For some owners, the day after the Super Bowl marks the official beginning of the fantasy baseball draft prep season. For other owners, also known as the procrastinators, the draft prep season begins just a few days before their drafts. As for myself, when a copy of The Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition arrives in my mailbox, I know it’s time to get to work.
This past Thursday was indeed the big day, and while I have yet to spend much time flipping through the pages, the first thing I always do is revisit my Picks and Pans (check out the intro to this article from November for a complete definition of Picks and Pans) to find out if any other industry gurus commented on the same player. Although it is reassuring to know that someone else shares my opinion, I’m more interested in the disagreements. On that note, let’s take a look at five guys who were picked by some but panned by others. Note that my decisions are in bold. And be sure to purchase the magazine. You won’t regret that decision.
Matt Kemp (3 Picks, 1 Pan) – What’s not to like about spending a late-round pick (Kemp was drafted 267th overall in my most recent mock) on a player with legitimate 30/100 potential if healthy? I know he wasn’t healthy last year but from a pure performance standpoint, Kemp was still productive. And don’t forget that he’s just two seasons removed from a 35-home run campaign.
Trevor Bauer (4 Picks, 1 Pan) – The maddeningly inconsistent Bauer finally figured things out in the second half last season, going 10-2 with a 3.01 ERA after carrying a 5.24 ERA into the All-Star break. Word is that a change in pitch selection was the main reason for the turnaround. Maybe this is just another tease from a pitcher who has made a habit of teasing his fantasy owners, but 83.6 innings is a legitimate sample size. Keep an eye on where Bauer is being taken throughout the mock draft season. If you can get the 27-year-old righty as a fourth or fifth starter in a mixed league, he’s well worth the investment. Then again, the market might overvalue him.
Rhys Hoskins (1 Pick, 2 Pans) – This is all about the cost. Hoskins is obviously a high-end talent, but he was drafted 34th overall in my latest industry mock, which seems a bit aggressive for a player with a 50-game big league track record. Can we see a little more before considering him a clear-cut top-40 selection? There’s no way I’ll be willing to pay that price.
Whit Merrifield (2 Picks, 3 Pans) – Speaking of that same industry mock, Merrifield went off the board at pick #68. Drafting him that high is simply asking for trouble. I’m a believer in the speed, but to share a portion of my comment for the magazine, Merrifield registered 46 homers in 725 career minor league games before hitting 19 home runs in 145 games for the Royals last season. Plus, his minor league batting average was .274, well below the .288 AVG he posted for Kansas City in 2017. He could turn out to be a very expensive one-category specialist.
Avisail Garcia (1 Pick, 7 Pans) – I don’t mind being in the minority. OK, this makes me a little nervous. The consensus opinion is that Garcia’s price tag will be inflated by last season’s .330 AVG, which was aided greatly by a .392 BABIP. And I totally agree that we shouldn’t expect anything close to a .330 AVG. But is a power jump to 25 homers to go along with a .285 batting average out of the question for the 26-year-old? I think not. As for the inflated price concern, Garcia was drafted at 14.14 in the aforementioned 15-team mock. That’s hardly inflated. Not to raise the bar too high or anything, but could Garcia be this year’s version of Marcell Ozuna?
Wait, forget I said that. A final line of .285-25-85 would suit me just fine.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @ZachMLB
