I spent a fortune this weekend. Well, not real money, but FAAB in the NFBC Main and $1,400 auction leagues. While it’s too early to begin looking at standings in earnest, May is the time that we can realistically look at our teams and see if there are gaping holes or areas in need of supplementation.
My Main Event team is in sixth place (who cares as it is too early), but from looking at the roster, I am woefully weak in starting pitchers. My staff includes Chris Sale (on the way up again), Charlie Morton, Yu Darvish, Rich Hill, Jon Lester, Kyle Gibson, Marco Gonzales, Eric Lauer and Trevor Richards. While there are a lot of names there, there are few guys who I can write in the lineup every week. The NFBC forbids trading, and big time quality starting pitchers are rarely (never?) dropped. That leaves streaming. Streaming is a chore, and if there is a decent starting pitcher available virtually all teams are in on him.
Last week, Jake Odorizzi became available. Yes, I know that I wrote, “decent starting pitcher,” but when you are looking at the likes of Gibson, Gonzales, Lauer and Richards, Odorizzi becomes a lot more attractive. Add in the fact that he pitches in the American League Central, that his home park, Target Field, is 29th in runs scored, 27th in home runs allowed and 27th in walks allowed, and there’s a shot Odorizzi might actually be serviceable this year. Thus far, in a very small sample size, he has an ERA of 2.83, five wins in eight starts and a strikeout an inning.
Given the dearth of available starting pitching and the likelihood of a number of my starters getting hurt, it made sense (at least to me) to bid on Odorizzi. The question then became, “how much?” I’m an over-spender and not afraid to admit it. Sure, it would be great to outbid the rest of the league by $1. Yet, it could be devastating to get outbid by $1. I’d rather help to assure my player, rather than hoping that someone isn’t willing to pay a bit more than perceived value. Yes, this will leave me at a competitive disadvantage later in the year. So what? Permit me to explain.
First, the obvious. If you get a player in May, you have arguably five months of production of that player. If you get him in June, you have four months, and so on. If the player turns out to be any good, then five months is better than less than five months. Obvious.
But, Buster, doesn’t over-spending make it harder for you to get other players? Yes, potentially, but not necessarily. The NFBC is a 15-team league. Quality players are rarely cut. This year, in particular, top prospects are already up. MLB’s top 10 prospects for 2019 included 1. Vladimir Guerrero (taken), 2. Elroy Jimenez (taken), 3. Nick Senzel (taken), 4. Victor Robles (taken), 5. Fernando Tatis, Jr. (taken), 6. Forrest Whitley (taken), 7. Francisco Mejia (taken), Jesus Luzardo (injured, out for the season), 9. Keston Hiura (available, but mired in the minors), and 10. Pete Alonso (taken). Fangraphs top 20 prospects includes the following players due to make the MLB in 2019: Guerrero, Tatis, Whitley, Robles, Senzel, Jimenez, Kyle Tucker, Hiura, and Brandan McKay.
Simply put, there aren’t a whole lot of top prospects due to come up. A non-top prospect isn’t likely to garner the attention that a top prospect gets. So, there isn’t a whole lot to bid on. Add to that the fact that it won’t only be me bidding. Depending upon when a prospect gets called up or a decent player gets cut, there will be anywhere from six to as many as 15 teams bidding. Assuming just five teams still bidding, a reasonable bid on a player is, at best, a one in five shot of success. Figure in the fact that at least one team will likely perceive that it needs that player more than others, that team will likely overbid. Thus, what would be considered about a 20% success rate on a reasonable bid is actually much lower. So, to get a player, I necessarily have to overbid.
Let’s look at Odorizzi, who was owned in 37 of the 38 Main Event leagues (available only in my particular league). Based upon his statistics to date, his position, his upcoming schedule and his home park, I projected his value at about $85 FAAB. This wasn’t the amount that I would bid, it’s just the amount I thought he’d be worth. I’m generally higher on players that I want than the other managers are, and vice versa. That’s OK. Considering that, I subtracted 20% or $17 FAAB, and arrived at a sales price of $68 FAAB.
I know that $68 was a reasonable bid. I pretty much knew that if I went back to $85, I’d likely get Odorizzi. However, knowing that there wasn’t much in the immediate future to bid upon, and knowing that I’d rather overspend and get this remarkably average pitcher as opposed to kicking myself for being cheap, I went way past the $85 mark and settled on $123. I was willing to spend almost $40 more than what I thought I needed to spend in an already inflated evaluation.
I got Odorizzi. No surprise there. The second place bid was a paltry $51, so I overpaid by almost one and one half times. And I’m quite pleased. I also overpaid for Nate Lowe, but I’ll leave that to another column.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
