In some respects, the FAAB process is like a fantasy auction. Often, in auctions, owners spend freely early on. Thereafter, there is a lull, and near the end, owners with money loosen the purse strings and start spending again. On occasion, you can find bargains near the middle of the draft as owners are saving money hoping to get the player(s) that they’ve been targeting, but hasn’t been called just yet.
FAAB follows a similar pattern. The first few weeks of FAAB are like the Wild West. Everyone is participating and there are no governors. Owners see the shortcomings of their draft, and figuring that there is an entire season of stats, spend early in an attempt to fill those holes, often in the bullpen. Using my NFBC Main league as an example, check out these free spending examples in April:
April 1
Hunter Strickland $364 (Sons of the DL)
Keynan Middleton $179 (Dawson)
April 8
Matt Albers $300 (Boston Guys)
Jacob Barnes $266 (Pine Tar Pros –ME)
April 15
Franchy Cordero $241 (Creativesports Buster)
Bud Norris $115 (Warner ME 1)
Brandon Nimmo $114 (Yokum)
April 22
Denard Span $131 (Dawson)
April 29
Gleyber Torres $489 (Icy Manipulators)
Jesus Aguilar $107 (oconnell)
Brad Miller $106 (Cox)
Eleven players going for more than $100 of a team’s $1,000 budget, and each of the eleven players taken by different teams.
The free spending continued into May, with another nine players going for more than $100. Bids included $300 on Tyler Clippard, $207 on Domingo German, $157 on Mike Soroka, and $157 on Fernando Romero.
In June, predictably as teams were running short on FAAB, overall bidding slowed on key acquisitions. Only two players eclipsed the $100 mark, and bargains among the highly sought after (top three players bid upon during any given period), began to appear. I was fortunate to get Max Muncy on June 3 for just $43. Sons of the DL picked up Sam Dyson for $44, and I nabbed Freddy Peralta for $56. Looking at April bidding on closers, one would have expected that Dyson would go for significantly more. Just look at Albers and Strickland.
My team is currently in the top 60 overall, and in 2nd place in my league as of this writing. Nine of my thirty players have been plucked off the waiver wire, including Matt Duffy, Eduardo Escobar, Devin Mesoraco, Niko Goodrum, Seranthony Dominguez, Max Muncy, Kole Calhoun and Freddie Peralta. This doesn’t even include the recently cut Franchy Cordero who contributed until his injuries. I couldn’t compete without these players.
Yet, it isn’t all good. For every hit, there is at least one miss. I wasted FAAB on Jody Mercer, Kike Hernandez (shouldn’t have cut him), Martin Maldonado, Nick Kingham, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Covey and Justin Anderson.
Shift now to July, and as money is running out (just 28% of FAAB remains to be spend) and as owners are seeing their teams flounder, spending becomes tighter. $10 players become $3 players, $3 players go for a buck. This is expected. What isn’t expected is for a team now to put 40-50% of its budget toward one remaining players.
While it’s unexpected, I’m advocating for doing just that. At present, I am sitting with $154 FAAB remaining. This doesn’t both me too much. Looking into my crystal ball, I don’t anticipate a large number of potential impact players getting the call. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out with a patellar tendon issue. Nick Senzel is out for the year. Eloy Jimenez isn’t getting the call. Ditto for Frenando Tatis, Jr.
Kyle Tucker might get up and might make an impact. So what? There are 14 other teams in the league, and if I hold onto my FAAB waiting on Tucker, and even if he gets the call, there’s a reasonably good chance that I will have missed out on a number of other contributors.
We only start 23 players. For most competitive teams, at least 20 of those spots are locked. With so few potential impact players around, spending whatever it takes, even if it is significantly more than the second place bid, on a player who can fill one of the three or so spots needing improvement is certainly worth it.
Things invariably get tougher from mid-August until the end of the season. Now is the time to get a jump start ahead of the competition and get the best difference maker available at this time, even if a better difference maker potentially will be available later.
I’ll have about $20 left when some potential superstar gets called up on September 1. He might even perform like a potential superstar, and he will most certainly be performing on someone else’s team. I’m ok with that. I’ll take the Max Muncys, the Freddie Peraltas and the Niko Goodrums of the world, and let those thrifty owners spend big in September. If things go as I hope, it won’t really matter.
Best of luck,
Buster
