Late week, I explained how I incorporate Statcast data into my pitching analysis. For a review of the methodology, please click HERE. This week, a couple more pitchers will be evaluated.
Pick
Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins, Starting Pitcher
| K-xOPS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K% | H% | BB% | HR% | SwStr% | aSGP | |
| Actual | -0.369 | 153.2 | 10 | 4.04 | 1.07 | 27.1% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 15.0% | 0.39 |
| Expected | -0.352 | 152 | 10 | 2.94 | 1.12 | 27.1% | 19.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 15.0% | 1.39 |
| Actual Full Season | -0.369 | 154 | 10 | 4.04 | 1.07 | 27.1% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 15.0% | 0.39 |
| Expected Full Season | -0.352 | 174 | 11 | 2.94 | 1.12 | 27.1% | 19.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 15.0% | 2.71 |
aSGP Values based on a 10 team, 5×5, 9 pitchers league. aSGP Values without Win SGP’s included.
Maeda last had a full season of starts back in 2016 when he put up 175.2 IP, 16 wins, 179 strikeouts, 3.48 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP. Since that season, the Dodgers chose to make use of their deep pitching resources and deploy Maeda with between 20 to 26 starts, 29 to 39 appearances and 125.1 and 153.2 IP. In 2019, despite just 26 starts and spending all of September in the pen, the 31-year-old right hander was the #34 SP on my player rater.
When we take a look at the expected stats we find that Maeda was a little unlucky with the long ball (3.5% actual versus 2.7% expected) and with ERA (4.04 actual versus 2.94 expected). The indicators also come back with high marks. Maeda’s 15% SwStr fully backs his 27.1% K rate. His BB% checks in at the 53rd percentile but his strike% was in the 65th percentile. The K%-xOPS was also very good at -35.2%, ranking him as the #17 SP in that metric.
Maeda has five pitches in his arsenal, with four of them having a positive PVal. The fastball and cutter are plus pitches while the slider and changeup are “plus-plus”. The veteran also appears to know his strengths and weaknesses as he uses his fastball and cutter only 38.2% of the time combined while utilizing his strongest pitches (slider and changeup) 30.8% and 23.8%, respectively.
According to fantasypros.com, Maeda is being drafted as the #48 SP. In just 26 starts he was the #34 SP. His full season expected aSGP would have made him the #19 SP and his full season expected aKEW (SGP value that excludes wins) make him the #17 SP. Lastly, the indicator percentile rankings that I assembled from fangraphs.com include SwStr%, Strike%, Zone Contact% and O-Zone Contact% rank him as the #9 SP, sandwiched between Jacob deGrom and Luis Castillo.
Verdict: With a full workload, Maeda should be a shoe in as a top 25 SP with top 15 upside but is being drafted as the #48 SP. This is one of my, if not thee, strongest starting pitcher buys this draft season.
Split Decision
Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves, Starting Pitcher
| K-xOPS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K% | H% | BB% | HR% | SwStr% | aSGP | |
| Actual | -0.444 | 174.2 | 13 | 2.68 | 1.11 | 20.3% | 21.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 10.0% | 2.42 |
| Expected | -0.491 | 171 | 13 | 3.04 | 1.19 | 20.3% | 23.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 10.0% | 1.11 |
| Actual Full Season | -0.448 | 200 | 15 | 2.68 | 1.1 | 19.8% | 21.4% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 10.0% | 4.22 |
| Expected Full Season | -0.491 | 196 | 15 | 3.04 | 1.19 | 20.3% | 23.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 10.0% | 2.71 |
The curious case Soroka. In 2019 Soroka was the #19 SP after posting 13 wins, a 2.68 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a 20.3 K% across 29 starts. These are excellent numbers for any pitcher, let alone a 21-year-old rookie. However, looking under the hood, it’s a mixed bag.
The bad news: Soroka had a 1.11 WHIP but an expected WHIP of 1.19, due to the fact that he was a bit fortunate in the hit department (21.8% versus 23.3%). Additionally, he had a below average K% of 20.3 which is supported by a 10% SwStr.
The good news: Despite Soroka’s propensity to give up contact it tends to be on the ground (7th in ground ball rate among SP’s with at least 100 IP) and his expected HR% of 1.9 was good for 5th. He also has solid control with a 5.8 BB%, which was good for 23rd. The fact that Soroka has good control and does not allow a lot of quality contact maximizes his run prevention, as evidenced in his expected ERA of 3.04.
The reasons for optimism: Soroka is still young and learning how to pitch. While his fastballs (2 seamer and 4 seamer) had “plus-plus” PVal results they only generated about a 6% SwStr. He used these two pitches 63.4% of the time. Meanwhile, his two off-speed offerings (slider and changeup) also had “plus-plus” PVal results but they generated a SwStr% of 16.3 and 22.2, respectively. He used his slider 24.2% and his changeup 12.3% of the time. As Soroka hones his craft we may very well see an increased usage of his swing and miss pitches to get more K’s and his excellent changeup could be an asset to keep LHB’s off balance (.512 OPS v RHB and .759 OPS v LHB).
Last year, Soroka was the actual #19 SP but the expected #27 SP. When taking wins out of the equation he was the actual #19 SP but the expected #33 SP. Over a full Season and taking out Soroka’s win value, his expected value pegged him as the #23 SP. His current ADP is the #25 SP.
Verdict: Split decision. In a shortened season redraft league Soroka is going for about face value. He’s currently more of an accumulator of value than a per game generator of value. However, in a dynasty league, even if Soroka is merely an accumulator of value he’s proven that he can pitch deep into games, has excellent size (6’5”, 225), and there’s plenty of reason to believe that he can take a career path that resembles vintage to peak Madison Bumgarner.
