People who play fantasy baseball all know who the fantasy “studs” are. Everyone knows that Ronald Acuna, Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis, Max Scherzer, and Gerritt Cole are on everyone’s list of players to draft in the first round. Where fantasy baseball really gets fun is when fantasy managers find gems in the late rounds, or better yet, when a waiver add ends up having a breakout year. This week, I want to highlight some of those “Out of Nowhere” players from the 2021 season, and explain why they should not only be rostered in every league, but also why they should be highly valued next season.
Strike 1
Baltimore outfielder Cedric Mullins is having an exceptional season. Mullins has already hit 21 home runs and stolen 22 bases this season and there is still a month and a half left of baseball. Interestingly, he has never hit more than 15 home runs in a season in the minor leagues. So, how is he doing so well this season?
For one thing, he has significantly increased his barrel rate from 3% in 2020 to 8.3% this season. Mullins also increased his Hard-hit rate from 31% last year to 40% this year. His 34% hard contact rate this season is only 3% lower than George Springer’s. Simply by increasing these three metrics, Mullins has been able to increase his power output.
Many may be worried that the .314 batting average is unsustainable after seeing his BABIP sitting at .354, but a batting average above .300 at season’s end does seem plausible. Things like line drive rate and a player’s speed, among many other factors, can influence BABIP, and both of those qualifiers seem to be propping up Mullins’ BABIP.
His 22% line drive rate is only 1% higher than it was last year, but he has done it over about 60 more games this season, and his infield hit rate is nearly 10%. Many of his batted ball metrics actually align very closely with new Dodgers Shortstop Trea Turner, who also possesses a high BABIP year after year. So, while some may see the high BABIP and worry, they should not.
Also helping Mullins’ case for being a legitimate .300 hitter is his plate discipline. He has decreased his chase rate and swinging strike rate each year since 2019, while simultaneously increasing his overall contact rate.
Fantasy managers should view Mullins as a borderline top 5 outfielder for the rest of this season, and as a top 10-15 outfielder for next year.
Strike 2
Editor’s Note: This piece was initially filed for posting on August 12
Another player who has seemingly come from out of relative mediocrity is Oakland starting pitcher Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has shown flashes of talent in years past, but has never put together a season like this before.
He never appeared to be a high strikeout type of pitcher until this season, his first averaging over nine strikeouts per nine innings. His previous highest rate was 8 K/9. That increase alone has boosted his fantasy baseball value this year. What most people want to know is if the strikeout rate and the 3.19 ERA are sustainable.
One thing that distinguishes Bassitt from other pitchers, and helps to legitimize the ERA and K/9 rate is that he throws six distinct pitches, and throws them all extremely well. Typically, pitchers do not throw more than five different pitches, and if they do throw more than that, at least one or two will be well below average. That is not the case for Bassitt.
He only has one pitch that has higher than a .257 batting average against, which is his cutter (.324 BAA), which he throws only 17% of the time – his most used pitch is his sinker, the one with the .257 BAA. His other four pitches (4-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball) all have a BAA of .182 or less. Also impressive is the fact that none of those pitches have higher than a .309 expected batting average against, so most are performing just as they should.
Bassitt is not blowing people away with speed, since his fastball and sinker each sit around 93 MPH as his fastest pitches, but despite the lack of speed on his pitches, he is getting batters out. Most of the advanced ERA metrics think his ERA will end up about half a run worse from this point on, because his BABIP and HR/FB rate are slightly below average, but Bassitt has found a way to get the job done this season and he is finally putting it all together.
Assuming he exhibits no ill effects after being struck by a line drive, Bassitt should be viewed as a top 30 starting pitcher for next year as there is only a slim chance he pitches again in the 2021 regular season.
Strike 3
Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia is also having a stellar year that seems to have come from nowhere. He showed promise in 2019 in the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system, but in two MLB stints previous to this year, he struggled, and the Cardinals seemingly gave up on the 28-year-old prospect. Garcia is taking his opportunity as an everyday player with the Rangers this season and is running with it.
Garcia will not impress anyone with his .250 batting average, but his power is enticing for fantasy baseball managers and is what keeps him relevant as a fantasy asset.
In most of his minor league seasons, Garcia hovered around a .250 batting average, so one can reasonably expect that to stay similar in the majors, but the power he showed in the minors should also stay similar in the majors.
This season his .240 ISO score, a metric that measures extra base hits, is 25th among qualified hitters in baseball and is tied with Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez. Garcia’s 13.9% barrel rate is tied with or close to the barrel rates of power hitters like Nelson Cruz, Teoscar Hernandez, and Eugenio Suarez. His Hard-hit rate is 13th among qualified outfielders, and is better than that of players like Joey Gallo, Mookie Betts, Mitch Haniger, and Randy Arozarena. All of that is fun and interesting to see, but it also helps to show that Garcia’s power is for real. Not to mention, his 22% HR/FB rate is right at his career average, so he is on a normal home run pace, and should finish with about 35 home runs.
One point of worry for Garcia managers is the batting average, but not because of BABIP. In fact, his BABIP is almost exactly his career number. Rather, his batting average is bogged down by lack of discipline. Garcia’s chase rate is nearly 40% and his swinging strike rate is about 17%, both of which are terrible. Unless he shows better discipline at the plate in Spring Training next year, Garcia will not be in the conversation as a top 30 outfielder, although he could finish among the top 25 outfielders this season.
