There are several purposes for acquiring a player from the waiver wire via FAAB. One is to roster a player with upside and staying power – a player who could represent a significant improvement to your roster and could make a difference. Another purpose is to get a streamer. This is a player you rent for a week, or two, hoping for an immediate statistical impact based on their advantageous upcoming schedule, or the fact that they are riding a hot streak.
Of course, there is always a chance that hot streak is your streamer actually breaking out. But it’s impossible to know. If there was a foolproof method to know when a hot streak is a breakout or a cold streak’s just a slump, we’d all be using it. I rely heavily on a player’s track record, but that can also be misleading. I traded Bryan Reynolds for Corbin Carroll in my friends and family league a month ago, thinking I had a sweetheart of a deal. I’m beginning to doubt that.
There is a third reason to acquire a player on waivers, and that is to stash him. This really is a subheading under Purpose No. 1 because you’re stashing a player with upside and staying power. At least, you believe he has staying power based on his track record. A recent stash for me was Tommy Edman. I picked up the Cardinals outfielder, who is also eligible at second base and shortstop. Edman, who has been out all season, may return around July 1st.
Edman, who is widely available in most leagues, has a 75% rostership in NFBC leagues. I can’t see the future, but there are three possible scenarios for Edman. Scenario No. 1 is that he never makes it back in 2024. Scenario No. 2 is that he makes it back but performs poorly. And Scenario No. 3 is that he makes it back and plays well. The last scenario is the reason I added Edman for $2 of FAAB Sunday night in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational.
When I moved into the top 10 in TGFBI a week ago, I called up Michael Richards, the 2022 TGFBI champion. My question was simple. How do I give myself the best possible chance of winning the overall? Richards told me that I should stash players that could provide massive upside to my team. Edman, who has stolen 30 plus bases twice in his career, could give me fifteen stolen bases in half of the season. This would really help me out.
Another player that I picked up on Sunday night was young Miami hurler Max Meyer. Selected third overall in the 2020 MLB draft, he underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022 – just weeks after making his major-league debut. Meyer made the Marlins opening day roster but was mysteriously sent back down to Triple-A on April 15 in spite of leading all Miami starters in wins and ERA after three starts. I’m expect him to be recalled soon.
In addition to team context, my concern with Meyer is whether he can assume a starter’s workload. But if is called up, and the Marlins decide to limit his innings, he also has the stuff to excel in a ninth-inning role. He has excellent movement on his mid-90’s fastball, one of the best sliders in baseball and an above- average changeup. I can squint a little and see Meyer becoming one of the best closers in the game if he went down that path.
METRICS FOR DECIDING ON WAIVER WIRE ADDS
If you are going to the waiver wire for a reason other than stashing players, you can trust your gut. But I’d also lean on some advanced statistics. Baseball is a very different game today than when we relied on “bubblegum card” numbers like batting average, home runs, wins and ERA to evaluate players. Now, with the technological breakthroughs of the past 10 years, we have so many statistics to choose from. Here are some that I find useful.
For batters, I’ll often sort each week by whatever positions I need. With the players I like, I compare the difference between their wOBA and xwOBA on Baseball Savant. Positive numbers mean lucky, negative numbers mean unlucky. Also, the further away from zero you get, the more likely regression to the mean is coming. If the player’s wOBA-xwOBA is near zero or even negative it’s more likely that a player is breaking out.
For pitchers, my screening process starts with their ratios. It’s not good enough for the player to have a low ERA, if he’s walking four or five batters a game. Next, I look at strikeouts. My typical process if I’m looking to add a starting pitcher is to compare players on my prescreened list by strikeouts over the last month. Again, I eliminate the guys with ERAs over 4.00 and WHIPs over 1.30. I’ll also check their swinging strike rates and strikeout percentages.
One last word about acquiring a player on the waiver wire. Before you put in your bid, be sure in your own mind that the player you are adding is better than the player you’re dropping. This is especially true in a deep league. I’ve shared this story before, but I will repeat it just to bring more humiliation into my life. I dropped Marcell Ozuna last year from my TGFBI team just days before he turned his season around. Try not to make that kind of mistake.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter at ThomasLSeltzer1.
