets that would be drafted much higher at different positions.
When looking at dynasty leagues, it is far and away the deepest position. Whether investing in the major league, prospects, or even deep prospect levels, this is the position with abundant studs, a huge change from decades past. The Dominican Republic is a shortstop factory, giving us at least 10 SS signed this past January 15th that will be fantasy relevant down the road.
12 and 15 Team Leagues: Keep drafting shortstops at every level and tier. The position is absolutely packed. Just don’t do the Adalberto Mondesi thing, not worth it.
My Dynasty Targets: Fernando Tatis, Wander Franco, Marco Luciano, Carlos Correa, Wilman Diaz, CJ Abrams, the anointed one Bobby Witt Jr., Cristian Hernandez….I can go on for several days
Quality Rating: Deepest position in the game
THIRD BASE
Most will tell you that the Nolan Arenado trade destroys the high end of this position. I’m here to tell you the opposite. In the third round, he was already priced as if out of Coors. Now that he actually did move, you will be able to get him in round 5 which is an absolute steal. Home runs should sustain, average will drop, but the RBI and runs should actually increase. Jose Ramirez is the gold standard of the position and the only first round talent, but we’ve seen him tank for extended periods and he just isn’t a player I want to invest that draft capital in.
There is a solid tier later on, after ADP 40, of Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, and Rafael Devers. Arenado should fall somewhere into this tier now. I’m not personally a Devers guy, but any of the other three are a great spot to dive in for me.
My favorite value at the position is Kris Bryant at ADP 128. I could easily see a scenario where the former MVP, scheduled for free agency after the season at 29 years old, puts 2020 behind him and becomes a top three fantasy option at the position once again. There are also serviceable options after 200, such as Jean Segura and Justin Turner.
12 Team Leagues: There are six high end options and about seven other startable options, so need to reach
15 Team Leagues: It dries up at the end, don’t wait too long, especially if you need a CM as 1B is even worse
My Dynasty Targets: Kris Bryant, Ke’Bryant Hayes, Jordan Groshans, Alec Bohm
Quality Rating: Uncomfortable but not as bad as 1B
OUTFIELD
I generally commit myself to having one outfielder through the first two rounds. The position is very stacked at the top, then thins out, but is extremely deep. You can find viable, productive players into the 300s. You will generally do best to fill your UT slot with an outfielder, unless you listened earlier and didn’t stop drafting shortstops. The talent base is basically equal to 1B, 2B, and 3B combined, but that’s simple math as MLB teams start three at the position. Because of this, it is also a position which is fixable during the season if you didn’t put a premium on it in the draft, as the waiver wire will always have outfielders.
12 Team Leagues: Take your time. If you aren’t in top 5 picks, you have the entire draft to fill these spots, there are plenty of options
15 Team Leagues: I like to have one in first two rounds and two by round ten. You can wait for the rest, but keep a spot open because you’ll be surprised of the talent you’ll find very late
My Dynasty Targets: Ronald Acuna, Eloy Jimenez, Austin Meadows, Jarred Kelenic, Kristian Robinson, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Larnach
Quality Rating: Easy street, there is always another option available
RELIEF PITCHER
Dumpster fire. If you are in a draft and hold scenario, you need to secure a closer before round six. I cannot name five that I actually trust. The “closer” position has a turnover rate of over 60% year to year, and 2021 looks to be the utter worst I’ve seen. It used to be a thing to take the closer on a bad team, as they will play mostly close games, but there are more bad teams than ever and most do not have a candidate that excites me. I recommend getting into a league with SOLDS (saves+holds).
12 and 15 Team Leagues: If you get shut out of Josh Hader, Liam Hendricks, Brad Hand, Aroldis Chapman, and maybe Edwin Diaz and Trevor Rosenthal , I’d sooner spend some speculative bench spots on maybe closers and spend FAAB on the position rather than draft capital
My Dynasty Targets: Josh Hader, James Karinchak, Devin Williams, Tejay Antone
Quality Rating: The worst. Bust rate is higher than success rate
STARTING PITCHER
A lot of personal preference here. Many fantasy managers refuse to leave the second round without an ace, and in points environments that may be necessary. Truth be told, the top 10 starting pitchers fluctuates from year to year. Both Cy Young winners last year didn’t sniff the top 10, and now are going as high as round 1. I personally see the cut off of “aces” at 13 pitchers, or round three with Brandon Woodruff, so it is possible in 12 team leagues to start with two hitters and still get a bone a fide anchor for your rotation. There will be pitchers in the next few rounds who perform as top 10 pitchers this year, with Tyler Glasnow and Zach Plesac my personal favorites. You can also solidify your SP2 or even SP3 with older, disrespected favorites such as Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin or Zack Greinke.
I am not a big fan of the higher-end prospects in the starting pitcher pool. My prospect rankings go about 25 deep before the first pitcher appears. In dynasty leagues, I’m not spending high draft capital on a pitcher unless it is a top three round ace. Let the Sixto Sanchez and Mackenzie Gores go. If you do your homework, there are literally hundreds of pitchers with the potential to rise up the rankings once they get exposed to professional coaching and technology, refine secondary pitches, and fill out their body.
Quality Rating: “Aces” go 13 deep. If you don’t get one, it’s ok you can fix it by getting two high end SP2, although it is not necessarily broken. There are always streaming options available late, even on waiver wire. Let your opponents reach for youth, and fill your roster with solid, consistent veterans. When pitchers get hurt, it is usually catastrophic, so I don’t like over-investing (I will have zero first round pitchers on my redraft teams).
My Dynasty Targets: basically, anyone named Zach or Zack, Aaron Civale, Corbin Burnes, Elisier Hernandez, Deivi Garcia, Brad Keller, Daniel Espino, Reid Detmers
