If you were in the Bronx in New York City in early June 1925, the strange noise you heard reverberating through cavernous Yankee Stadium was opportunity knocking.
On June 2, 1925, there were only about 6,000 fans in the stands as the New York Yankees were hosting the defending World Series champion Washington Senators. The Yankees came into the game with a record of 15-26, placing them in an unaccustomed seventh place, mainly because Babe Ruth missed the first two months of the season with a debilitating stomach virus. The day before in the first game of the four-game series, the great Walter Johnson beat the Yankees 5-3, sending the Bronx Bombers to their fifth straight loss. So manager Miller Huggins decided to shake things up by benching three of his starters. Howie Shanks replaced Aaron Ward at second base, Benny Bengough started in place of regular catcher Wally Schang, and Wally Pipp, in the midst of a 13 for 79 slump, was replaced at first base by a young slugger who hit .369 with 37 home runs for Hartford of the Eastern League in 1924. Lou Gehrig certainly heard that knock and took advantage of the opportunity for the next 14 years.
Wally Pipp then, despite the popular myth, was not benched because he had a headache on June 2. He did, however, become synonymous with losing one’s job and never getting it back. A headache or a slump are not the only ways such opportunities are created. Fair or not, an injury can put someone on the shelf long enough for another player to step in and permanently take the job. Often a trade will open a spot in the regular lineup. Not everyone succeeds like Gehrig when an opportunity comes, but in fantasy sports, recognizing the opportunities is the first step to get a jump on a player who might otherwise go unnoticed. Let’s see what early season opportunities have been created and not only who might seize them but also do well and never look back.
KEVIN SMITH, OAKLAND A’S
Sure, Matt Chapman was traded to the Blue Jays for Kevin Smith, who immediately stepped into the everyday third base job for Oakland. There’s your opportunity. But through his first 33 plate appearances, Kevin Smith has hit .161 with no home runs, 1 RBI and a 30% strikeout percentage. Seized it he has not. Now he’s sustained an ankle bone bruise and is on the injured list, creating yet another opportunity at third base primarily for Sheldon Neuse.
Don’t get fooled. Don’t pickup Neuse for your fantasy team. He has the look of a career utility infielder who will do exactly what he’s doing now…step into either second base or third base when someone gets injured and perform reasonably well for a limited period of time. The player to roster on your fantasy team is Smith. In three consecutive minor league seasons from 2018 to 2021, progressing a level each season, he had double figures in both home runs and stolen bases. Obviously if he can duplicate those numbers in the majors, he would be a fantasy force. The start to the season he’s had would belie that possibility. That is, until you look at some analytical numbers behind those stats. In those 33 plate appearances, his average exit velocity was 91 mph, good enough for the top 71 percentile in the league. His hard-hit percentage was 57%, placing him in the top 94 percentile. His sprint speed was ranked in the top 72 percentile of the league. While 33 plate appearances make for a small sample size, it was exactly this bat speed and the ability to barrel up the baseball that scouts touted in his minor league days with the Blue Jays. He was on course to join his minor league teammates Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio at the major league level. When the tools are there, they usually play at any level.
Of course, those same scouts also warned about the swing and miss element of his game. Indeed, his strikeout percentage every year in the minors was around 30%. However, most hitters who swing at balls outside the strike zone miss them, creating much of their swing and miss tendency. Smith on the other hand made contact an impressive 45% of the time on pitches thrown outside the strike zone. By way of comparison, Bryce Harper made contact 48% of the time in such situations last season. I would be much more worried about a hitter who swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone than a hitter who makes contact with pitches outside the zone. I become even less worried when that hard-hit percentage and exit velocity enter the picture.
Fantasy managers should always be on the lookout for position players who contribute to a particular statistic not normally associated with that position. You’ll always have an advantage over your league owners who can’t match that statistic at that position. Catchers who steal bases are rotisserie gold. Power hitting middle infielders are always at a premium. Likewise, try to think of all the third basemen who are capable of double-digit steals. When he recovers from his injury, the A’s would do well to give Kevin Smith the third base job once again and give him a chance to showcase his elite tools. You would do well to do the same.
SETH BEER, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
While most opportunities arise out of injuries, a slump or a trade, Seth Beer really had to go to the extreme to get his. Major League Baseball had to make a rule change to get Beer an opportunity. Beer consistently raked in the minor leagues. He hit 16 home runs with a .950 OPS for Houston’s Double-A team in 2019 and hit another 16 home runs with a .909 OPS for Arizona’s Triple-A team in 2021. However, the rap on Beer was always that he would be without a position in the major leagues. He would be a liability at either first base or the outfield, a conundrum exacerbated by his trade from the Astros to the National League Diamondbacks at the trade deadline in 2019. But perhaps the Diamondbacks anticipated the National League’s adoption of the designated hitter rule when they made that trade. This season, the rule change has given Beer the opportunity to finally rake in the major leagues. And rake he has. He has been the one and only bright light in an otherwise dim lineup for the Diamondbacks. So far this season he has an OPS of .909 compared to the Diamondbacks’ .612 team OPS and his sizzling .341 batting average sticks out like a sore thumb in the midst of Arizona’s sickly .189 team batting average. Yes, that .341 batting average is supported by an unsustainable .452 BABIP, but Beer doesn’t have to hit .341 to make a significant impact on Arizona’s lineup or your fantasy lineup.
There is some risk involved because he will be pitched around from time to time stuck in that lineup but he plays in a hitter friendly ballpark and there are underlying metrics pointing towards consistent offensive production. His 11.8% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate are respectable for a young power hitter. His 43.8% hard-hit percentage ranks in the top half of the league and his average exit velocity of 91 mph ranks in the top quarter. But he doesn’t only hit the ball hard. What good is hitting the ball hard if you don’t do it very often? Beer makes contact with the baseball 75.3% of the time he swings. So he hits the ball hard and often. Beer has finally gotten his opportunity to show his stroke at the plate, thanks to the stroke of a pen.
THAIRO ESTRADA, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The life of a utility infielder in major league baseball can be both rewarding and frustrating. On the one hand, they’ll always have a job. All teams look for players who can play multiple positions and fill in where needed when injuries occur. On the other hand, they can’t keep from thinking that if they only had the opportunity to play every day, they would translate their part-time success to full-time.
So far in his career, Thairo Estrada has been a model utility infielder. For his first two seasons in the majors, he was stuck in the infield morass that was the New York Yankees. Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, Gio Urshela and Miguel Andujar ate up all the playing time, leaving just a few crumbs for Estrada. He only managed to get 64 AB in 2019 and 48 in 2020. The Yankees then traded Estrada to the Giants in April of 2021 for cash considerations. Terrific…different team, same infield morass. This time, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella and Wilmer Flores limited Estrada to only 121 AB in 2021. Estrada produced in his limited playing time, posting a .732 OPS for the Yankees in 2019 and an .813 OPS for the Giants last season. Could he possibly produce those numbers if ever given the opportunity to play everyday? It’s the question that haunts all utility infielders.
Enter La Stella’s Achilles surgery last October. The veteran infielder is still recovering from it as of the beginning of this season, paving the way for Estrada to play everyday at second base. So far, he has taken full advantage of the opportunity, posting a .312 wOBA, a 105 wRC+ and an average exit velocity of 87.8 mph. Those are not eye-popping numbers, but they are all above league average. Compare them to another former “utility” player who now plays mostly everyday for the Dodgers. Chris Taylor has a .328 wOBA, a 107 wRC+ and an average exit velocity of 88.5 mph. Similar numbers but the difference between the two is that Taylor probably is not available in your fantasy league, while Estrada very well might be. Also, because no one has seen him play in more than a handful of games, no one knew that Estrada could run. So far this season (attention roto owners) he’s stolen 3 bases and is ranked in the top 73 percentile in sprint speed.
Tommy La Stella might never get his full-time job back. But look on the bright side. No one would ever know the name Wally Pipp today if Miller Huggins hadn’t sat him for the second game of that four-game series against the Senators in 1925.
