We are now a week into the baseball season, and life is glorious. While last week we discussed some things to not overreact to, as well as things to be on the lookout for with regard to emerging trends, we now have enough games if not to measure changes in ability, certainly to observe changes in opportunity.
But first, how did you do on not overreacting to the things I told you not to overreact to last week? With Clayton Kershaw, it was easy. He’s Clayton Kershaw, and he will not always pitch at Coors Field, where he is typically a league average starting pitcher. and not Clayton Kershaw. His follow up start was a much more Kershaw-ian 7 inning, 4 hit, 8 K outing that resulted in a convincing win over the A’s.
As for the Rangers and Royals, they followed up their torrid 14-10 affair on opening day with another 15 total runs on Saturday and 10 on Sunday before going their separate ways. Yet once they started playing other teams, their own run totals started to fall of dramatically. These teams can still hit in the right matchups and situations, but the lack of talent on their own pitching staffs far and away overrides whatever hitting talent they might have.
On to some players that are getting some additional opportunity to start the season…
Back in spring training I covered some less-heralded names that were given an opportunity to hit atop their respective batting orders, as this would amplify their skill sets due to the increased amount of plate appearances leadoff hitters get. The hitters identified were Myles Straw, Victor Robles, Raimel Tapia and Josh Rojas. Of those four, we’ve only seen Tapia have a modicum of success at the top of the order (or at least enough to stay at the to of the order), as Rojas has struggled mightily in any opportunities he’s been given (not unlike the DBacks as a whole), Straw has been relegated to the bottom third of the prolific Houston order and Robles has only had 3 games due to the Nats COVID issues.
But even Tapia is not the most interesting opportunity earner on his own team, as that award is clearly starting to belong to…
Garret Hampson
Ever the fantasy breakout darling, Hampson has been a fourth outfielder/utility type on a team that seemingly employs several fourth outfielder types at a time. The resulting lack of playing time has made being a meaningful fantasy asset a pipe dream. However, with David Dahl now on the Rangers, an organization that has no interest in competing for wins, and no one but Trevor Story locked into an everyday role, Hampson’s ship may finally have come in.
Having wrestled the leadoff spot away from Tapia for the first time Wednesday evening, Hampson responded with three stolen bases in a single game, leading the Rockies to an 8-0 win over Arizona. He followed up that performance with another leadoff gig in Thursday’s getaway day matinee, stealing yet another bag and scoring a pair of runs for good measure.
While he is incredibly cheap in DFS, he likely won’t be by the time the Rockies return to Coors. And while the positive BABIP effect that Coors has won’t play while the Rockies are on the road, Hampson’s speed absolutely will, so you’ll want to consider him as a value piece of your lineup, especially if he can maintain 2B/OF eligibility. As for season long, Hampson is presumably already spoken for, and it is unlikely that his owner didn’t notice the four steals over the last two days, but if he is for some reason available, feel free to unload your clip of FAAB in an effort to pick him up.
Austin Slater
There was a lot of chatter in the off-season about a utility player that was going to see looks not only all over the field but in all parts of the lineup, and that the same player had recently put on 25-plus pounds of muscle to improve durability for the long, grueling season ahead. There were great expectations for this player. All of this is about Mauricio Dubon, who has been disappointing to start, hitting only .167 with four strikeouts in 13 plate appearances. The player that has somewhat lived up to expectations in a similar role is Austin Slater.
Slater leads the Giants in plate appearances, manning the leadoff spot against lefthanded pitching and dropping down to the bottom third of the order against righties. He hasn’t been great, by the look of the surface numbers. Not many of the Giants have. He is, however, absolutely crushing the ball, to the tune of a 53.8% hard hit rate. So, while the batting average and home runs aren’t there yet, if Slater continues to see this amount of opportunity, the surface numbers will begin to catch up. He is absolutely a player to target via FAAB and when priced appropriately in DFS.
Tyler Glasnow
I’m not going out of my way to discuss Tyler Glasnow this week, but the guy is just such a different talent than how he is generally regarded across the industry. While no one doubts the skill set, there is this hesitancy that most folks have about Glasnow, either because of his past issues with injury and command or the Rays player development tendencies to not give him a long leash that seems to artificially cap his potential.
I’m here to tell you all of that is bunk. The story is simple- a pitcher drafted by the Pirates ends up in the AL East and morphs into a fire-breathing dynamo with a signature high in the zone fastball pushing 101 and a wipeout slider. I would forgive you for thinking that was a Gerrit Cole sentence, but that was in fact a Tyler Glasnow sentence.
The command has been there. The control has been there. The velocity, poise and execution of the new slider have all been there. This year, through two starts, Glasnow has been a force to be reckoned with, striking out 15 and walking only two in 12 innings. As a source of even more optimism, the Rays let him go 97 pitches in just his second start of the season, a hopeful sign that Glasnow finally putting together his skills and the Rays giving him an opportunity to exhibit them to the fullest of his abilities will coincide.
Another factor worth considering is that the Rays don’t have much in the way of other pitching. Starting pitching, relief pitching, whatever we’re calling Ryan Yarbrough… there isn’t much of it available. In the past it has been very much the Rays public modus operandi to not let starters go too deep into games, as exemplified by Blake Snell’s departure from both Game 6 of the World Series and the franchise. But without the elite bullpen we’ve seen in years past, and without the starting pitching depth that will allow the bullpen to be as rested as we’ve seen in years past, we may see the Rays shift course and allow Glasnow the length he needs to join to tier of truly elite starters that includes only Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber at present.
