Pine Tar Posts is a new bi-monthly column that will hopefully provide entertaining and informative fantasy baseball material while sprinkling in some real baseball news, trivia, antidotes, etc. Any comments and/or materials from readers are welcome.
Rotisserie vs. Head to Head Leagues
A few weeks ago, Drew Armer posted an interesting article on this website titled “Why I Choose Daily H2H Leagues Over Roto.” Having played in both Head to Head & Roto leagues, I certainly understand the drama of the H2H playoffs that he so aptly described, but as you will see below, Roto can offer some real excitement of its own.
Of the leagues I compete in, my favorite by far is a 15-team high stakes keeper league with rotisserie scoring, which last season offered the most exciting finish I’ve experienced. It was a battle between three teams for third and fourth place, with third being worth $2500, fourth $1000 and fifth nothing.
At the start of the final week of the season, the standings were as follows:
Team X 100.0 Pts.
Team Y 98.0 Pts.
My Team 96.0 Pts
Analyzing the various categories, I knew I had a decent shot at third, and thanks to gaining 2 points each in strikeouts & WHIP, the standings at the end of the week were:
Team X 100.0 Pts.
My Team 100.0 Pts.
Team Y 99.0 Pts.
However, as we all know, last year that wasn’t the end of the season. There were two more tie-breaker games to be played; the Dodgers vs. the Rockies and the Cubs vs. the Brewers. To say the least, those games were going to be critical to our standings.
Team Y had Walker Buehler starting for the Dodgers and his resulting W gave them 0.5 Pts, but their only hope of gaining that extra half point needed to forge a three-way tie rested on the unlikely possibility that Daniel Murphy might get a stolen base, which fortunately for me did not happen.
Team X had Albert Almora Jr. and Joc Pederson active on that final day, and one HR or one SB from either would have given him third place by himself. Again, my good luck held out and he failed to gain any points.
As for my team, my hopes were pinned on Chris Taylor and Justin Turner — a home run from either one would have gained a half point and put me in third by myself. Alas, that did not happen, and the final standings were:
Team X 100.0
My Team 100.0
Team Y 99.5
Can’t get much closer than that.
In summary, both formats can offer up exciting finishes, but what sets roto apart for me is the weekly analysis of the categories and how I can set my lineup, or what free agent(s) I can acquire, to pick up those precious points in a given category. Probably a bit boring and nerdish to some, but very challenging to me.
Stan Musial
I ran across an interesting fact about Hall of Famer Stan Musial, one of my all-time favorites. During his career he amassed 3,630 hits, but what was amazing was that he had 1,815 at home and 1815 on the road. Is that the epitome of consistency?
Although he was by no means a speedster, Musial stole a total of 78 bases over his career — 39 at home and 39 away. Even his lifetime batting averages of .336 at home and .326 away show remarkable consistency.
Pre-Season Summary of My Fantasy Drafts
Most fantasy baseball writers who write about their draft strategies, or results, are well-established veterans of the game who most often compete at the highest levels, like the NFBC Main Event. As a novice writer who will be competing in six leagues this season, only one of which would be considered a high stakes contest, I thought I would offer up a recap of my 2019 drafts. Hopefully, many readers will find this relevant to their experiences and, as always, comments are welcome.
When competing in multiple leagues, I almost never own one of the top 50 players on more than half of my teams — in fact, less than half is preferable. The reason has to do with my strong belief that you don’t win leagues in those early rounds, but you can certainly lose them. Those rounds offer drafters the opportunity to pick up talented players who set the base for the remainder of their draft. However, a serious injury, or a case of under-performance, from any one of your early rounders, can wreak havoc with your fantasy team. Owning a top-rounder on several teams who suffers a serious injury can make for a pretty dismal fantasy season.
As far as top 50 players on my 2019 teams, I have Christian Yelich, Blake Snell, Kris Davis and Anthony Rendon on two teams each. From the next 50, I own two shares each of Ozzie Albies, Kenley Jansen, Daniel Murphy and Brad Hand. Solid players, but nothing out of the ordinary. How I finish this year, though, will weigh heavily on the performance of the many players I drafted outside the top 100 who I felt were undervalued, especially the ones I rostered on three or more of my teams.
Below is a brief recap of those players and my level of excitement for each. As the season progresses, I’ll offer updates on this group to evaluate if they were hits or misses.
Brandon Woodruff (Rounds 21, 22, 26 & $1 in NL Auction), Anabel Sanchez (22, 23, 26 & $1), and Caleb Smith (23, 24, 25, 27) are the only pitchers who were rostered on four of my six teams. Woodruff plays on a winning team and has a ton of upside in ratios and Ks, and with the exception of playing on a winning team, ditto for Smith. Sanchez seems to have re-discovered himself last year in Atlanta and now moves to a more pitcher-friendly stadium, bringing along his personal catcher from last season, Kurt Suzuki.
Francisco Cervelli (18, 18, 19, 20) was the only hitter to make it on four of my teams, and while I like Cervelli for the fact that he doesn’t hurt your average while offering some help elsewhere, having him four times is more a reflection of my philosophy of waiting on catchers, unless Realmuto is available at a good price.
Getting back to pitchers, Anthony DeSclafani, Charlie Morton and Will Smith each wound up on three of my teams. DeSclafani (23, 28, NL $1) flashed some signs near the end of last season that he could be a solid fantasy starter, with a good amount of Ks while playing on an improved team. Morton (9, 12, $3) is already a proven commodity and now moves to a more pitcher-friendly venue on another very good team. Although Smith plays on what might be 2019’s worst team, even bad teams win 60 or more games, and since they won’t be blowing anyone away, most of those wins should be save opportunities.
Miguel Cabrera (6, 14 & AL $15), Ryan O’Hearn (15, 20 & $6) and Aaron Hicks (8, 10, 11) found a home on three of my 2019 teams. The risk and reward with Cabrera is well known and I’m banking on the injuries being a thing of the past and him putting up big numbers in what I think will be a good Tiger lineup. I wrote a piece on O’Hearn being a deep sleeper, and although last year was a small sample size, he looks like a good risk. Hicks seems to be improving each year and if he can stay healthy should be a solid contributor again from the heart of that Yankee lineup.
There are several other mid to late rounders that I rostered once or twice, but wish that circumstances would have allowed me more. I’ll list them here, with explanations in some cases, and open them up for later discussion as the season progresses:
Mid-Round:
Kirby Yates: Could be MLB saves leader. Jose Alvarez
Cole Hamels: Brilliant second half in Chicago. Hyun-Jin Ryu
Jose Leclerc: Top closer, bad team. Adam Eaton
Later Rounds:
Chris Paddock: Young & talented.
Domingo Santana: Hot start!
Felix Pena: Very late round surprise. Asdrubal Cabrera
Pablo Lopez: Young & talented. Ji Man Choi
Corbin Burnes: Part of Milwaukee’s rotation. Corey Dickerson
Trevor Williams: Very solid without Ks. Franmil Reyes
Niko Goodrum: Expect even better. Brian Anderson
Jackie Bradley Jr.: I always expect more.
Jorge Solar: Overlooked in early drafts. Jeff McNeil
MLB Rule Changes & Fantasy Impact
From the standpoint of a baseball fan, I love the new rules that will be implemented in 2019 and 2020, especially those that will speed up the game like fewer mound visits, shorter commercial breaks and placing a minimum number of batters-faced restriction on relievers, but what effect, if any, will they have on our fantasy game? I think there are two of the new rules, both of which will be added in 2020, that will have a positive impact.
First, the fact that a reliever must face a minimum of three hitters unless it is the end of an inning should reduce the number of starters that get pulled in the fourth or fifth innings. Nothing is more disheartening than to have your starter removed with one or two outs in the fourth inning, especially when his team is leading. To be sure, it will probably still happen, but hopefully less often.
However, my favorite change, from both a fan and fantasy standpoint, is the reduction in September roster sizes from 40 to 28. As a fan who pores over each game’s stats, there will no more cumbersome box scores where each team rolled out eight to 10 pitchers. As a fantasy player, the change reduces the possibility of diminished roles from key players whose teams are out of contention or have clinched a playoff berth. I’m sure that many of you have experienced how maddening it can be when you’re in contention for a money spot in a roto league, or in a head-to-head playoff battle and one or more of your key players sits out a game, or more, to let the youngsters play.
The role of starting pitchers in Major League Baseball has been evolving for quite some time, to the point that we now have very few complete games and we even have a new phenomenon called openers. This of course has had a huge effect on our fantasy game. It wasn’t that long ago that drafters could find even mid-round starters like AJ Burnett or Tim Hudson who gave them a lot of innings with strikeouts and decent ratios, but what if fantasy baseball had been around in the 1960s? Take a look at this box score and despite the low strikeout totals per innings pitched, think of the impact either pitcher would have had on your ratios. Of course, more amazing than the fantasy aspect is the incredible number of pitches each threw in this game and the hitter who broke up this duel.
